Why Nigeria will beat Zambia

Kick-off in the pivotal encounter between Nigeria and Zambia in Uyo is five hours away as I write this. Have devoted a bit of thought to the game, and will set it down here.

LINEUP

There is little to suggest we will see a change from the Cameroon games. Purely in terms of the team’s spatial distribution, the only change would be a more dynamic left-back (I will touch on why after the game).

This aside, I like the dynamics of the team, and while we could control the game better with a tweak to that Ndidi-Onazi pivot, we also need to be wary of Zambia breaking. Therefore, I would stick with it today.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM ZAMBIA

Chipolopolo were impressive in their victories over Algeria, even with the obvious caveats surrounding Les Fennecs. They were a bit naive in the first leg, especially at the back (they are quite shoddy at defending set-pieces), but repaired that with a more controlled display in the second.

The pace of Patson Daka (if passed fit) will be a danger, but Zambia aren’t a one-man team at all. They’re quite composed in midfield, and can exploit poor spacing expertly.

A youthful, committed side that is exciting going forward, with a goalkeeper that’s slightly shaky (sadly, Mweene is not what he once was) — the Super Eagles could almost be playing a less savvy version of themselves today.

WHY NIGERIA WILL WIN

I struggle for a scenario in which Zambia get a result today. There is no levity in this view, and the visitors won’t roll over, but Ithink the Super Eagles will get the job done.

The state of the group will play into Nigeria’s hands somewhat. While inconvenient, a draw would not be the end of the world for Nigeria; even a loss on the final day would mean Zambia need a massive swing in goal difference against Cameroon to qualify. That simply will not happen.

That means Wedson Nyirenda’s side need to win today, and they know it. At the same time, they cannot afford a slugfest: high-scoring games tend to favour the favourites. I believe they will try to keep it tight in the opening periods, probably decide on a “safe time” mark, and then try to go for it in the second half.

This is when, I think, the Super Eagles will pull away (well, that or we score from a set-piece early on and this is all moot). Cannot be stressed enough though: it is crucial that the team — and the home crowd — keeps calm.

PREDICTION

Nigeria 2–0 Zambia