USA Covid-19 death rate predictions
On May 4 for example I predict that the death total in the USA will be 119,300
I would bet that the Federal stay at home guidelines are slowing down the rate of doubling, but the death total numbers are still doubling, and that is troubling.
Before I get to the death count numbers and my predictions I want to point out that as of 4/17 we have 710,272 total cases, 100,685 closed cases, 609,587 active cases, a closed case death rate of 37 percent, which suggests that when those 609,587 active cases close 37 percent will be dead. That’s 225,547 people dead from just the case total on April 17th. So it should not come as a surprise to anyone if we hit 100,000 deaths by May 4th.
I had the idea to do this in part because I saw that on April 17th, in the USA 2,535 had died bringing the total dead to 37,154. 7 days prior (April 10th) the total was 18,747. That meant that in 7 days the death total increased by 18,407. I realized that was almost a doubling in 7 days in the number of dead in the USA. So what if I divided the daily total for each day by 2 so that I could map out the rate of doubling over time. The rate of doubling, in the short term, seems to be slowing down over time and perhaps that is because of everyone’s efforts to shelter in place. However the fact that it is still doubling is troubling, the USA has a lot more people than Italy or Spain, it’s like having a lot more fuel for the virus (the fire) to burn, so I am having trouble believing that we are going to reach the peak in April.
The death total numbers from March 26th through April 17th came from the Worldometers.info website.
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll…
d11.5 = deaths I predict will be double a number from 11.5 days to ago
d10 = deaths I predict will be double a number from 10 days to ago
May 6 d11.5 127,154
May 5 d11 124,536
May 4 d11 119,300
May 3 d11 94,560
May 2 d10.5 91,490
May 1 d10 88,420
April 30 d10 84,420
April 29 d10 82,308
April 28 doubles from 9.5 days ago 78,308
April 27 doubles from 9 days ago 74,308
April 26 doubles from 9 days ago 69,238
April 25 doubles from 9 days ago 64,886
April 24 doubles from 8.5 days ago 62,268
April 23 doubles from 8 days ago 59,650
April 22 doubles from 8 days ago 47,280
April 20 doubles from 8 days ago 44,210
April 19 doubles from 7.5 days ago 42,682
April 18 doubles from 7 days ago 41,154
Actual numbers: (note the doubling rate is a rough estimate what I think I’m noticing is that it seems like the number of days that it takes to trace a doubling is increasing, and I’m guessing that’s about 4 days to each increase in the length of days it days for the death rate to double.)
April 17 (37,154) / 2 = 18,577 (It took about) 7 days to double
April 16 (34,619) / 2 = 17309 7 days to double
April 15 (32.443) / 2 = 16221 6 days to double
April 14 (29,825) / 2 = 14912 6 days to double
April 13 (23,640) / 2 = 11820 6.5 days to double
April 12 (22,105) / 2 = 11052 5.5 days to double
April 11 (20,577) / 2 = 10288 5 days to double
April 10 (18,747) / 2 = 9373 5 days to double
April 09 (16,712) / 2 = 8356 5 days to double
April 08 (14,811) / 2 = 7405 5.5 days to double
April 07 (12,868) / 2 = 6434 4.5 days to double
April 06 (10,895) / 2 = 5447 4.5 days to double
April 05 (9,636) / 2 = 4818 4.5 days to double
April 04 (8,469) / 2 = 4234 3.5 days to double
April 03 (7,127) / 2 = 3563 3.5 days to double
April 02 (6,088) / 2 = 3044 3 days to double
April 01 (5,114) / 2 = 2557 3 days to double
March 31 (4,064) / 2 = 2032 3.5 days to double
March 30th (3,143) / 2 = 1571 3 days to double
March 29th (2,592) / 2 = 1296 3 days to double
March 28th (2,222) / 2 = 1111 2.5 days to double
March 27th (1,697) / 2 = 848 2.5 days to double
March 26th (1,296) / 2 = 648 2 days to double
End of main story.
I wrote these predictions to above to compared against the IHME predictions.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore hospital bed use, need for intensive care beds, and ventilator use due to COVID-19 based on projected deaths
The reason I think IHME predictions have been wrong since the beginning is that their death totals have never exceeded the flu anyone who can do math, read data, and think for themselves can see that this virus is deadlier, more contagious, and more impactful on society than the flu.
So my article is really meant to be compared with the IHME article for the next 2–3 weeks. I wrote my article to give better predictions that their article. Here is another article that I wrote that helps explain why (in the second half of the page, so after the page loads scroll to the second half to begin) the virus is a lot deadlier than the flu, why its a lot more contagious and why its going to kill a lot more people.
Note: Having everywhere wear PPE is how we get the economy going again.