I discovered the real system changing power of Blockchain technology and Bitcoin in November 2017.
I did the technological deep-dive, even when I am not a techie. I read groundbreaking pieces like The Bullish case for Bitcoin and watched ALL YouTube videos available around that time.
It made me gasp for air, not sleep at night and even write a manifesto. Why?
Finally, something was invented that can break down centralized systems in the world, can disrupt the corrupt financial system. New money for the people.
I am a rebel, revolutionary, I protested against nuclear power in the 80ies, read Paulo Freire Power of the submitted and have a big sense for social engagement and justice.
I paid off a post student bank debt of €20.000,- in ten years so I paid €40.000,- including interest and it made me swear never to take a mortgage or loan again from a bank. I feel very uncomfortable even being inside a bank.
I learned that money is at the root of most problems in the world.
And on January 3rd 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto created a highly effective alternative that will disrupt our complete world in more equality, a redistribution of wealth and peer to peer cashless system of exchange. Hurai!
But not tomorrow.
This is what I also learned.
Each revolution has its phases, and we can’t predict exactly what will come out of it and where the great innovations will bring us.
Spoiler Alert: Internet hasn’t fulfilled its most idealistic promises as a worldwide free information sharing service. China and Russia are creating their own internet as we speak.
Whenever I see a post like; 10 million per Bitcoin?, I pull back a little in my emotions around crypto. First of all, because price is not everything in a revolution of money.
That is like saying the internet was only invented for Email.
And we need patience, a lot of patience. It might take 20 years to full system change.
Here is why we should be patient, enjoy the baby steps, and not get ahead of ourselves.
The adoption lifecycle of technology
The technology adoption life cycle is a sociological model that describes the adoption or acceptance of a new product or innovation, according to the demographic and psychological characteristics of defined adopter groups.
Bitcoin is in its early adopter's phase and we are still climbing the red steep parabolic line of inflated expectations.
We are still really pretty much in the beginning guys. Inflated expectations will burst, as the ICO bubble burst last year. According to this chart, there will be disillusionment.
What is most critical now is the adoption by more conservative early adopters. There are different groups of early adopters, and the conservative ones are, logically, the hardest to convince.
This is also called the early adopter's Chasm.
This can be done by technology significantly improving. I am thinking about the Bitcoin community tackling the problem of scale for example. This would mean that the Lightning network starts making big steps.
So where we really are, just face it Moon guys and boys, between the innovators and 13.5% early adopters.
I wonder weather a coming economic crisis would further accelerate the conservative adopters to throw the towel in the ring and start buying, hodling and using Bitcoin. And even better, start believing.
Only time will tell.
The success of a revolution of money depends on non-technical people joining
Innovation is only that good when it changes the ordinary lives of people
Lets face it, we are still far from Bitcoin changing the lives of ordinary people.
The non-techies joining is the start of the early majority in the lifecycle chart. I would say 5–8 years from now.
Through technical improvement, the barrier to buy Bitcoin and applying blockchain technology must be lowered, combined with rising awareness.
We are speaking about the safe-haven currency argument here for Bitcoin.
People in hyperinflation countries like Argentina and Venezuela keep on breaking records in over the counter purchases.
Today, it is really not that easy to get into Bitcoin, also due to regulations.
Many wallets don’t work in certain countries, and an easy one-step topping up your Bitcoins is slowly getting there, but then you pay really high commissions in consumer wallets like Coinbase. Again a centralized company profiting from a decentralized idea. Nothing changing really, is it?
Another group that would benefit from Bitcoin and its promise for money for the people are the conscious communities all around the globe. In fact, I believe they would benefit even more from blockchain technology to run transparent processes and turning around pyramids that need to be turned around.
This group should be interested because they want real change too, And technology can bring this now for the first time in hundreds of years.
The trust element
Take also in consideration the trust element here.
Remember the first time you scanned a QR code, and sent $10 to a public wallet address? Exciting no? I had to do it 5 times until I truly got relaxed about it.
And I am a believer
What about the average consumer, John Doe around the corner? Why would he move over?
At this moment maybe for some investment reasons, but still. It is a new technology, and still many people value the bank employee looking into a screen to see that is going on with your bank account when something goes wrong.
