Can Baker Mayfield Be The Next NFL Draft Gem?
This coming April, the NFL will host their 83rd annual draft where 32 teams will salivate over the newly eligible talent preparing to start their pro careers.. With team needs, positional value, and job security on the line, every staff member will be holding their breath as they vie to make the right pick. Countless hours of preparation go into this process, with each team hoping their decisions will steer them on the right path to success.
But as we’ve learned over the years, this is no easy task.
Many executives have filtered through the ranks of the NFL, with only a small population ever finding success. From former Detroit Lion’s general manager Matt Millen, to Vinny Cerrato of the Washington Redskins, to the recently-fired Ryan Grigson of the Indianapolis Colts, no job is safe if you are unable to draft auspiciously.
Six years ago, 31 teams passed on an undersized quarterback from the University of Wisconsin. During the 2011 college football season, this quarterback set the single-season FBS record for passing efficiency (recently broken by OU’s Baker Mayfield) and went on to lead the Badgers to a Big-10 title and an appearance in the 2012 Rose Bowl. Doubts regarding his size and ability to throw from the pocket hurt his draft stock, seeing him fall to the third round of the draft and right into the lap of the Seattle Seahawks.
If you haven’t figured it out by now, we’re talking about three-time Pro Bowler and Super Bowl XLVIII champion, Russell Wilson. Now in the sixth year of his NFL Career, Wilson has completed 64.6 percent of his passes, passed and rushed for a combined 140 touchdowns, and posted a QBR of 99.2. At just age 28, he’s lead the Seahawks to two Super Bowls, 64 total wins, and 24,211 yards of total offense.
Wilson has cemented his status as an elite, top-five quarterback, twisting the knife even further for the 31 teams who passed on him in the 2012 Draft. Teams will be keen to avoid making a similar mistake when the 2018 Draft rolls around, but it seems like scouts are all ready to pass on another undersized gunslinger by the name of Baker Mayfield.
The 2018 class is poised to be one of the deepest at quarterback ever, with three QBs potentially landing in the top-five. Sam Darnold of USC, Josh Rosen of UCLA, and Josh Allen of Wyoming will all almost certainly be drafted in the first round, leaving Mayfield to slip into the hands of whoever is savvy enough to recognize his talent and playmaking ability.
Baker Mayfield is fresh off what may be the best game of his collegiate career, and NFL scouts and personnel would be wise to take note. In their 31–16 rout over the second-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes, Mayfield went 27–35 for 386 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Mayfield was specifically special while under pressure, during which shows he went 7–10 for 137 yards and a touchdown (per ESPN Stats & Info). Mayfield tore apart an Ohio State defense that has three players expected to be drafted in the first round: cornerback Denzel Ward, linebacker Jerome Baker, edge-rusher Sam Hubbard. Ohio State is one of the most NFL-ready defenses and still was no match for Baker and the Sooners.
Baker’s size, mobility, arm strength, and ability to extend the play are reminiscent of Wilson’s time in Wisconsin. He’s thrown for 10,695 yards and 94 touchdowns in his 36 games and has added 759 yards and 16 scores on the ground. Furthermore, his passion for the game, IQ on the field, and his leadership in the locker room make a desired presence amongst an NFL roster.
While Baker’s talents compare to Wilson, the same can be said for his weaknesses. His aggressiveness with the ball can result in poor decisions and an alarming amount of turnovers, not to mention that his tendency to hold on to the football to extend plays opens him up for unnecessary hits at the NFL level.
While his playmaking ability and success at the collegiate level are undeniable, his size and decision making will potentially slide him into Day two at the NFL Draft. However, if a team with a top-ten defense and aging quarterback (I’m looking at you, Giants, Cardinals, Chargers) takes a flier on him in the 3rd round, you may just find yourself with the next Russell Wilson.
