Quick thoughts on Canada’s recent “shocking” COP 21 goal

The National Observer, a new Canadian news outlet that is primarily focused on climate and environment issues, just reported via the Green Party’s Claire Martin that our new environment minister Catherine McKenna has endorsed a 1.5 º Celsius global average warming limit in a closed-door negotiating session. Mckenna also reportedly endorsed a legally binding deal and echoed support for human rights and indigenous rights provisions in the text.

There will be lots of analysis on the nature of this commitment in time, but I want to focus a little on the nature of these goals as a measure of ambition:

First, the Canadian government should absolutely support a 1.5º C target, that’s what science tells us is the absolute limit before we have a chance of avoiding tipping points and spinning out of control (even 1.5ºC will be devastating for many in the global south).

But let’s be clear, in order for Canada to do it’s fair share to meet a 1.5º target it would need to be committing in the range of 61–71% GHG emissions reductions on 1990 levels by 2030. It would also need to commit $35.25 Billion in climate finance to reduce emissions abroad in order to make up for our climate debt accrued over the last 100 years. Don’t take my word for it, these targets are from pretty detailed analysis done by climate scientists, NGOs, social movements, and research institutes.

Now let’s compare that to what we’ve brought to the table in Paris: our Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), or for those of you who prefer to speak English: emissions pledge, is a 30% reduction on 2005 levels by 2030. This is actually a cute trick on behalf of the Harper government, because the normal baseline for emissions reductions is actually 1990, not 2005. Based on 1990s levels, our pledge is actually more like a 2% reduction by 2030. Sure, these were Harper’s numbers, but Trudeau has not changed them yet, despite using them as a “floor” for negotiation. Then there’s Trudeau’s $2.65 Billion climate finance pledge, less than 15% of what we owe. No wonder Canadian youth are calling our performance a COP out (har har).

My reading of this is that this commitment is political cover for not actually increasing emissions reductions pledges from the Harper government numbers. A 1.5º target vs. a 2º target is only useful if you meet it. Canada is on track to blow past it’s weak 2% target that we made when we were committed to 2ºC, current national and provincial efforts are not changing that fact. A more ambitious target is not helpful if we don’t match our actions to it.

It’s also great that Canada is supporting a nod to human rights and indigenous rights in the Paris Agreement. But actions matter more than words on this front, too. If Trudeau and McKenna are serious we could start by implementing the recommendations of the Truth and Reconciliation Report, especially implementing the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples and affirming their rights to provide or deny free, prior, and informed consent for any activities on their lands. A nice follow-up would be to pull out of Syria and stop supporting Turkey’s bombing campaign against the Kurdish rebels, also holding Canadian mining companies accountable for their human rights abuses worldwide and repealing bill C-51 would make a lot of sense. In fact, actually providing adequate finance for climate change adaptation and reducing emissions in line with science and equity would do a whole lot to advance human rights and indigenous rights.

Announcements don’t stop climate change. Leaving fossil fuels in the ground, building community owned renewable energy systems on a massive scale, fixing our food system, and building the care economy stops climate change. I’ll applaud leaders when I see concrete steps towards these things, until then, there’s still work to do.