Careful Everyone, Lamar Jackson is Not Your Next Franchise Quarterback
For those of you who are hoping to fill your team’s void at the quarterback position in the 2018 NFL Draft with the electrifying play from dual-threat quarterback Lamar Jackson from Louisville, I have some very bad news for you: he’s not the guy.
Jackson burst onto the scene in 2015 as a freshman when he threw for over 1,800 yards and added 960 on the ground. With 23 total touchdowns to just eight interceptions, Jackson had caught the eyes of the college football world as a force to be reckoned with. From that point on, things only continued to improve.
Lamar Jackson became a staple in the world of football in 2016, where his 3,500 passing yards, 1,500 rushing yards and 51 total touchdowns earned him the honors of being the 2016 AP Player of the Year, a 2016 Consensus All-American, and being named the recipient of the 2016 Heisman Memorial Trophy, joining the fraternity of college football elitists. Lamar Jackson was not just a college football player, he was college football.
But, unfortunately for Jackson’s long-term potential, that is all he ever will be.
While Jackson is undoubtedly one of this best athletes in college football, that’s because the college football game is tailored to his benefit and in three major fields specifically — size, defensive talent, and offensive schemes.
Starting with size, Jackson’s small frame is serviceable in college football where your body is taking fewer hits and from smaller athletes. Jackson is listed at weighing 211 pounds and in the NFL would only weigh more than Drew Brees (209) and Russell Wilson (206). While those are two very successful pro quarterbacks, both have exceptional deep ball accuracy, something Jackson has struggled to do in his collegiate career. Additionally, colleges often tend to inaccurately claim the size of their players and for that we will have to wait until the combine to see how much Jackson actually weighs. Robert Griffin III and Johnny Manziel are just two of the most recent undersized quarterbacks who have failed to have professional success due to their frame and inability to remain healthy. Smaller frames in the NFL have failed to stand the test of time, and that being said, Jackson’s career could be stunted or eliminated because of his size.
Another reason Lamar Jackson has continued to dazzle everyone in the world of college football is due to the lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball — where players are slower, smaller and less intelligent than those in the NFL. One of Jackson’s most viable threats is his ability to run and currently has 3,560 rushing yards in his collegiate career while averaging 6.1 yards per carry. When recruiting top pass rushing talent in college football, the best of the best can hopefully record a 4.8 run in the 40-yard dash. While the top talent at the position are capable of doing so, in college you may face one of those players a year, potentially once in your entire career. Here are some of the NFL’s top pass rushers and their 40-yard dash times: Von Miller (4.49 sec.), Khalil Mack (4.65 sec.), Jadeveon Clowney (4.53 sec.) and Cameron Wake (4.65 sec.). The speed of NFL’s elite pass rushers makes it nearly impossible for quarterbacks to consistently run the ball and are contained at a higher rate than in college, therefore making it much harder for Jackson to maintain success in his professional career.
The final knock on Jackson’s game as it translates to the NFL comes at the hands of defensive coordinators and their ability to adapt to offensive concepts. NFL defenses are highly complex and sophisticated. For instance, take a look at the wildcat offense and the sustainability of Brad Smith running Jet Sweeps in New York for a season (shoutout to Brad Smith). The league is so quick to catch up to new trends that it makes it impossible for unique quarterbacks to maintain success and takes some of the all-time greats to be excluded for that list. Vince Young, Colin Kaepernick, RGIII and Tim Tebow are just a few of the dual-threat quarterbacks that thrived in college only to have their professional careers crumble because of the adaptability of NFL defenses.
While all of these are valid reasons to stay away from Lamar Jackson as your future quarterback, there still is hope for him as he moves into the NFL. Marcus Mariota, Cam Newton, and Russell Wilson have done a great job at transitioning to the NFL level and making the necessary steps to develop their skill-set. But until Jackson bulks up and adds those other aspects to his game, it will be extremely hard for his success to continue at the professional level, and for that, hold off on the excitement and glee when your team picks him this coming May.
