#PowerToX Part I: ENERGY SUPPLY — The most important driver of climate change and how we can tackle it.
A blog series divided into 6 parts.
Although everyone of is currently quite busy fighting the current COVID19 crisis and its impacts, we at Sharkbite firmly believe that one may also not forget to prepare for the time when the current crisis is overcome.
Many voices already said that the COVID19 crisis is only a small herald compared to the climate crisis which might be comping up:
So, with this blog series, we aim to bring the topic back on the radar. Whether we really have to face a climate crisis, or if we are able to act quickly enough remains unknown. But one thing is for sure: Climate change is real and we want to address it from the facts.
BLOG SERIES PART ONE: Why climate change is real and why it matters
Energy Supply is the most important driver of climate change and we wanted to take time to have a fact-based approach to a heated discussion.
Climate change has been a trending topic during past years at an unprecedented rate, due to its potential impact on all of us as human beings living on this planet. At the same time, rarely has any other topic produced such emotional, fact-denying and sometimes even aggressive discussion. This blog series aims to provide the Sharkbite view — a fact-based approach reflecting scientific research — on the issue, the role of CO2emissions and the potential solutions.
So why is all this fuss around climate change actually happening? Hasn’t climate always significantly varied since the birth of the planet — so forever?
Yes, variation has been happening since the beginning. However, with each of those variations came a lot of consequences that impacted all inhabitants of earth, like for example the last ice age which led to the complete extinction of various species.
So, unless we want to become extinct, it is of utmost importance to pay attention to climate developments in order to ensure the survival of today’s species, and us humans in particular.
Right, but again: Is the actual change not just a normal variance that usually occurs?
No, actually it is not. If we take a look back beyond the past 1,000 years at, for example, ice sediment evaluation, we can see that the planet is warming at a pace not experienced ever before:
Looking at the temperature development over the past centuries, we can see that the temperature deviance we have observed since the beginning of industrialization (UK industrialization began around 1780, so we can already observe an advanced state by 1880) is by far outside the variance of the past 100 years.
The global average surface temperature rose 0.6 to 0.9 degrees Celsius between 1906 and 2005, and the rate of temperature increase has nearly doubled in the last 50 years.
So, what are the possible underlying causes of this observation?
First, let’s look at the possible “normal” changes that could have impacted this development:
1. Change of earth’s orbit: Big planets like Saturn and Jupiter influence earth’s orbit and as a consequence also impact climate conditions. However, these are developments usually spanning timeframes of approximately 100,000 years. Looking at earth’s orbit parameters of past 100 years, it shows that it has been relatively stable in contrast to the temperature curve.
2. Sun activity: Same thing as before; the variance in sunspot activity during the past 100 years has been rather stable and does not correlate with temperature variance.
3. Volcanic activity: Sure, there have been few volcanic eruptions during past 100 years which also affect temperature development. However, volcanic eruptions send vast amounts of particles into the atmosphere and stratosphere which then reflect sunlight — resulting in a decrease of temperature on earth, not an increase. Also, these effects usually normalize again after few years.
That leaves us with man-made activities that could influence average temperature:
1. Deforestation: Forests actually absorb light. Deforested areas are bright and thus reflect sunlight back into the universe. So, if anything, deforestation leads to minimal cooling, not increased average temperature (taken the reduction of trees as CO2-containers already into account). [JS1]
2. Ozone pollution: Factory fumes include ozone emissions that lead to a slight warming in polluted areas. However, the accent[RH2] is so slight and locally isolated, so that the effect of +1 degree Celsius average temperature cannot be explained.
3. Aerosol pollution: This is basically all the dirt emitted by industrial activities and factories. Thankfully, in the Western world, this is combatted by intensive investments in filter technique. Today this is a greater issue in India and China, but again, all these particles and debris reflect sunlight back into universe and thus lead to a cooling effect, and ironically this cooling effect will vanish once India and China will add filter techniques to their factories.
4. Greenhouse gases: The burning of fossil fuels, or raw materials of all kinds, produces vast amounts of greenhouse gases.
The following graph shows the first instance in our list of a correlation between increased burning of fossil fuels and increased average. In fact, the effect of greenhouse gases would even account for more than +1 degree Celsius warming.
If we were to reduce this by the cooling effect resulting from Smog and Aerosol pollution as well as the cooling from volcanic activity, we pretty much match the temperature development curve.
Aha. So, the reason for the observed approximately +1 degree Celsius degree increase are Greenhouse Gases, right?
According to the vast majority of scientists and reviewing all the facts and figures: Yes. There is no alternative valid explanation — even a half-baked one — known.
Let’s take a quick look at how the CO2 effect actually works.
In general, to heat something up, energy has to be added. The same theory applies to your water boiler at home, as it does to the whole planet. So, earth’s energy balance determines its temperature level.
Now, energy comes towards earth in the form of sunlight. Most of that energy is reflected back to space, but thanks to our atmosphere some of the energy is retained on earth in the form of heat staying within our “greenhouse” thanks to the glass roof. This effect is crucial for our life, as without it our planet would be way too cold to sustain life.
CO2 and other gases fortify this effect, in a way they provide a thicker glass if we were using our winter garden metaphor.
Therefore more of the sun’s energy stays within our atmosphere and it slowly but steadily gets warmer and warmer. This is why CO2 and other gasses are called greenhouse gases.
The picture above explains this in more detail, but you can find a more elaborate technical explanation by clicking on the source link provided.
This is actually not new information at all. It was initially discovered by Joseph Fourier around 1822. In 1982, a team of scientists revisited the topic and made remarkably appropriate forecasts of CO2 emissions and temperature development, as seen in the graph:
Unfortunately, this team of scientists were working for EXXON, who decided to hide the research in their basement and favor a converse communication campaign instead.
Puh, that was a lot of theoretical stuff. What was this blog series actually about again?
The blog series is about discussing a possible solution to the challenges of climate change we’re facing. But before we can discuss the solution we first all have to have a basic consistent understanding of the problem — and unfortunately that was not possible in five sentences!
We could explain even further!
Bah, no. I don’t really care. A couple of degrees more would be nice, right? I like the recent summers!
Well in this case we have a different outlook for you: If you intend to grow a bit older or have children or grandchildren, take a look at this graph to see the observed trend that will into the future.
Now you may not live in the “deadly” areas and so think this doesn’t affect you, but it does. You will be affected by this shift in different ways, by migration effects and the struggle for resources to name a few.
Luckily, experts and scientists agree that it is not too late, and we are still able to prevent this temperature rise from happening. However we need to take certain actions. Want to know what you can do? Stay tuned for more blogs in the series!
This blog is a part of a six part series highlighting a possible solution for fighting climate change and still meeting our energy demand.
The series is based on known scientific facts and is broken down as follows:
- Why climate change is real, and why it matters
- How greenhouse gases get into the atmosphere and who is responsible
- An exemplary sector use case: Mobility could be run on non-fossil fuels
- The disadvantages of hydrogen mobility and how we solve those
- What are the consequences if we could transfer global energy supply to Power-to-X
- What is likely to happen and what can we each contribute personally
