2016 Simply Bases Projected MLB Standings

The 2016 Simply Bases Projected Standings are being presented to you. But, before you get to the standings themselves, you can go through the Q&A, based off discussions I had with myself (for your sake).

The “Playoff Picture” portion is simply taking the standings a step further. The tiebreaker for teams with identical projected records is run differential.

The current projections were last run on March 13, 2016. The last update accounts for the signing of Pedro Alvarez and Carter Capps’ injury.

Enjoy!

Q: Projected Standings, what is this nonsense?

A: We generated 2016 MLB Projected Standings based on the Steamer Projections for each individual player on each team. The player projections can be found at Fangraphs.

Q: What’s your qualification to project the standings?

A: Not much, I guess.

Q: How did you determine how many runs a team would score?

A: We published a piece earlier in the off-season discussing the relationship between a team’s wOBA and Runs Scored. The Projected Runs Scored were calculated using the calculation that explains the correlation between Team wOBA and Team Runs Scored between 2005–2015. The Team wOBA for 2016 was calculated based upon the Steamer Projections, mentioned above.

Q: What about the Projected Runs Against for each team?

A: This is also based off a piece published earlier in the off-season. That piece suggested that about 36% of the variance between a team’s ERA and FIP was correlated to a team’s “Def”, a defensive metric used by Fangraphs. So, using the Steamer Projections, we projected (a) a team’s FIP and (b) a team’s Def, to determine RA.

Q: How do you project a record from the Projected Runs Scored and Projected Runs Against?

A: We applied the basic Pythagorean W-L% calculation:

W/L % = Runs Scored x Runs Scored / Runs Scored x Runs Scored + Runs Against x Runs Against

Q: Did you do anything else?

A: Well, the total Projected Runs Scored and total Projected Runs Against did not equal each other. And that’s a problem. Therefore, we made them equivalent by allocating the difference between total Projected Runs Scored and total Projected Runs Against to each team based on the percentage of total Projected Runs Against each team was projected to allow.

For example, if the total Projected Runs Against was 1,000 (it’s much more than that) and the Texas Rangers were projected to surrender 100 runs, the Rangers would account for 10% of the total Projected Runs Against.

If the total Projected Runs Scored was 2,000 (again, which it is not), the 1,000 run difference between the total Projected Runs Scored and total Projected Runs Against would need to be allocated. In this hypothetical, we would allocate an additional 100 Projected Runs Against to the Rangers, or 10% of the difference between total Projected Runs Scored and total Projected Runs Against. 10% is allocated to the Rangers because they accounted for 10% of the initial total Projected Runs Against.

Q: This all sounds suspect. Is it?

A: Yes and no. It’s certainly unproven. This is the first time these projections are being used.

Q: Do your projections hate the Royals?

A: Of course.

NL East

  1. Washington Nationals (94–68, 746 RS, 635 RA)
  2. New York Mets (87–75, 690 RS, 637 RA)
  3. Miami Marlins (83–79, 695 RS, 679 RA)
  4. Atlanta Braves (70–92, 630 RS, 727 RA)
  5. Philadelphia Phillies (65–97, 610 RS, 749 RA)

NL Central

  1. Chicago Cubs (101–61, 796 RS, 622 RA)
  2. St. Louis Cardinals (88–74, 720 RS, 657 RA)
  3. Pittsburgh Pirates (88–74, 715 RS, 656 RA)
  4. Milwaukee Brewers (74–88 , 680 RS, 746 RA)
  5. Cincinnatti Reds (73–89 , 660 RS, 728 RA)

NL West

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers (95–67 , 736 RS, 616 RA)
  2. San Francisco Giants (88–74 , 690 RS, 634 RA)
  3. Colorado Rockies (81–81, 761 RS, 756 RA)
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks (81–81, 700 RS, 702 RA)
  5. San Diego Padres (74–88, 610 RS, 667 RA)

AL East

  1. Boston Red Sox (89–73, 771 RS, 698 RA)
  2. New York Yankees (84–78, 705 RS, 684 RA)
  3. Toronto Blue Jays (82–80, 761 RS, 748 RA)
  4. Tampa Bay Rays (77–85, 650 RS, 686 RA)
  5. Baltimore Orioles (77–85, 725 RS, 759 RA)

AL Central

  1. Cleveland Indians (83–79, 670 RS, 656 RA)
  2. Detroit Tigers (79–83, 746 RS, 760 RA)
  3. Chicago White Sox (77–85, 695 RS, 729 RA)
  4. Kansas City Royals (74–88, 670 RS, 730 RA)
  5. Minnesota Twins (73–89, 690 RS, 766 RA)

AL West

  1. Houston Astros (82–80, 715 RS, 710 RA)
  2. Texas Rangers (80–82, 725 RS, 732 RA)
  3. Seattle Mariners (79–83, 670 RS, 690 RA)
  4. Anaheim Angels (78–84, 685 RS, 710 RA)
  5. Oakland Athletics (75–87, 665 RS, 716 RA)

Playoff Picture

Wild Card

  • St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates
  • New York Yankees v. Toronto Blue Jays

Division Series

  • Chicago Cubs v. St. Louis Cardinals
  • Los Angeles Dodgers v. Washington Nationals
  • Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees
  • Cleveland Indians v. Houston Astros

Championship Series

  • Chicago Cubs v. Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Boston Red Sox v. Cleveland Indians

World Series:

  • Chicago Cubs v. Boston Red Sox