Brexit Agreement Gets Approved: What’s Next?
A long-awaited moment in the Brexit saga came this week.
More than two years after a referendum vote decided the United Kingdom would leave the European Union, a draft Brexit agreement is moving forward with approvals.
But the deal still faces numerous political hurdles before being finalized.
The first came Nov. 14, when UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s cabinet spent five hours in closed door meetings discussing the text. Following much debate, the final outcome from her cabinet was an acceptance of the draft agreement.
“These documents were the result of thousands of hours of hard negotiation by UK officials and many, many meetings which I and other ministers held with our EU counterparts,” May said following the lengthy cabinet session.
“I firmly believe that the draft withdrawal agreement was the best that could be negotiated and it was for the cabinet to decide whether to move on in the talks. This is a decisive step which enables us to move on and finalise the deal in the days ahead. These decisions were not taken lightly but I believe it is a decision that is firmly in the national interest.”
What’s in the Brexit Deal
A few details have started to emerge on what’s included in the estimated 500-page document that outlines how the UK’s departure from the EU will occur.
The withdrawal agreement is said to cover how much money the UK owes the EU (estimated at £39 billion, or approximately USD$50.7 billion), the Northern Ireland border, and what happens to UK citizens living in the EU, as well as EU citizens living in the UK.
One of the most contentious issues throughout the Brexit negotiation process has been about the border separating the Republic of Ireland (a member of the EU), from Northern Ireland (which is part of the UK).
There have been concerns that a “hard” border with formal customs and checks would fracture the peaceful relationship between the two and jeopardize the Good Friday Agreement.
However, the EU and UK haven’t been able to agree on how to ensure this is guaranteed going forward and so a “backstop” arrangement has been added to the draft. This arrangement serves as an insurance policy to safeguard an open border and ensure physical checks aren’t reinstated if a solution isn’t agreed upon by the end of the 21-month transition period following the UK’s official departure on March 29, 2019.
What the Brexit Deal Means for UK Businesses and the Economy
Business chiefs and groups in the UK applauded news of the draft deal, saying it’s a move in the right direction for providing businesses with more certainty.
“The latest Brexit developments are a welcome step towards a deal as retailers need certainty as we approach the UK’s departure date. We must avoid the cliff edge of no deal in March 2019 — this could lead to shoppers facing higher prices and reduced availability of products,” the British Retail Consortium wrote in a tweet.
Juergen Maier, the UK CEO of Siemens, also noted the urgent need for clarification, telling Reuters: “My gut feeling is we need to get behind it and we need to make this deal work. What we need is certainty.”
On the matter of trade, it’s still a bit of a waiting game to find out what’s in store. A separate and shorter statement on future relations will be published at the same time as the withdrawal deal. However, it’s expected that the details on any trade agreements will be fine-tuned during the transition period.
There are reports that a Brexit agreement will also significantly boost the UK economy. According to CNN, a Brexit deal could lift economic growth in the UK from 1.3% this year to 2% in 2019.
Politicians React to the Draft Agreement
Unsurprisingly, political reaction to the Brexit deal has been swift.
Many critics of the deal have claimed that it’s too soft, allows the EU too many compromises, and threatens the unity of the UK.
Boris Johnson, who quit his position as foreign secretary in July over May’s Brexit proposals, called the deal “vassal state stuff.”
While it’s not completely clear if the Labour Party will support the deal, Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition, noted his party’s dissatisfaction with the negotiation process and highlighted skepticism of what the Brexit deal would entail for the UK.
“We will look at the details of what has been agreed when they are available. But from what we know of the shambolic handling of these negotiations, this is unlikely to be a good deal for the country,” said Corbyn according to Reuters.
Meanwhile, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar hinted at his support of the deal, saying that the draft text wouldn’t “negatively impact” the integrity of the UK and reinforced the notion that the agreement will protect the Good Friday Agreement.
What Happens Next
There’s still a long way to go before any deal on Brexit is ratified.
May still has to get the deal through Parliament, where she doesn’t hold a majority. What’s more, there are reports that one cabinet minister, Penny Mordaunt, has asked that ministers be allowed a free vote in Parliament, which suggests Mordaunt (and perhaps others in May’s party) are planning to vote against the deal.
Now that the cabinet has agreed to the text, the EU expects to hold a special Brexit summit on Nov. 25. May would then take the deal to Parliament, which would likely occur in mid-December. EU member states must also ratify the agreement.
No matter the outcome of this Brexit deal, it’s not likely to be a smooth ride to the finish line.
