Dear Immersive Reality Investors, II
This is part II, continued from: “Dear Immersive Reality Investors, I”
2.) Stop being myopic about hardware.
The VR hardware most invested in was likely obsolete before completing this sentence, let alone the monies clearing the bank. Getting VR/AR hardware (further) miniaturized, so that it can be lightweight and mobile, is only a means to an end, and we are essentially there. Are they cheap with all the bells and whistles one would like this very moment? No, but the economies of scale, Moore’s law, and Accelerating Returns will prevail (read: likely very little money to be made in the hardware sector). Hardware/software will perpetually be in flux, let it go, we have other work to do now if the VR/AR mediums are to flourish (read: invest in worthwhile content creators).
Over the past year, as I consulted on VR/AR: the only constant with VCs, seed angels, hedge fund managers, and many in the c-suite, et al, was the obsession with hardware. The worship of hardware was practically fetishistic. In case you missed Part I of this article series, the gist was to “stop obsessing with one’s “toys,” because:
The hardware had to be: bigger, better, faster, more! I would often ask: for what, why, and whom? Truthfully, no one ever gave me an answer that made much sense. Out-speccing competitors is not any guarantor of success. As I mentioned already, we’re well on the curve to what we need, so let’s focus now on what it is consumers want, which is worthwhile content.
Even the most incredible VR hardware, with outrageous specs, at a truly mainstream price (>$150), isn’t going to be worth the investment if all there is to watch or interact with are tons of poorly made content (most of it presently user-generated). Honestly, did anyone learn much from the game console wars (see article #1 of this series)? There are already too many slinging flimsy credentials in the space, aided only by marketing and specs jargon, who got backed up by a lot of capital they didn’t deserve nor earn.
BeLIEving and/or wanting something so badly, and then throwing a bunch of money at it, doesn’t will it into existence. In much the same way as a handful of people have made a type of flying car over the past few decades, it doesn’t mean we now have mainstream, autonomous flying vehicles for everyone’s personal use. Might we have those someday? It seems plausible. Is anyone going to fund all of that tech from scratch so they can have mainstream, production-ready models in less than five years’ time? No, because it’s not practical, but that didn’t stop some from doing what they claim to never do: spend a lot of money on a leap of faith for something magical to appear.
If you have ever seen an older film envision the future and its technologies, with all of its purported promise, laughably off-the-mark designs, and their supposed (mis)use: remember that, because that is how this all looks, right now.
