Is A Regression Coming for Matt Ryan in 2017?
After leading the Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl in 2016 and putting up an amazing stat line of 4944 throwing yards, 38 touchdowns and only seven picks, many would think he’s destined to do the same in 2017. After all he still has his star receiver Julio Jones, a standout deep-threat in Taylor Gabriel, two terrific running/receiving backs Devontae Freeman and Tevin Coleman, and a developing young tight end in Austin Hooper. A lot of things are looking up for Matty Ice, but I believe he is due for a regression. Let’s dive into the past to see just why he and the Atlanta Falcons could struggle this season.
Matt Ryan has been a starter in the NFL for nine seasons and always been considered a solid NFL quarterback capable of leading his team, but never a bona fide superstar until last season. He set career highs in touchdowns, yards, completion percentage, yards per attempt, interceptions, and quarterback rating at an astounding 117.1. It was truly a magical season for Ryan and that’s what makes it so hard to believe he will repeat that level of success this season. He obliterated so many career highs that its hard not see him regressing back to the normal level of production. At 31 years old Ryan is certainly not ancient for the position but at his age quarterbacks don’t suddenly become undeniably elite and set the league on fire for years to come.
Many might point to the new offensive system put in place by Kyle Shanahan as the reason Ryan was able to make his jump to stardom, but Shanahan is gone now, leaving the Falcons to become the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers. Shanahan has also shone a talent for creating offensive schemes that are tailored to quarterbacks strengths but leave them vulnerable if defenses catch on, à la Matt Schaub and RG3.
In 2012 Matt Ryan led the Falcons to a 13–3 record and the NFC championship game. That season he threw for a then career high in touchdowns (32), completion percentage (68.6), yards (4,719), and quarterback rating at (99.1), sound familiar? Ryan was just 27 at the time and many thought he and a talented Atlanta Falcons team would go on to be an elite force in the NFL for seasons to come. The next season the Falcons went 4–12 and Ryan threw a career worst 17 interceptions, and was in line with his career norms in all other categories.
That 2013 season truly makes me wonder what Ryan will look like this season. It is easy to think that Julio Jones and company will be able to ensure that Ryan will not regress but in 2013 the Falcons still had Pro-Bowl receiver Roddy White and Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez on the roster, a duo he had tremendous success with the season before.
The NFC South is a wild division in which only one team has ever won it in back to back seasons, the Carolina Panthers from 2013 to 2015. If this trend proves true once again in 2017, the NFC South will once again have a new champion and Matt Ryan will certainly not be in MVP contention.
