The Next Big Thing: February 19, 2017 Snippets
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This past week, the tech community was given a gift which many of us haven’t opened yet: another excellent @artypapers essay.
On numbers and experiences | Rebekah Cox, Artypapers
She asks: “If the UI for the consumer Internet has thus far been an ordered list, what, if anything, replaces that list? Could anything possibly? That’s a big question for number and experience companies alike but it’s a far more pressing concern for the number companies that are bound to its fate. (Note: read the whole essay to understand what she means here. It’s worth your time.) Conversational UIs were the first best guess. Voice is currently the strongest contender at this point. When you’re a number-driven company, the obvious future is no longer producing an ordered list from which to choose, but to provide the singular discrete answer via some form of artificial intelligence. That is an incredibly daunting task for a market that may not actually materialize. …
As of right now there’s no obvious next step. This ambiguity is pure opportunity. The next punctuation in the equilibrium is on the horizon and it will lay a foundation on which the next generation of companies will be built.”
In the past two weeks, we’ve covered a number of concepts in our Understanding Abundance series: frictionless consumption, if/else decision-making, specialized differentiation and utility, and the Red Queen concept. In doing so, we’ve arrived at a set of heuristics based on what’s happened in the recent past that might be helpful in understanding the future. And the critical question we now ask, at the beginning of part 3, is the same as Rebekah’s question: What is the foundation on which the next generation of companies will be built? At the start of 2017, there’s a popular leading candidate: AI. But while that’s a common answer, it might not be the best answer. “AI is the future foundation on which new stuff will be built” may well end up being today’s version of, “Telecom is the future foundation on which new stuff will be built.” I mean, you’re not wrong! Telecom is crucially important to what has followed. But if you wanted to find the largest expanse of unclaimed white space, Telecom wasn’t the best answer. The Web was the best answer.
So what could be the best answer today? One of the most far-sighted posts on where the whitespace is appearing came from Simon Wardley a few months ago:
Why the fuss about serverless? | Simon Wardley
Although the title suggests a discussion about serverless computing architecture, the real implications of Wardley’s post concern all of tech; and really, how businesses of all kinds will be created in the near future. Just as software removed the friction from execution, and the Internet removed the friction from distribution, we’re right at the beginning of a new abstraction that’s similar in character and potentially of the same magnitude. The next punctuation in the equilibrium is already here; the foundation for the next wave of abundance is in front of us:
Understanding Abundance, Part 3: The Next Big Thing
We hope you enjoy it, and we’ll see you back next week for the fourth and final chapter of our series.
Equal and opposite reactions:
Google Fiber sheds workers as it looks to a wireless future | Klint Finley, Wired
I don’t need Dropbox anymore, and it’s all Google Photos’ fault | Vlad Savov, The Verge
Don’t look now, but the great unbundling has spun into reverse | Jeremy Philips, NYT Dealbook
In central Europe, Germany’s renewable energy revolution causes friction | Zeke Turner, WSJ
People saying nice things about Warren Buffett:
Dear Warren: our 2017 annual letter from the Gates Foundation | Bill & Melinda Gates
The perfect pitch: how Ted Williams taught Warren Buffett to make better decisions | Shane Parrish
Diverting fortunes and their outcomes:
Inequality without poverty: observations on Singapore | Scott Sumner, The Money Illusion
Welcome to the Great Divergence | Richard Florida, CityLab
Media today:
2016 Year in Sports Media Report | Nielsen
Other reading from around the Internet:
Tech and the fake market tactic | Anil Dash
The views of Jupiter you won’t find in a textbook | Marina Koren, The Atlantic
Are UX design bootcamps worth it? A comprehensive survey | Nina Gannes
US Solar market grows by 95% in 2016; smashes records | Mike Munsell, Greentechmedia
TensorFlow image recognition on a Raspberry Pi | Matthew Rubashkin
How diversity makes us smarter | Katherine Phillips, Scientific American
Byron Wien discusses lessons learned in his first 80 years | Blackstone
And just for fun:
The forgotten history of the Oregon Trail, as told by its creators | Kevin Wong, Motherboard
In this week’s news and notes from the Social Capital family, Fast Company featured Propeller Health as among their most innovative companies of 2017:
Propeller Health: Fast Company World’s Most Innovative Companies 2017
It’s a well deserved recognition; not only for their hardware and software contributions to respiratory medicine but also for their inspiring progress-centric approach. In an interview a few months ago, Propeller Health CEO David Van Sickle explains how many patients with chronic respiratory conditions such as asthma and COPD can have a lot more potential for improvement than initially apparent:
“In many cases, people with asthma could be doing much better than they are, but they don’t realize that more could be done to eliminate or prevent their symptoms. An important part of what Propeller does is change expectations about what is possible, and to help patients and physicians identify the right approach to their care and treatment.
Another important goal of the Propeller experience is to help patients learn what triggers their personal symptoms. When Propeller observes a rescue inhaler event, we pull in data on the local environment, including temperature, humidity, air quality, airborne allergens, and more. We can use that information to identify what might be causing a specific person’s symptoms and provide personal tips and content about how to avoid those specific triggers. Because we learn a lot about the time and place that symptoms occur, we’re even able to use information from others in the community to help individuals do better. As an example, we recently published a peer-reviewed paper on how environmental data can be used to predict asthma risk, and we launched the first ever local asthma forecast, which shows users the risk of having asthma symptoms based on their current location. The Propeller system also provides educational information on the patient’s medications, such as technique training, and the importance of adherence and the management of symptoms. We aim to improve patient self-management, reduce their symptoms, help them obtain control of their disease and reduce exacerbations.”
Since raising their Series C late last year, Propeller Health has continued to blaze forward, racking up a series of collaborations with major pharma and device companies:
Propeller Health is hiring for several open positions, both in San Francisco and in Madison, Wisconsin. Some of the unique positions they’re looking to fill include Medical Science Writer, Biostatistician, and Quality & Regulatory Intern — so if you know anyone looking, please forward along to them.
Have a great week,
Alex & the team from Social Capital
