Taking a Quick Dip
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
Top Shot is many things to many people: a pathway into NFTs for some, a place where basketball fans can collect moments of their favorite players for others, or it means nothing to most and you realize how truly early we are in Top Shot as collectors. The reasons for the current negativity are 3 fold:
- After the end of Series 2 and the height of Run it Back 05–06, both our accounts and Top Shot itself seemed as if it would be on a continued upward ascent; the opposite has happened and for some the air continues to leave the balloon.
- WNBA momes are and will continue to be a great product. However, collectors may feel that TS is going to great lengths to keep the values of these Moments intact rather than focus on NBA Moments.
- We were thrilled to get a Season 3 content roadmap, but the technology roadmap of how TS continues to move forward would be useful to have.
Now, what to do as a collector?
1) Embrace the dip!!!
Whatever section of the Top Shot pool you wade in there are Moments out there right now for you. Let’s just use Lebron as an example: his two common Moments that have been hovering around $40–$50 the last few months are down to $30. There are Moments that are in available price ranges from all of the NBA’s top players: Luka, Curry, Giannis, Lillard, Durant, Jokic, and more. Even look at the newest additions; you can purchase 3 of the 6 newest 4 Badge Rookies for $60.00 or below.
If you have a larger account, there are definitely Moments at their lowest available prices in a while. An OKC SGA TSD was sold for $400 last night after having an average market value of $550. This is only one example, but if you look at most Moments you will see they are down from their median value significantly.
Let’s look at the Run It Back Moments while we’re at it. The Moments and set as a whole have seen a steep decline in value. Dwyane Wade who was the face of the drop had his TSD drop nearly 50% from its height almost a month ago. There are RIBs going for as low as $90.00. If you own any of these and like the set, it would be a great time to add another at their current values.
2) What’s on tap?
It’s important to take a peek at what Top Shot has laid out in its Season 3 roadmap. There will be continued S3 base drops as the season progresses and there are more plays available to choose from. There will be other common sets besides the base sets that are on the horizon (New Faces/New Places, Teamwork/Celebration, HandS 2).
However, for those who desire Rare or Legendary sets, you will have to wait a little longer. It appears that the first rare set could be MGLE which may be months away and the first legendary set will be a historical Deck the Hoops, perhaps around the holidays.
What this means for us all as a collector is that it could be some time before we see an immediate rise in value based on collectors adding moments to increase their collector score to get into one of the higher queues.
What can you do in the meantime?
Look at your collection and see if there are changes that you want to make to it? Do you want to complete a set (Hustle and Show)?
Do you want to collect lower price rares or legendaries from your favorite team?
One thing you can do is that if you enjoy collecting to earn rewards, take a peek at the Run it Back player reveal to see what rewards are coming. Some moments are trickier to pinpoint than others, but you could try to collect some moments that may come in handy.
Will there be a 75th-anniversary team challenge? Only Top Shot knows, but it would be a good gamble to try to acquire Moments within your account price range of members of this team.
3) What does your collection/ account valuation look like 6 months from now?
It’s very easy to look at any of the available tools to see how much your account is in the red right now, but, what could those Moment values look like in the future, and more importantly how can you make the most of your account portfolio.
If you intend on getting into some of the priority queues later in the season, now might be a great time to add some value to your collector score.
Also, because Top Shot is a market, there will be ups and downs.
If you believe in Top Shot this will not be the last dip and the pre-RIB height will not be the last crest: curate your Moment collection to be what you’d like and what you also feel comfortable investing.
One tip that I’ve found helpful to wade through the ebbs and flows of the market is to try to always leave some of your Dapper balance available.
Depending on when you buy and sell, you could use the flow of the TS market to your advantage to add more Moments that you’d like to your collection.
Thanks for reading, see you on Twitter (@topshotyoda) or in the marketplace (TS: KnickedUp)
