The Circus is over. But here’s 3 ways a Donald Trump presidency will impact your business.
Donald Trump, president-elect of the United States, has been criticized, ostracized, and polarized. Certainly, he himself used those same brands of rhetoric to sit in the position he is today, but that is beside the point in this week’s Kodiak Community.
The 2016 Presidential Election, at times, felt more like a reality show than a race for one of the most highly esteemed political positions in the entire world. In that regard, Donald Trump is overwhelmingly the more credible and experienced candidate as he has, in fact, been a reality television star before.
Where are your credentials, Hilary?
The festivities, which have been labeled the 2016 Presidential Election, are done; over; kaput. Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 45th POTUS, and to quote President Barack Obama (pre-results), “no matter what happens, the sun will rise in the morning”. The sun has risen, the smoke has cleared, and more than a week after the 2016 Election results, the sun continues to rise in the east and set in the west.
Yet, the world hasn’t been exactly the same; you’ve seen it, heard it, and tweeted about it. Changes have happened and will continue to happen in our lives, individually and institutionally from New York, NY to Osaka, Japan.
Though I don’t see Donald Trump having his presidency immortalized, in the same fashion as Lincoln and his memorial, Trump’s status as president-elect of the United States of America has already, and will continue to, affect the business world in magnitudes of monumental proportions. Begging the question:
How has this, or will this, affect my business?
1. “Show me the money!”
As of November 14th, the dollar has shown some of it’s strongest numbers since 2002; this all happening in the aftermath of “ ‘Trumpism’ -a sign of global confidence… consistent with trade and manufacturing objectives,” as best put by Alan Ruskin, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank.
(As of November 14th) In comparison to the dollar, the Japanese yen was down by 1.1%, euro, 0.8%, Chinese yaun 0.5%, Russian ruble, 0.8% and the British pound, 0.5%. The massive decrease in valuation of foreign currency has strengthened the positioning for overseas trade for businesses inside the US. Pinning the other tail on the other end of the donkey, European and Asian buyers and suppliers are taking big hits for any trade being done with organizations in the US (Business Insider).
No one knows what a Trump the future holds. Some of the most intelligible pollsters couldn’t predict his rise to power, and some of the world’s best social scientists are still trying to figure out, how did his rise to power happen? To summarize, the future of the dollar’s strength in comparison to where it lies now is unknown. However, after Trump’s election the value has risen exponentially.
Like I asked one of my favorite history professors a long time ago, how can we know what’s going to happen in the future he smiled and replied; “value the facts of the past”.
2. Have we learned nothing from our past?
Though the effects of “Brexit” have yet been seen to the fullest extent, and the state of it’s implementation is in constant limbo, there have already been changes within the economic state of the UK. Surely, drawing parallels between UK’s vote to leave the EU in June of 2016 (including after-effects) and the recent election of Donald Trump as the next POTUS is a bit of a stretch, but bear with me; it may be a more shocking thank you think.
David Cameron, previous prime minister of the UK and leader of the Tory party, was wildly popular amongst conservative voters and extremists long leading up to his election and the vote to ‘leave’.
Cameron made promises of reducing the gap, giving the hard-done-by a voice, cracking down on immigration while speaking of immigrants and mass migration in a uniformly negative manner, and breaking confines from large founded-inherently structured establishments (Washington Post).
Sound like anyone else you’ve heard of?
Since leaving the EU ‘Brexit’ has resulted in the UK's:
· Dramatic decrease in the British pound value
· Interest rates have been cut in half, from .5% to .25%
· Pension fund deficits have grown due to falling bond yields
· Spike in hate crime
· Migration is down
· Materials and fuel prices skyrocketed for UK manufacturers
· Trade deficit widened to £5.1bn
· Cost of raw materials and input costs met fastest moving rise since 2011 in construction
· Slight rise in UK unemployment
(Source: BBC)
Some of these changes have had large and instantaneous implications for British businesses, and likewise for countries around the world that do business with companies inside the UK.
To assume a government with a similar agenda being elected in the US will cause shockwaves akin to those that happened in the UK, post-Brexit, may be making apples into oranges.
But, then again, they are both fruit.
3. Dashing through the coal, in a one horse open sleigh!
A Trump presidency has large reaching implications for companies with an eye towards sustainable and environmentally ‘green’ business practices.
Trump has strongly disapproved of wind and solar energy, deeming renewable means “too expensive”, and is a strong advocate of digging for coal; creating a “shale energy revolution”. These ideas of energy and environmental impact come from Mr. Donald J. Trump; president-elect of the United States of America. Trump has claimed; “the concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive” (The Guardian).
I can’t make this stuff up people. Literally. That’s why the statement has quotation marks around it. Trump believes that global warming, a slow and impactful breaking down of the Earth’s ozone layer, is a not a scientifically backed destruction of our environment, but a scheme made up by China…
To companies planning to make large environmental and social changes in the hopes to better their profile, but also to battle institutional impact on the environment, Trump’s claims are concerning to say the least.
I know what you’re thinking; business environmental regulations will be disassembled, wind plants will be ripped out of the ground and smog will nestle it’s toxicity into the hearts of our cities and homes.
Before we reach a level of extremism in our anxieties let me try and put your minds and sustainable business initiatives at ease.
Best put by The Guardian;
In 2009, ahead of the Copenhagen Climate Summit, (Trump) was a co-signatory to a letter to Obama, which pointed out that clean energy, technologies would “spur economic growth, create new energy jobs and increase our energy security”. The letter concluded by saying: “If we fail to act now, it is scientifically irrefutable that there will be catastrophic and irreversible consequences for humanity and our planet.”
Now, if Trump was aware of the words contained in the document he put his signature on, we’ll never really know.
Trump’s inconsistencies in his morals and policies isn’t the most qualifiable trait accredited to a president-elect, but in this case, a flip flopping nature is a glimmer of hope for our environment and the sustainably responsible business world.
Until next week.
