SignalPlus Vol Commentary (02 Jul 2024)
Over the past month, Bitcoin investors have indeed faced substantial losses. The price of Bitcoin began a consistent decline from a high near 72,000 at the beginning of last month, at one point falling below the 60,000 threshold. As July begins, ETF funds have gradually resumed positive inflows, and the price of BTC has consequently moved upward, escaping last month’s oscillation range of 60,000 to 62,000. It has twice challenged the 63,200 USD mark, which will be critical in determining whether BTC can continue to recover lost ground, with investors holding high hopes. However, if the challenge fails, BTC is likely to repeat the June debacle and fall below 61,000 again.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, followed by the release of important U.S. macroeconomic data, such as Wednesday’s ADP report, the services PMI, and Friday’s non-farm payrolls and hourly wages. All of these will be closely monitored by the market.
In the options market, implied volatility (IV) continues to decline, with BTC repeatedly breaking recent historical lows. ETH’s IV has experienced significant fluctuations several times due to ETF news, but the overall trend remains downward. Currently, ETH’s IV is around 50+%, which is generally 15% higher than BTC’s IV for the same period.
Regarding the Ethereum ETF, the U.S. SEC has returned all S-1 forms to the issuers, with market expectations of approval within two weeks. Additionally, the published rates indicate that, to capture market share, the fees for Ethereum ETFs will be lower than those for Bitcoin ETFs, all below 30 basis points.
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