The Future of Work, Technology, Income Gaps and the Role of Governments
A think piece for the ESPAS 2016 conference by Ibon Zugasti (@ibonzugasti), Futurist, Chairman of the Millenium Project Node in Spain, Vice-President of the Foresight Europe Network
The future of work and technology and increasing income gaps are among the most discussed topics of long-term prospects at the moment. However, systemic perspectives and global as well as local strategies to improve the long-term outlook are often lacking. Government long-term and large-scale strategies are needed to address the potential scope and spectrum of unemployment and income gaps in the foreseeable future due to the acceleration, globalisation, and integration of technological capacities and population growth.
Some key facts:
- The World Bank has shown that the rate and level of poverty is falling worldwide; however, income gaps are growing. Oxfam found that the richest 1% of the population owns about 46% of global wealth, while the bottom 50% of the population barely owns some 0.7% of the world’s wealth, about the same as the world’s 85 richest people.
- The OECD estimates that technology is likely to account for some 80% of the drop in the labour share among its members.
- Since the rate of return for investments into high tech and financial instruments is so much greater than investment into labour, the income gaps are likely to increase, making the world increasingly unstable.
- According to the World Bank, a billion people will enter the job market over the next ten years, while one projection expects 2 billion jobs to be lost by 2030.
And, what is the role of Governments?
Government long-term and large-scale strategies are needed to address the potential scope and spectrum of unemployment and income gaps in the foreseeable future due to the acceleration, globalisation, and integration of technological capacities and population growth.
The Millennium Project is currently conducting a global study to help Governments create a set of long-range phased strategies to address future technology-work dynamics and income gaps. The results have been used to create three Future Work/Technology Global 2050 Scenarios, as input to national planning workshops organized by Millennium Project Node chairs around the world (www.millennium-project.org/millennium/AI-Work.html).
