The Looming Space War
Check your watches. You may not be thinking about a space war, but several nations are already ahead of the game.
In late 2019, former President Donald Trump shocked much of America by establishing the Space Force. “Oh, he’s being silly” was a common remark I heard between friends and family. The few that took Trump seriously couldn’t imagine what a space force would be good for in the 21st century. There was even an entire Netflix show making fun of the idea. I would be lying if I didn’t mention that I laughed about it too, but now, I realize that the creation of the Space Force is much bigger than a presumed political stunt. It marked the beginning of the US — and the rest of the world — recognizing space as potential war territory.
Don’t be fooled by the name. The Space Force wasn’t the first “space force.” On September 1, 1982, the Air Force Space Command (AFSC) entered the Air Force, focusing on space missions. The AFSC was exceptionally helpful in space-based support for military action in Afghanistan and Iraq following 9/11. In 1985, the US Space Command was established and extended to all military branches to conduct space missions. Although the US redesignated the AFSC as the US Space Force, the US Space Command remains a separate entity. As for what the Space Force will do, it will essentially operate as any other military branch except in the space domain. Currently, the Space Force specializes in surveillance and communications while assisting in rocket launches and space flight operations. We may be far off from Star Wars technology, but that is not to say space weapons do not already exist.
Since the Space Race, Russia (then the USSR) continues to be a top contender in the space frontier. It is relatively neutral concerning the global space economy but is slowly striving for independence in its space operations. Russia has been planning to withdraw from the International Space Station for a while now. Only until recently did a more definitive statement arise of Russia leaving the ISS after 2024. Also, Russia supports current space arms control agreements to prevent weaponizing space, but its military doctrine and authoritative writings strongly indicate that Russia views space as a warzone. Take it from Dmitry Rogozin, the previous Chief Roscomos (the Russian space agency):
“Slowly but surely, we are heading toward [militarization of space]. Roscosmos has no illusions about this. Everyone is working on it.”
What has Russia done so far in space? During the Space Race, the USSR developed 18 fractional orbit bombardment systems (FOBs). Much like a low-flying missile with a nuclear warhead, the FOB could change course and trajectory at will with its thrusters. The US had to develop warning systems to get an idea of when and where the FOB could land (though it wouldn’t be much help considering how unpredictable the FOB’s landing would be). More recently, the Russian military has prioritized “information confrontation” (aka the weaponizing of information through hacks and jams to satellites). In November 2021, Russia tested an Anti-Satellite (ASAT) missile system that added heavy debris in space. Most of the space bits are lethal but nontrackable, further complicating trajectory paths in future space flights. These ASAT missile systems can destroy space systems in low Earth orbits, including military intelligence and other communication satellites. Russia also has a handful of ground-based lasers, among other things, that can blind satellite sensors.
China is another considerable force in space, and it even puts more national efforts into its space projects than Russia can afford. China now launches twice as many spacecrafts a year and has double the satellites in orbit compared to the last decade. It has also tested several ASAT missiles and has developed mobile jammers to deny satellite communication and GPS. Like Russia, China has developed a FOB of its own; it launched in October last year as a surprise to many US military officials. China, too, advocates for space to remain peaceful and is communicating with the United Nations to do just that.
The space-bound nations don’t stop there. Iran is currently in a backlog of launching its fully constructed satellites, but that hasn’t stopped the space-targeted hacking. Since 2010, Iran has marketed numerous GPS jammers on its state-owned Iran Electronics Industries website. As for North Korea, it has been using counterspace capabilities like GPS and SATCOM jamming on Earth and testing ballistic missile technology in space. Essentially, any nation that can do something in space will do something in space. It’s a full circle back to the creation of the Space Force, which, contrary to some beliefs, did not just pop up out of nowhere. Space is, quite literally, the last place a nation can go. Wars and battles took place on land, water, and air; before we know it, a space war will be among us.
As you may have noticed, tampering with information and blasting complex missile systems continue to be the gray area for acceptable. And all nations have promised peace in space…until. The uncertainty of what constitutes a space war — much less when it’s likely to happen — remains an unsettling fact that we all must accept. Meanwhile, nations leading the race of “soft” militarization will continue developing weapons and schemes that are safe enough to get by.
