Top Shot Is Coming: Offseason Announcements, Ranked
There are less than two weeks to go until the new NBA season. While moves have been made at the team level signings, retirements, new rookies drafted- in my mind, the most exciting development has happened far away from the game itself: NBA Top Shot is gearing up for a year unlike any other.
Let’s take a look at how we got here.
NBA Top Shot exited closed beta about a year ago, and in those early days, the site was sparsely populated and packs were easy to come by. Around the end of 2020, the site began to pick up steam, and valuations started to rise.
I first came across Top Shot in February of this year, sitting in a hospital room. My son had surgery and spent a few days recovering, and my wife and I were trading shifts accompanying him in his room.
Over the first couple of months of the year, I began a brief but unsuccessful trip into day trading stocks. During that time, scrolling through my Twitter feed I came across a blog post I’ve long since lost that detailed a collector buying a pack and flipping it for profit. I didn’t realize at the time, but tens of thousands of others would join the site that same month.
And then things went south.
From March through August, NBA Top Shot was a rough experience.
Not literally- the site was seeing continuous UI upgrades as it became easier to use and navigate- but prices kept falling, and falling, and falling. For many collectors, Top Shot was a gateway drug into the broader world of NFTs, so if you were lucky, your success elsewhere more than made up for declining Moment values.
Still, it looked bleak. Collectors kept asking for marketing to be turned on during the playoffs, wanting to capitalize on the excitement of the postseason to generate more traffic. Instead, things went fairly quiet, at least until the offseason.
In case you haven’t paid attention over the last couple of months, there has been a flood of announcements, drops, and marketing heading into the new NBA season, that suggest that NBA Top Shot is ready for the spotlight.
Let’s review these, in order of what I believe will prove most important to Top Shot’s success.
WNBA Pack Drops
The Top Shot team surprised many users when they announced the first of multiple WNBA pack drops early in the summer. Now, don’t get me wrong. I think it’s fantastic that the WNBA is involved in NBA Top Shot; the game is high quality, it’s great to have competitive basketball over the summer, and more representation is a great thing, in sports or otherwise.
But I don’t see it meaningfully moving the needle for most new collectors. It’s a nice to have, but doubtful to make a huge difference long term.
Top Shot Impact: 1.5/10
Marketplace Display In ETH
Late in the summer, collectors noticed a change that was quietly implemented in the marketplace: We were now able to toggle between displaying prices in USD or Ethereum.
It doesn’t take a psychology degree to know that displaying a Moment as costing 0.004 ETH instead of $7 makes it seem cheaper. Particularly for those of us used to buying and selling NFTs in ETH, this change was a welcome one, and will hopefully allow collectors to spend more freely when they think about how easily they drop 0.2ETH on trash that sits in their Opensea wallets untouched for months.
Top Shot Impact: 3/10
Access Unlocked NBA Draft Experience
Much like NBA Top Shot did for Game 5 of the Finals, the team chose a number of lucky fans to attend the NBA Draft, an experience that also included meeting players over dinner and an all-expenses paid trip to New York City.
Having this promotion on for the draft, during an otherwise quiet period for the NBA, made it clear that NBA Top Shot wants to make collecting a year-round experience, and that rewards for Moment ownership can come in all kinds of unexpected ways. They were flexing their muscle here, and it showed.
Top Shot Impact: 5/10
NBA Run It Back 2005–2006
We knew Run It Back was coming sometime around the beginning of the season, but speculation was rampant as to which year they would choose. To me, 2005–2006 was a great choice.
The year is far enough back that we’ll see a number of legendary stars that haven’t been featured on Top Shot before (Dwyane Wade, for example, has already been announced) but not so far back that current collectors won’t be as interested (I’m sure I’m one of the only ones excited for a Dolph Schayes “Jews of the NBA” Moment that may never come.)
It’s reasonable to hope that a year like 2006 is far enough back to bring in some new collectors that feel some nostalgia for a year that far back, and have some emotional connection to that era.
Top Shot Impact: 7.5/10
NBA Marketing Machine
It’s a beautiful thing.
It’s easy to forget, but the NBA isn’t just partnered with Dapper Labs, the parent company of NBA Top Shot. It has an equity stake, so it’s invested in the success of NBA Top Shot. The NBA is not just going to allow it to fade into obscurity.
The NBA tweeting about Top Shot to its 35 million Twitter followers is not just a sign that Top Shot is ready for an influx of new users, but that the partnership will consist of more than just a steady supply of Moments; the NBA wants to put Top Shot front and center.
Top Shot Impact: 8/10
NBA Fandom Tier At Summer League
Until this summer, there were 3 tiers of Moments that had been released to the public: Common, Rare, and Legendary. At Summer League, Top Shot introduced the Fandom tier, which would live between Common and Rare, via Moments that were minted from games that fans actually attended.
This announcement was huge. The idea of fans being able to attend a game, purchase a pack on their phones, and receive a Moment FROM THE GAME THEY ATTENDED is enormous. What better way to engage fans than to promise them a digital souvenir from a play that they witnessed in person? To my mind, it will prove to be a huge draw during the season, depending on how often it’s used.
I expect this tier to be used liberally in the coming years, as Top Shot onboards new collectors.
Top Shot Impact: 9/10
NBA Top Shot Kiosks At Summer League
Paired with the Fandom tier, Top Shot kiosks at NBA games are the holy grail. You no doubt read about the Summer League experience, and how well executed the Top Shot kiosk was. The prospects for the season are tantalizing. While we don’t know exactly how many games will feature the kiosks, but the team has communicated that they can be expected throughout the season. A beautiful, inviting display at a game, where new collectors can sign up and purchase a pack, will be a great way to expand beyond the current userbase and grow the platform.
If you’ve never heard of NBA Top Shot before, as most NBA fans haven’t, then being introduced via this impressive experience sends a clear message that you’re missing out if you’re not a part of it.
Top Shot Impact: 10/10
I don’t think there’s a single Top Shot collector that could say that it’s been a quiet offseason for the site. There have been site upgrades, pack drops, and announcements galore. Amazingly, I’m more excited for the coming season than I was during last year’s Finals. NBA Top Shot is here to stay, and the best is yet to come.
