A Game of Thrones in Syria 2017
This article only covers Syrian’s Civil War major battle events in 2017, not included small skirmishes or small battles that do not hold significant or strategical importance.
The first and second part report major events and their changes in 2017, the third part is a summary that reflect some similarities between the real life conflict and the show. This work is not written by a Syrian Civil War expert.
War zone: Prior 2017
In the west of Syria, where prosperous cities like Hama, Homs, Latakia, Tartus are controlling by the Syrian government.
In the northwest, The Free Syrian Army (FSA) and its Islamists allies were just strategically lost the The Battle of Aleppo, which also known as “The Mother of All Battles”. A turning point which ended the hope of the rebel’s conquests for Aleppo Governorate.
Idlib Governorate, bordering Turkey, is a stronghold for rebels. Various of rebel factions and Islamists are controlling the area. The two strongest rebel groups in the governorate are Islamists group Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (Formerly known as Al Nusra and Al Qaeda in Syria). The two factions’ relationship are becoming strained recently due internal conflict. One example is Jabhat Fatah al-Sham sometimes protecting Jund al-Aqsa(Friends of ISIS), who were constantly causing trouble in the area. Besides, assassination and backstabbing are heavily spreading in this area due to ideology/political differences. The smaller rebel factions will have to take side soon.
Southwestern side, the capital of Syria, Damascus is largely controlling by the Syrian government with some rebels controlling the besieged eastern Ghouta suburb. Islamic State group(ISIS) controlling the Palestine’s refugee camp, Yarmouk Camp, which located within south of Damascus city. The Southern Front who are part of the FSA faction are still quietly healing themselves after their heavy defeats of many battles in Daraa Governorate.
At south border, USA-backed FSA’s Revolutionary Commando Army also known as Ghosts of the Desert, controlling the border city Al-Tanf which is one of the border crossing to Iraq. This small group only consists of a few hundreds personnel and mainly targeting ISIS forces.
In the north, sharing the border with Turkey’s soil stands firmly the Kurdish land, the Rojava. A secular autonomous region consists of three major cantons which are Afrin Canton, Jazira Canton, and Kobani Canton.
The Syrian Democratic Forces(SDF) are controlling these lands. They’re mostly joined by People’s Protection Unit(YPG) who are the armed militias in Rojava sworn to protect the Kurdish land from any invaders. There are some Arab tribes such as Al-Shaitat tribe, Shammar tribe, Al-Baggara tribes and other tribes joined the SDF ranks too. Their relationship with the rebels and the Syrian government is pretty much tentative.
The Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army (TFSA) located beside Afrin Canton are vowed to fight ISIS and YPG, one of their mission is to prevent the linking of the cantons and expel YPG and ISIS’s influences in their area.
In the east, an ambitious and extremely motivated force swiped a vast landlocked of eastern territory in such swift pace that no one is quick enough to response to its blitzkrieg expedition.
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is expanding their self-proclaimed Caliphate throughout Syria and Iraq and vow to cleanse the world from the infidels. Their brutal, rapid and fearless tactics not only scared those who stands in their way effectively but also terrorising the global with their notorious use of extreme violence such as suicide bombings, produce propaganda snuff films, ethnic cleanse and many unforgivable war crimes. Their “capital” Raqqa is located in northeast bank of the Euphrates River, is on the verge of war. After the Kurdish forces from northeastern cantons were united with the help of USA and Russia, the SDF are advancing towards the “capital” of ISIS steadily. The city is now laying with full of ISIS’s defences, booby-traps, tunnels, camouflage vantage point for snipers, masked militants are loading deadly IEDs into their vehicles which will later situated in house garages and corners, waiting to unleash a hellish mission like their brothers in Mosul.
The largest city in the east, Deir ez-Zor, trapped within the city are Assad’s forces, who are surrounded and besieged by blood lusted ISIS forces. The trapped Syrian army impressively withstand all the ISIS attacks thanks to their charismatic leader, Major General of the Syrian Republican Guard Issam Zahreddine, who constantly motivating and boosting his troops’ morale. Sometimes, people describe Deir ez-Zor as ISIS meat-grinder.
In the central Syria, the strategically ancient Roman city of Palmyra was exchanged a few times between Syrian army and ISIS.
But eventually falls under the control of the Syrian army. Which provides strategic point for the Syrian army to liberate their brothers in Deir ez-Zor.
War zone: Late 2017
In just one year, the geopolitical changes in Syria was extremely drastic. Ever since Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iran and Russia’s military intervention in 2015, the rebels were unable to gain any significant victory in Syria. Rebels in Aleppo were completely surrendered and were kicked out from the city which suggest that the city is thoroughly secured. Multiple large-scale offensives were launched by the rebels aiming to capture Hama but failed. Other small skirmishes were also did not gain anything significant or strategically importance.
In Idlib Governorate, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham re-branded themselves as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham(HTS), which they merged with other Salafists jihadist groups.
