The 2016 Des Moines Register Poll

Depending on who you ask, the Des Moines Register poll (just released tonight) is the gold standard for projecting the results of Monday’s presidential caucus in Iowa. I tend to side with that sentiment. The uniquely complex nature of the Iowa caucus certainly adds to the challenge for outside pollsters to effectively forecast how an evolving group of people will behave in the future. And the rapid changes and advancement in technology and mass media, only seem accentuate that. For whatever reason, The Des Moines Register seems to predict Iowa caucus goer behavior better than outside polling groups. Here is what they found:

2016 DMR polling results, GOP:
Donald Trump: 28
Ted Cruz: 23
Marco Rubio: 15
Ben Carson: 10
Rand Paul: 5
Chris Christie: 3

2016 DMR polling results, Democrats:
Hillary Clinton: 45
Bernie Sanders: 42
Martin O’Malley: 3

Here are some previous results from the DMR poll for historical context:

2012 DMR polling results, GOP:
Mitt Romney: 24
Ron Paul: 22
Rick Santorum: 15
Newt Gingrich: 12

2012 actual caucus results:
Rick Santorum: 24.6
Mitt Romney: 24.5
Ron Paul: 21.4
Newt Gingrich: 13.3

2008 DMR polling results, GOP:
Mike Huckabee: 32
John McCain: 26
Mitt Romney: 13
Fred Thompson: 9
Ron Paul: 9

2008 actual results, GOP:
Mike Huckabee: 34.4
Mitt Romney: 25.2
Fred Thompson: 13.4
John McCain: 13
Ron Paul: 9.9

2008 DMR polling results, Democrats:
Barack Obama: 32
Hillary Clinton: 25
John Edwards: 24
Joe Biden: 4

2008 actual results, Democrats:
Barack Obama: 37.5
John Edwards: 29.7
Hillary Clinton: 29.4
Joe Biden: 0.9

Lastly, here is an interesting piece from Politico on “legendary Iowa pollster Ann Selzer” who conducts the Des Moines Register poll:

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