The game Trump is playing on the media and us
Look at this. This is clickbait “journalism” from the Washington Post. It’s about Trump, naturally. The Facebook meta-title of this post invites us to “break down the latest amazing photo from a Donald Trump rally.” The actual title of the piece is “The Only Donald Trump photo you need to see today.” The message is clear: Click on this, not the other piece about Trump right below it.
The strategy is working. In November, the Washington Post got more monthly uniques than The New York Times. Cable news ratings are the highest they’ve ever been. Trump saved journalism in 2015, and by “journalism” we mean editors and reporters who believe that images of Trump’s whackadoodle supporters need to be “broken down” — or at least pretend they do to get clicks.
This would be funny if it did not have real-world, and potentially history-making consequences in the hijacking of a nomination process by a B-list reality TV celeb and the coronation of Hillary Clinton that would inevitably ensue as a result. A Nate Silver post last month showed that you can predict a candidate’s standing in the polls just by knowing two numbers: the share of that candidate’s media coverage amongst Republican candidates and the candidate’s favorability rating amongst Republican voters. I did some further work with these numbers and even built a calculator around them to help people better understand the game Trump is playing on the media and us. Here are two more things you need to know: the share of media coverage (to which this useless clickbait story contributes) is twice as influential a factor as whether voters actually like the candidate, and the two numbers explain 99.5 percent of the variation in polling. 99. Point. 5.
Having looked at this question of media coverage throughout the course of the election cycle, it’s clear that the media coverage is the tail that’s wagging the dog. A surge in media coverage and interest for a candidate invariably leads to a surge in polling for that candidate. And it doesn’t matter if that coverage is good or bad. As long as Trump is the focal point, he will lead in the polls. The longer he leads in the polls, the more likely it is he will be the nominee. At the end of the day, it’s a brute force game of impressions. Trump has played this game masterfully. As a master media manipulator for more than 30 years, he understands that traditional media is dying, and what remains of it must morph into entertainment in order to survive. The media needs clicks and eyeballs. Trump provides them. And the price to be paid for them may be our democracy.