Many fighters from Ahrar al-Sham defected to HTS as now they are the dominated group. Internal conflicts were successfully sparked among rebels’ territories, with many once Ahrar dominated area fought and handed over to HTS. Ahrar’s influences was decreased immensely. In south of Idlib, HTS is now threatening by an underestimated but unstoppable small remnants of ISIS groups who were once based in Hama and Homs almost annihilated entirely by Assad’s forces and allies. This small groups were chased out from Idlib for awhile by HTS but now seems fighting back and claiming some HTS’s territories.
The Southern Front rebels and allies finally recovered some strength and able to initiate offensives capture parts of Daraa city districts. Then later in July, they became the first Syrian rebel group to agree to a de-escalation zone with Russia and the Syrian Army
The Al-Tanf USA funded rebels were threatened by the Syrian government to reduce it areas in the desert and mostly retreated back into Al-Tanf crossing. It was reported US special forces are operating in that area.
The Battle of Raqqa was lasted 4 months and it was a bloodied fight. The Raqqa Governorate was clear of ISIS, which means the city is now encircled by SDF forces.
Block by block, inch by inch, SDF was facing brutal challenges as they constantly encountered with VBIEDs and home-made drones that drop grenades on their group, snipers shooting them randomly and IEDs hiding in houses and doors. The Old City in Raqqa city was stalling the SDF advancements quite some times as buildings are getting more concentrated which makes it difficult to spot the militants. In the end, it was captured in October, but totally uninhabitable due to the heavy destruction throughout the battle.
The SDF continues to expand their territories, into the Deir ez-Zor Governorate and all the way near north of Al-Bukamal. Some ISIS forces are still lurking in the most eastern desert border, surrounded by SDF in the west and Iraqi forces in the east.
In February, Turkey’s supported FSA and Turkey’s army captured al-Bab city and then later Jarabulus before SDF, this is to prevent SDF from Manbij linking with Afrin’s canton. Turkey’s involvement successfully prevented it and increasing territories for Turkey backed FSA.
The Syrian army besieged in Deir ez-Zor city, was liberated by their special forces brothers, Tiger Forces, who lead by Colonel Suheil al-Hassan, another game changer in this war. The city is cleared of ISIS and the Syrian army continue advances(parallel to SDF from Hasakah)to the south to destroy the rest of ISIS’s influences all the way to Al Bukamal. Issam Zahreddine was killed in the operation.
ISIS as proto-state was ended this year as they lost their “capital” Raqqa, and vast amount of territories. Besides, Mosul is captured, ISIS in Iraq hold no territories except hiding in borders and deserts. They might still hold some small settlements and villages in Deir ez-Zor Governorate, there were reports that they are still active in the governorate. Their last stronghold Al Bukamal was captured by the Syrian army.
Syria’s Game of Thrones
Like the Lannister, President Assad is currently the one who are sitting the throne now. Commanding his army to recapture all the territories and by any means necessary exterminate all enemies from his kingdom with the help of his allies.
Free Syrian Army, similar to Stark, consists of many bannermen who will answer their call, who were once citizen and loyal to the throne, but now rebelled and losing battles, but not the war yet…Most FSA were initially fighting for a greater Syria, a fair and democratic Syria. In the early days of Syrian Revolution, all factions including Islamists were unified under one umbrella, the Syria Opposition’s Free Syrian Army. But as the war continues and increases of foreign intervention, what the hell went wrong? The revolution was hijacked by trusting and sending in “allies” like ISIS and Al Qaeda. A revolution for a fair, democratic and freedom Syria was back-stabbed like King Robb and his family massacred in the red wedding, buried by betrays and selfish intentions.
The Night’s Watch are sworn to protect the wall and defend it from any threats beyond it. Couldn’t describe this without mentioning The Battle of Kobani, the battle which consisted of 10000 ISIS militants storming into the 2000 YPG’s city of Kobani. Fortunately with the help of USA’s airstrikes, the battle was turned into YPG’s favour. The battle was historical for Syrian-Kurds as they see it as Syria’s Battle of Stalingrad and a huge turning point of war against ISIS. Well, in Game of Thrones, maybe the Battle of Castle Black. Night’s Watch had slim chance to win the battle, but in the end Stannis and his army arrived helped Night’s Watch to crush Mance’s wildlings.
ISIS, a group that comes out of nowhere invaded half of Syria and Iraq within just a few years. Originally, they were part of Al Qaeda during the Iraqi Insurgency and helped the Free Syrian Army to fight against the Syrian government in Syria. Their supporters claimed they are the defenders of Sunni Muslims and they are willing to purge everyone until the end of the world, including the accused apostate Muslims too. Once worked together with the FSA to overthrow the Syrian government but back-stabbed and kicked them out of their territories. Just like the White Walkers,who are mysterious humanoid beings that risen from the death. Once humans but were transformed into zombie-like creatures to guard and protect the Children of the Forest from the First Men. Nonetheless, they broke free from the Children of the Forest’s control and become the most feared creatures in the Westeros, posing a threat to anything living.
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Map Legend:
Red: Syrian government
Green: Free Syrian Army/Islamist Allies
White: Al Nusra/Jabhat Fatah al-Sham/Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham
Yellow: Syrian Democratic Forces/YPG
Black: Islamic State
