How a Republican can win the 2016 Maryland Senate race

Senator Barbara Mikulski’s announcement earlier this month that she would be retiring after thirty-years in the Senate has set of a flurry of political activity in Maryland. Still twenty months away, the 2016 race to succeed her is beginning to take shape — with the early prognostications all focusing on which Democrat will win the day. Indeed, just today Maryland Reporter columnist Barry Rascovar opined that “the fate of the GOP primary winner may lie more in the hands of Democratic primary voters.” It’s the Democrats race to lose, he says. The GOP has “too many retreads” or folks who are “not ready for prime time.”

Of course, that’s what folks were saying about the GOP’s candidates for governor at this point in the 2014 cycle — myself included. But this time, like last time, I think it’s off base.

Maryland’s Democrat-heavy voter registration numbers and electoral history belie the true sentiment on the ground: party loyalty is not what it once was, and there’s a Republican in the State House to prove it. Republicans can win the Senate race in 2016 — if they run a campaign to suit the times.

Rather than make some high minded philosophical prediction about the ideological alignment of the voters or the strengths and weaknesses of the as-yet-unannounced candidates, I’d like to take a more tactical approach: if I were running the Republican Senate campaign, what would I do to maximize my strengths and exploit Democratic weaknesses? How can a Republican win the Senate race? I have a few ideas:

Ignore the prevailing media narrative

The editorial departments at The Baltimore Sun and The Washington Post see this race as the culmination of years of political narrative: a clash of the Washington and Baltimore metro-area Democratic political establishments. It’s come up in nearly every story about the emerging Democratic primary field. The central storyline will be about the emerging power of the DC suburbs matched against the long-standing dominance of the Baltimore metro area.

For a Republican candidate, this narrative is — at best — a distraction.

In Democrat-heavy Maryland, a successful Republican candidate cannot rely on running up the score in a “regional base” of support. No — they’ll need to develop sophisticated models that allow them to target voters individually and accurately wherever they are in the state. In 2015, you can target voters with incredible accuracy; if there’s a single Republican-leaning voter in a household, then that voter needs to be contacted — even if they’re deep in Prince George’s county.

Focus on the General Election

The Democrats are going to fight a bloody and drawn-out Primary battle. It will be merciless, it will be expensive, and it will divide the party’s talent in several directions. After a devastating loss in 2014 — and with former Governor O’Malley’s attention on the national stage — the Maryland Democratic Party is largely leaderless. This is an opportunity.

If at all possible, Governor Hogan, the MD GOP, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee ought to work swiftly to clear the field for the strongest nominee. That’s not to say that there ought not be a Primary, but if the party’s elders can (a) get non-candidates to publicly bow out and (b) get weak candidates to recognize that they’ll lose, anyway, it will help avoid a messy and pointless Primary battle on the GOP side.

Use data to get votes; save money

In the meantime, while the Democrats slug out their intra-party regional battle, the state Republican Party ought to be building an accurate database of target voters throughout the state that can be handed over to the eventual nominee. The Democrats — by virtue of their lauded VAN file — have a head start on this process, and it’s time for the MD GOP to close that gap.

You’ll only get the votes you ask for, and the more directly you ask (and the more relevant your pitch) the more likely you are to be successful. Radio ads are great. TV is great — and getting better. Targeted digital ads are better. And a door knock — or, better yet, a direct ask from a personal friend — is on another level altogether. There’s loads of research and data to back this up. Lets campaign like it.

Still not convinced? Accurate data and modeling can save a campaign loads of money. With good data, you can remove folks from your direct mail, door-to-door, and phone banking lists who: (a) already support you, (b) have already been contacted, or (c) are never going to support you. Every person you don’t contact is money saved, and that money can be reinvested where it can make a difference.

Speak directly to voters

Do campaigns need to have digestable, overarching themes? Yes. Does that theme need to be the sum total of their message? Absolutely not.

During the 2012 campaign, President Obama now-famously tailored his messaging to individual voters in an unprecedented way — allowing him to speak directly to their concerns, hopes, and dreams in a way no candidate had ever done before. Republicans can do that, as well, and will have to at least attempt it if they’ll be successful in 2016.

The recaps of the 2014 Gubernatorial campaign and the early forecasts of the upcoming Senate race focus on the GOP’s messaging — that it was narrow, focused, and spot-on in 2014… and likely to be too conservative in 2016. That’s a gross oversimplification of a complex reality.

In 2016, Republicans can succeed by speaking to individual voters — even individuals within a household — about the issues that matter most to them. We can be constructive, rather than divisive, without compromising our core values. Senator Rand Paul has been championing this approach lately, and Maryland Republicans should follow his lead.

The bottom line

It’s pretty easy to sit behind a computer and say “so it has been, and so it will be again,” but as they say in sports: that’s why they play the game. Do Democrats hold many advantages in a statewide race in Maryland? Absolutely. But by focusing our resources and attention where they can have the most impact, Maryland Republicans can absolutely compete for — and win — the Senate race in 2016.

Originally published at log.ianpatrickhines.com.