Don’t Rush Luck, 2017 is a Wash
In the midst of a disaster season in Indianapolis, the Colts’ are stuck in franchise quarterback limbo after Andrew Luck received a cortisone shot in his surgically right shoulder. Looking back from where we stand out, it is safe to say that this is the exact situation Colts’ new general manager Chris Ballard anticipated from the start.
When Ballard arrived in Indianapolis — replacing the failure of a general manager that was Ryan Grigson — he took a long, hard look at the roster and realized he had to clean house. Releasing aging veterans and signing younger talent, Ballard replaced nine starters on the defensive side of the ball and four starters on the offense. Teams with this much overhaul alone are doomed for failure in their first season and knowing the recovery process Andrew Luck was facing, it all but assured Ballard that this season would be a wash.
And it was exactly what he wanted.
Ballard made all the right moves in the 2017 draft; bringing in defensive talent, adding young rotation players on the offensive line, and drafting young skill players like Marlon Mack. Not game changing pieces, but developmental talent that would grow in this down year for the Colts.
While they were moving in the right direction following the draft, Ballard had absolutely no intention on playing Luck this year. With perhaps the worst offensive line in the league and Luck already showing his body can’t handle the 156 sacks he has taken in just 70 games, the best course of action for him was to remain on the sideline. However, to appease the fan base and ownership, he traded away the biggest Ryan Grigson mistake — wide receiver Phillip Dorsett — and brought in Jacoby Brissett from the New England Patriots . Eight weeks in, we can safely say Brissett is a deserving starter in the league, but one that would not threaten the position of Luck when he returns.
With the AFC South title wide open in the beginning of the season, Luck returned to practice before their week five matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. With the new talent on the roster developing nicely and the potential of Luck’s return, all was well with the Indianapolis fan base. Ballard was keeping the fans happy while also keeping Luck out of harm’s way.
However, following a cortisone shot in Luck’s throwing shoulder on October 18th and the Colts’ offensive line allowing ten sacks on Brissett against division rival Jacksonville Jaguars, it became clearer that Luck’s 2017 return would be highly unlikely. Despite reassurances from Ballard, head coach Chuck Pagano, and Luck himself, bringing Luck back would be detrimental to his long-term health and recovery. With the Colts sitting at the bottom of the division, it is all but certain that will fail to qualify for the playoffs in 2017.
But why continue reassure Luck would return?
For a first-year general manager, you need to win your fan base over by showing you’re doing your best to win football games. That’s why Ballard flipped the roster, why he replaced Scott Tolzien for Brissett, and why he tells media that Luck will play this season. For Pagano, however, the 57-year-old coach is praying that Luck comes back this season. While Pagano has the makings of an NFL head coach, he’s the head coach that Grigson hired, not Ballard. Chris Ballard will want his head coach calling plays in 2018 and, unless Luck returns and brings them to the playoffs, it’s more than certain that Pagano will be relieved of his duties this offseason.
With Luck on the sideline and Brissett taking all the hits for him, Chris Ballard is getting exactly what he wants. The lack of success from his team gives him the opportunity to move on from Pagano and hire his desired head coach. The losses piling up put the Colts in prime position at the top of a 2018 Draft that is ripe with talent on the offensive and defensive lines — all while keeping their franchise in tact while Luck’s shoulder heals on the sideline.
On top of everything, putting Brissett into action after riding the bench in New England is slowly developing his trade value for other teams in the NFL. While his success on the field shines and fades on a week-to-week basis, his deep-ball accuracy, ability to flush the pocket and throw on the run, and lead an NFL system make him a viable trade target for teams searching for a young quarterback with upside. Even if the Colts choose to not trade Brissett, being under contract until the end of the 2019 season with a maximum salary of $915,000, he’ll be an affordable and qualified backup for Luck when he returns.
While it appears as though the Colts franchise is in dismay, Ballard has all the pieces set for success beyond the 2017 season. With a top pick in 2018, the trade potential of Jacoby Brissett, a new head coach, an abundance of young talent, and the healthy return of Andrew Luck, the Indianapolis Colts are right where Ballard has wanted them to be since the day he took the job.