Don’t take it lightly, the fact that every day 2.7 million worth of crypto gets hacked. Also, normal non-tech people will do some due diligence before moving their savings onto an anonymous, trustless network without costumer service.
When was the last time a big bank got hacked? In reference to the yearly top 5'ves of crypto exchanges being robbed by some 17year old hacker nerds
Again, put yourself in the minds and experience of people that are OK with the current system. Why the hack would they move over to our bunch of post libertarians, cypherpunks and crypto-believers?
My best guess, only when their traditional money is really at stake. That will hit their core interest.
So again, an unprecedented economic crisis, banks falling and bank runs, even in the western world, creepy stuff like that.
Change of infrastructure takes time.
With every grand technological revolution of humanity, a new infrastructure had to be built.
When we moved from horses and carriers to cars, roads needed to be built. The majority believed it would never work.
When we moved from using gas pipes in households to electricity, the new infrastructure needed to be connected to all the houses, buildings etc. Just think of that operation.
And more recently, when we went from analogue to digital, fibers needed to be sunk into the ground, under complete oceans, to make our connection digital, fast and without noise.
Remember the old dial phone and the amount of noise? People were so used to this, that the phone companies that just went digital created digital noise, just to make people feel at ease.
Isn’t that incredible? People don’t want disruptive change that makes them change their habits. People cling to the old.
And now, the new infrastructure for decentralized accounting, validating, executing contracts and storing data is Blockchain technology. The Bitcoin blockchain is the best, most secure and tested, since it is more than 10 years old.
It will be the infrastructure for things that are really going to change our lives like the Internet of things, Self Driving Cars and Robotics.
And yet, we are really really just in the beginning!
The 2 main Blockchain issues need to be resolved first to move to mainstream trust and usage
When you like to be decentralized, you can only be that fast and scale that much. These issues must and will be solved, but add another 5–10 years easily.
When you go voting on a blockchain-driven system, you don’t want the same 17-year-old nerd hacker changes the course of history by electing the guy with fewer votes.
The general public needs to get used to the fact that we are moving towards network run structures to manage our society.
Politics, economics, environment and almost all parts of our lives can potentially run a blockchain in the future. All things can be tokenized eventually.
Of course, many are yelling that it won’t work, even when they figured out what a blockchain is and does in the first place. But it will be our next huge infrastructural change, and it will take decades. O, and yes, the majority will be centralized again. It will co-exist with decentralized systems, there were the real change resides.
What I like most about tech revolutions, they will evolve in mysterious ways.
Some stuff we can predict, like Bitcoin becoming the store of value, the digital gold in the new data economy, and that a new economic crisis will push adoption towards the conservative early adopters and even maybe towards the first of the early majority when the shit really hits the fan and banks fall like domino’s.
At the start of the revolution of information, the Internet, we couldn’t predict that you can literally go viral with a silly dance or a song on YouTube in a weekend and get millions of followers. Or the rise of Influencers and popularity becoming more important than knowledge or even truth.
We never were able to predict the Arabian spring, the revolution in Egypt sparked by bringing demonstrators together via Facebook.
But what we also learned from that same revolution, is that the new leaders of the people put the same kind of dictators in place, they just changed the robe of the Emporer, and the political, economic and social climate in Egypt might be even worse now than before the ‘revolution’.
I believe a true revolution of money, embedded in the movement of decentralization, only can work when our awareness on a big scale revolutionizes too.
That’s why keep on talking about Bitcoins price is just a hollow shell and has nothing to do with its real potential.
Because it is mainly driven by good old greed. The same thing our old corrupted systems are built on remember? It is these systems this great new technology that is called Blockchain and Bitcoin can potentially disrupt and transform to something that will serve us all.
I am a crypto educator living in Ibiza. When you like my work I highly recommend my Crypto Starters Guide.
I write because I want my words to make a positive impact in the world. For this, I initiated the medium publication “Spirit of Crypto”. My passion is to bring tribe together and as a storyteller, I tell the story of a better world through the revolution of money and the movement of decentralization. I believe a change in our economic system is key for us humans to thrive.