4 Trends Shaping the Future of the Music Industry
Originally published at https://soundcharts.com
The music industry is evolving faster than ever. Each year new platforms and mediums skyrocket to prominence, minting household names and reshaping the way audiences connect with artists (see: Tik Tok and Lil Nas X). Simultaneously, new technologies put creative tools into the hands of people who previously couldn’t access them.
Predicting the future of the music industry in this rapidly-evolving landscape is tricky. We’ve had the chance to discuss it (among many other things) with the music industry executives we’ve interviewed on our Music-Biz podcast. This article offers a series of viewpoints and perspectives to give you a collective (though not definitive) outlook of the future of the music industry.
We want to thank all the participants of our Insiders podcasts and give a special shoutout to Cherie Hu, Bas Grasmayer ( MUSIC x TECH x FUTURE) and Darren Hemmings (MD of Motive Unknown) for their time and contributions that allowed us to put together this article.
1. How A.I will shape all the aspects of the Music Industry
The development of A.I. will automate a whole host of expensive, time-consuming, and complicated processes across music creation and advertising, cutting out the middlemen and democratizing the industry.
The democratization of music creation and distribution
A.I. tools like A.I-mediated composition (Amper, Popgun, etc.) and voice synthesis will make it easier and more affordable for thousands of musicians all over the globe to create high-quality, professional-sounding music.
“It’s a transition from mass-consumption to mass-creation. These kids who grew up in Minecraft are coming through, they entertain themselves by being creative. […] A.I. is just going to give them new creative tools and let them create whatever they can imagine.
Stephen Phillips, CEO of A.I. lab Mawson
“I am personally excited about technologies that will enable more people than ever before — people who would never have considered themselves “artists” — to make music for the first time, often with the help of artificial intelligence. Such technologies include voice synthesis (e.g. Replica Studios) and AI-facilitated composition (e.g. Boomy, Bronze) tools that will enable people to go through the funnel from creation to distribution and then monetization in record time.”
Cherie Hu
“The other thing I’m super into is that I think every kid in the world in the next two or three years will have all the tools they need to become a global pop star. (…) From anywhere on the planet: you won’t have to be in New York. You won’t have to be in L.A. You won’t have to be in London. You could be in Ghana and you could be a global superstar. I think it’s like two years away.”
Bob Moz, MD of Techstars Music
“The other trend is the further democratization of music creation through high-quality production software made cheaply available on mobile devices or in-browser, and often has some type of AI-assistance, making it easy to create something that sounds good.”
Bas Grasmayer (MUSIC x TECH x FUTURE)
More income and new, better ads for artists
A.I. will also make it easier to create and deliver the right messages to the right audience at the right time. On the music industry side, it will help artists reach their audience more efficiently, and thus, drive more income.
“Having seen what it is capable of around advertising and marketing already, I suspect that A.I. will come to play a larger and larger role in finessing ad campaigns and delivering more revenue back to artists.”
Darren Hemmings, MD Motive Unknown
Advertisers can harness the power of A.I. to better tailor ads to the preferences and tastes of listeners. Algorithms will use consumer data to display adaptive ad-content linked to the specific moment, location, and user, making branded content fit seamlessly into our consumption patterns. Better personalized ads will generate more ROI and more revenue for artists that will target the communications to reach the right audiences at the right moment.
“I can start recommending content to you as a user, because I can see what people around you are listening to by virtue of proximity, or day of the week, or the day time of the day. I mean, I might not listen to EDM at 7 a.m. on a Wednesday morning, when I’m getting ready for work, but come Friday evening at 7 pm — I’m totally into it. So, just the behavioural patterns of users. And so I think, more and more, the advertising is going to become smarter, and the branded content is going to become smarter, and it’s going to become far more relevant.”
Catherine Lückhoff, founder of NicheStreem
Machine learning will change everything
Music production, event planning, playlist recommendation: machine learning will make it all simpler (and more effective).
“I’m excited about machine learning and its many implications. It can create better recommendations, help more people make music, make energy grids of live events more efficient, improve the identification of rights owners and royalty distribution, and transform the medium of music itself to something different”
Bas Grasmayer (MUSIC x TECH x FUTURE)
Machine learning is the fuel of the future, that will transform everything — from metadata management and music composition to the way people listen to music.
2. How the way we consume music will change
“Voice-mediated music consumption and smart speakers will change the way we consume music”
Voice queries will allow listeners to effortlessly listen to music that suits their immediate mood or preference without having to interact with text interfaces and toggle through albums or playlists.
“What do you play when the person says “play a sad song”? My son’s 9. He talks to Alexa non-stop all day. He has no concept of albums. He has no concept of media brands. He has no concept of playlist thing or groups of songs. His relationships are with Alexa and with the artist or the song name. He is […] discovering things in the voice environment. And [that is] a whole thread in music right. How do we prepare for voice? What’s the metadata looks like? What’s the tagging look like? How do we read emotions there?”
Bob Moz, MD of Techstars Music
The rise of the local repertoires in the streaming age
The democratization of streaming will come from new markets. In these upcoming territories, music consumption will be different from the one we see today. This new flux of streamers coming from all around the globe will increasingly place the music industry’s focus on local repertoires.
“The “next billion” streaming consumers are arguably not going to come from Western markets nor primarily from developed, urban cities, but rather from more rural areas in Asia, Africa and Latin America with deeper interest in local/regional repertoire and talent. Both streaming services and record labels will have to retool their value proposition, pricing structure and user experience to meet these distinct needs (e.g. low-data plans, multi-tiered pricing, local/regional languages and customs).”
