Battleground New Hampshire

First (and Last) In The Nation

Granite Staters jealously guard their First in the Nation Presidential Primary status. Every quadrennial, Democrats and Republicans work within their party contexts to protect their lead off position on the primary calendar. In 2016, however, New Hampshire voters find themselves in the unusual position of occupying the political limelight as the general election comes to an end. In the final days of this Presidential election, New Hampshire with its four electoral college votes will host both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, President Barack Obama, and numerous family members and surrogates.

Voters in New Hampshire have expressed their frustration and anger in the many polls conducted throughout primary season and the general election. The best indicator of voter discontent came in the victories of Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump over a crowded field of Republican hopefuls. Primary exit polls reflected here what they would say across the country. Voters are frustrated and angry with the establishment wings of their parties. Sanders and Trump became very different voices for a common sense of frustration and represented a strong desire for change.

Ten months later, the primaries are over and New Hampshire voters are being asked to choose between two unpopular candidates each embroiled in controversy. Most polls released leading up to election day have the race within the margin of error. New Hampshire has become a key, swing state. And with that status come a series of questions about down ballot races.

What to Watch For on Election Day in New Hampshire

First, voter turnout will be huuuge. According to Secretary of State William Gardner, turnout is expected to be the highest in history. What’s interesting in the New Hampshire context is determining which candidate high turnout helps more. If turnout is connected to those frustrated and angry voters that gave primary victories to Sanders and Trump, then Clinton may be in for a long night. On the other hand, if high turnout is linked to an unprecedented get out the vote (GOTV) effort by team Clinton specifically targeting millennials, first time voters, and women then the Granite State will swing blue.

Second, high voter turnout is important, but, beyond the volume of voting there are some helpful early indicators that come based on what’s being reported early in the night. Larger towns and cities tend to report earlier than the many smaller towns, villages and hamlets that dot landscape of New Hampshire. And in the cases of the larger towns and cities, as UNH Political Scientist Dante Scala said in a recent interview, “It’s all about the margins.” That is, in larger towns and cities like Concord, Portsmouth and Keene, where Republicans do not generally enjoy much success, the margins of Clinton’s leads should be significant. If the results in those towns are close, that bodes well for Trump. Conversely, in places like Manchester’s West Side, Nashua, and Laconia, with significant numbers of working class voters, early tallies will let us know if those voters have turned out.

Third, campaigns matter. This cycle there has been plenty written about the large gap in focus on campaign infrastructure between teams Clinton and Trump. But, where campaigns matter a great deal is in where we find ourselves with just hours to go until New Hampshire voters head to the polls: Get Out The Vote. The GOTV effort has been unprecedented in the Granite State with voters reporting multiple visits to their households, often one time each for every registered voter under the roof.

Fourth, as mentioned above, New Hampshire is ground zero for both campaigns with just hours to go. The stakes may be just a bit higher for Trump. Still, despite tightening polls, Team Trump has its work cut out for it. No Republican has won New Hampshire since the 2000 election. But, a focus on NH makes sense considering that unlike nearly three dozen other states, there is no early voting and there is same day voter registration. As of the weekend before election day, 30 million early votes have been cast across the country. In New Hampshire, that number is zero. So, a late focus on Granite Staters allows the Trump Campaign to make a closing argument in a state where citizens have yet to cast a vote.

Hillary Clinton’s focus on New Hampshire amounts to more of a defensive strategy. Denying Trump New Hampshire makes his already narrow path to 270 Electoral College votes that much more difficult. It’s also not lost on the Clinton team that had New Hampshire gone for Gore in 2000, Florida would never have happened. So, for democrats, New Hampshire is a granite firewall against possible surprises that may come later on election night.

Fifth, the US Senate race between republican Senator Kelly Ayotte and her democratic challenger, Governor Maggie Hassan may be the hottest race in the country. If outside spending is any indicator, the $100 million expected to be spent by election day suggests that New Hampshire represents a key race for control of the Senate. Polling just hours before voters head to the polls reveals a dead heat in the race. Interestingly, Sen. Ayotte has outperformed Donald Trump in the last month of the election. It remains to be seen how closely linked the incumbent senator’s fate is tied to the top of the ticket.

Finally, because of New Hampshire’s unique tradition of being first in the nation on the presidential primary calendar the end of the 2016 calendar is a reminder of what comes next. Beginning on November 9th, Granite Staters will begin to count down the days until the arrival of the first would-be candidate of the 2020 New Hampshire Primary. Stay tuned…