Decoding Systems Change: Actionable Insights and Recommendations

Contributed by Carne Ross.

In 1986, the Chernobyl nuclear reactor melted down, immediately killing scores of people and spreading a cloud of radioactivity across Europe. The authorities soon homed in on the cause and the alleged culprit. The managers on duty had mishandled a safety test causing the reactor to go into uncontrolled chain reaction. They were duly scapegoated and prosecuted.

But a deeper look revealed a different picture and true causes, which were the product of a systemic culture of fear, secrecy and lack of accountability that characterized the Soviet apparat. The design of the reactor was flawed but, rushing the design into production, the authorities had not shared this information. This cover-up was, in turn, a function of communist ideology that saw itself in competition with the capitalist West.

Notably, these were longer-term factors, in contrast to the short-term actions that immediately triggered the disaster. However, these were the systems that ultimately precipitated those actions and the accident. Understanding this is systems thinking: the patterns, cultures and mental models from which all phenomena ultimately arise. Systems thinking is about root causes.

Any social, political or environmental outcome arises from a system. Unfortunately, a bit like the Soviet authorities who blamed the managers, our minds tend to think in linear terms. Factor A leads to Effect B which results in Outcome C. But for almost any social, environmental or economic problem, linear thinking is a trap. After all, many and sometimes indefinable factors lead to any particular outcome, whether it’s climate warming, poverty or migration. These factors form a complex system of multiple inputs and outputs, and non-linear change that connects them, with feedback loops and time lags. This is not just complicated, it’s complex, to use the technical term. It is neither order nor chaos, but something in-between: innumerable actors, unpredictable and in constant flux.

However, this should not overwhelm or paralyze those interested in honing systems thinking and engaging in systems change work. A number of actionable insights and guidance can help.

How to Adopt Systems Thinking

If we are to address root causes, we have to come to grips with complex systems. We would prefer to believe that fixing one part of the system will fix the whole, but this is wrong. Indeed, we might end up making the problem worse, especially if we consider the longer term. This is at the root of a key insight of systems thinking: long term outcomes may be different, indeed opposite to, short term effects.

Systems thinking obliges us to look at the whole system that gives rise to the problem, not just understand its individual parts. We need to use the right hemisphere of our brain, which embraces such holistic thinking, as much as the more analytical left hemisphere, which is good at breaking things down into their constituent elements. Here are specific techniques to help philanthropy implement systems thinking:

1. First, we need to convene the stakeholders, particularly those most affected — because they know the problem best. Together, we need to map the system guided by the following questions: (1) what are the factors that contribute to the outcome?; (2) how do they interact?; (3) do they work differently in the short rather than the longer run? One benefit of bringing stakeholders together is that we can begin to unite them around a common purpose of fixing the problem. We can also start to identify accountabilities, but without assigning often counterproductive blame.
2. Once we’ve mapped the system, we need to work out where we can effectively intervene. Where is leverage? Are there positive feedback loops we can exploit and accelerate? Interventions can take many forms–lobbying for new rules, building coalitions, sending a signal through our own conduct. One of the most important interventions can be to correct information deficits, one of the commonest causes of systems failure. For instance, when fish stocks decline, prices go up, sending precisely the wrong signal to fishermen who are then incentivised to increase fishing. These kinds of deficits can be among the simplest, and most important, to remedy.
3. Systems thinking requires humility and agility. Complex systems are dynamic and unpredictable. We cannot necessarily tell which interventions will work. We have to constantly monitor, check and adjust our tactics, as well as design appropriate metrics but without reducing everything to metrics: We must remember that not all factors — notably ideas or cultures– are measurable. Indeed, such reductivism is itself a problem because it implies that in fixing one part, we’ve fixed the whole.
4. And we need different kinds of organizations in order best to address complex systems. Rigid hierarchies don’t work well. Like the systems themselves organisations need to be diverse, eclectic, and distributed where individuals and groups at the frontline are empowered to respond quickly and dynamically to local circumstances. This means putting our faith in local agents. We must remember the power of diversity and of centering those most affected by a problem. Diversity–whether of gender, race, disability and more–is not only the right thing to promote, it also makes coalitions stronger and more capable of taking on the eclectic, variegated nature of complex systems. We need multiple approaches, which may best originate bottom-up, not top-down. Such adaptable, decentralized organizations also happen to be more resilient (and, I would bet, more fun to work for). For philanthropists, there is no single best solution to any given problem, whatever an applicant for funding may claim. It is only after launching many ships that we can tell which ones will get across.

At its ultimate, systems thinking is about ideas and indeed moral values. Just like the Soviet system that ultimately caused the Chernobyl disaster, all systems — including our own — lie within a broader paradigm of how we think humans should live with one another and treat nature. Our current paradigm centers growth and profit over the needs of the planet, and indeed society. I hope that we are in the throes of a fundamental paradigm shift to a fairer, more tolerant society and more sustainable, circular economics. And it is systems thinking that will help get us there.

Carne Ross is a writer and consultant. He founded the non-profit diplomatic advisory group, Independent Diplomat. Before that he served as a British diplomat.