Cherie Hu
Some of the local markets will experience rapid, significant shifts as a result of the complexity of their current system:
“And there’s going to be this transition. It’s probably going to be abrupt. It’s only going to happen once, this big shift. […] Despite how difficult and complex Japan is, the language, the business culture, all these differences; […] this change has to happen. It’s inevitable, so it’s just about how that’s going to happen. In Japan, nobody knows but everybody’s just trying to position themselves.”
Goshi Manabe, President of Trigger Entertainment Network and the LA-based International Rep & Advisor for RecoChoku
Generative music will rise thanks to contextual playlists
Contextual playlists will transform how listeners discover music, and generative music (music, created by algorithms and computer systems) will increasingly cater to listeners looking for mood-specific playlists.
“People are using music to augment their moments and days. This leads to new opportunities and challenges. How do you still stand out when much of music discovery happens in the background? How do you define and win real fans rather than people who just add one of your songs to their playlists? How does this behaviour compete with other behaviours, like listening to podcasts, meditation soundscapes, or generative music? Generative music will keep on getting better, as more entrepreneurs and investors enter the space, sensing opportunity.”
Bas Grasmayer (MUSIC x TECH x FUTURE)
We’ve already seen apps like Endel going viral in Japan, and we can predict that other solutions will emerge — for example, meditation apps might employ generative algorithms to power their ambient playlists.
3. How different areas of media will start to converge
Barriers that once existed between various media and creative industries like music, fashion, and film are now melting down, and this trend will only quicken in the future.
“Record labels are investing more in biopics and documentaries around their artists (e.g. “Bohemian Rhapsody”); gaming companies are partnering with artists on in-game musical concerts (e.g. Fortnite x Marshmello); major artists are running their own fashion houses (e.g. Rihanna x Fenty); some artists are even hosting their own cooking shows (e.g. “In the Mix with Matt FX).”
Cherie also spoke about new music brands that are breaking the mold of traditional major labels, melding various different areas of media and creative endeavors into a single brand of artistry:
“In my view, new music brands like 88rising, COLORS, Thrice Cooked Media, Lyrical Lemonade and Trap Nation that embrace diversification and border-blending will serve as a much more compelling blueprint for future music companies than any major label will.”
The growing crossover between music and gaming
With the advent of video streaming services like YouTube, Twitch, and TikTok, the music and gaming industries are overlapping more than ever.
“Billy, he was a video gamer. And he just wanted to upload his YouTube videos with music on it but kept getting taken down. He was like, “Right, I’m going to sign the music myself, then I won’t have the issue of my video getting taken down”. Again he was fulfilling a need of other people like him. And that snowballed, and you now discovered the likes of Alan Walker”.
Farhana Aboo, Head of Marketing for AEI Group
Collaboration and genre fusion: the “Memes” Music hypothesis
Apps like TikTok allow listeners to use and repurpose music in unique, collaborative ways will break down barriers between genres (and between creators). That is something that already exists in the underground electronic scene — and it will touch on other genres in the years to come.
“I expect interesting effects from the “music like memes” trend. Here’s an example: someone has a musical idea relevant to their ‘scene’ or digital community. They put a track together, put it on Soundcloud, share to the community (e.g. a Facebook or Telegram group), of which members then take the idea and iterate on it through remixes, edits, mashups. This is very common in “internet genres” such as nightcore, but could also be witnessed with the rise of moombahton around 2010, as well as most other electronic niche genres since.”
Bas Grasmayer (MUSIC x TECH x FUTURE)
4. How the financial aspect of the music industry will increasingly detach from the artistic side (and how this empowers artists)
Labels and producers traditionally held power to make (or at least influence) the creative decisions. However, social media has enabled artists to create a personal brand and connect with fans directly — without any label interference. This will lead to labels taking more of a VC-like approach, handling the financials — while the artist (and their manager) focuses on artistic direction and brand-building.
“A.I. is going to allow young pop stars to be discovered earlier, to communicate exactly what they’re feeling and saying to each other. And I think it’ll just lead to a completely new pop-industry. These stars will still need the labels to get exposure and manage their careers. I see labels as VCs for the music industry, and they’ll still have to invest in the talent, and I think they’ll just see more of it, earlier than they’ve seen before, and I think it’s gonna be a great boom for them.”
Stephen Phillips, CEO of A.I. lab Mawson
As artists grow more powerful, so will music managers
Social media and streaming services have skewed the balance of power away from labels and back towards artists. In turn, music managers will begin running more and more aspects of an artist’s career.
In the new music ecosystem, managers will increase their share of the work in artist development, both as promoters and additional D.A.’s (rather than just promoting the interests of the artist).
“With more and more managers taking the power back to run things directly now, something they are starting to realise is that their operation needs solid structure and support. Getting that workflow and organisational side down could drastically change the financial fortunes of many an artist, so I think it’s one of those “not sexy, but nonetheless very important” areas that nobody really discusses.”
Darren Hemmings, MD of Motive Unknown
Conclusion
In just 20 years or so the internet has completely reshaped the music industry, and we’re still only in the early stages of this transformation. Democratization and collaboration will become the order of the day: artists will be able to create professional-quality music on the spot. Streaming will conquer new markets, giving millions of people unlimited access to music. The trend of democratization will be powered by emerging markets, rather than the traditional ones, that rule over the industry today.
Artists will connect with new audiences, both far-flung and right at home. Music will be used and repurposed in ever more creative and unique ways. Old barriers between media will break down.
All of these processes are already well underway. Getting a peek into the future is just a matter of understanding the shifts that are happening now.
