Five fake trades for Kevin Love that actually make (some) sense
With LeBron James living it up miles away from any Cleveland Blaze Pizza and trolling the Laker fans who long talked shit about him, this is the perfect time for the Cavaliers to hit the reset button for a quick rebuild. Tank, trade away anyone with value — namely Kevin Love and maybe Kyle Korver — and keep your top-10 protected first round pick.
But there’s been a lot of talk purporting that Dan Gilbert wants to stick it to LeBron by showing him the Cavs can make the playoffs without him. And GM Koby Altman recently seemed to reflect a desire to keep Love: “Kevin’s been incredible for us for four years and he wants to be here, and to me that’s a big part for guys that are here and the guys that we’re gonna acquire, is that they want to be here and be a part of this new chapter and culture that we’re creating.”
Without James, however, the Cavaliers are nowhere near contention, even in that putrid Eastern Conference. So the best way to build for the future is by compiling assets and trading Love to a contender hungry for an All-Star.
What’s the money like?
Barring some unexpected maneuvering, Love is poised to be the Cavs’ highest-paid and best player heading into the coming season. He’ll have a decision to make next offseason on whether to opt into the last year of his contract in what will be his age-30 season. I’m expecting him to opt out and seek the final, hefty contract of his career.
This presents whatever team acquires Love with an interesting quandary. If Love is 100 percent and rediscovering his Minnesota-era form, are they ready to pony up to keep Love well into his 30s? Or are they acquiring him as just a one-year rental? That dilemma, along with questions surrounding Love’s fit in matchups against the league’s elite team(s?), will likely drive his value down, as whatever squad acquires Love will likely be hoping to contend.
Here are the trades:
Indiana Pacers
Pacers include 2019 first round pick
With LeBron and as many as 13 of the league’s best 15 guys all in the West, the Eastern Conference is wide open for the first time in years. And while the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers are favorites to take the crown, Indiana could be a move away from making things very interesting.
Pairing Love with Victor Oladipo, Darren Collison, Myles Turner and the newly-acquired Doug McDermott (not to mention Tyreke Evans and Domantas Sabonis) would give Indiana a truly unstoppable offense. By staggering Oladipo and Love’s minutes, the Pacers can also ensure they’ll have an all-star on the floor at all times to keep the offense afloat. Last season, Indiana’s offensive rating dropped from a stellar 109.2 to 103.3 when Oladipo sat.
While defense would certainly be a question mark, Bogdanovic is overrated on that end after one good game against LeBron in the playoffs and wouldn’t be much of a loss. Meanwhile, the shooting and passing Love provides outweigh Young’s defensive advantages.
For Cleveland, acquiring two guys on expiring contracts means they won’t have to worry about future cap constraints. Young and Bogdanovic could also both be flipped for second rounders at the trade deadline. Alternatively, they can be used as fodder for the Cavs to take on some bad, long-term deals along with first round picks, with Altman parroting the Brooklyn Nets’ rebuilding plan. The Cavs also get the Pacers’ first rounder, which will probably fall somewhere in the low 20s.
Washington Wizards
Plus the Wizards’ 2019 first round pick and lottery-protected 2021 first round pick
The Wizards greatly underperformed last season. After expecting to compete for at least a top-four seed, Washington grabbed the eight seed and dropped out of the playoffs after just six games against the Toronto Raptors.
They’ve already gone about resetting some of the problems that plagued them last season, namely getting rid of the chemistry problem that was Marcin Gortat. Of course, they replaced him with Dwight “literally every single team I’ve played for hates me” Howard. Oh, and John Wall and Bradley Beal still don’t get along.
Luckily for them, Love was just on a contender mired in a tenuous chemistry situation! Not to mention the huge offensive upgrade he provides over Morris. Love, Wall and Beal would immediately be one of the Eastern Conference’s best big threes. Love gives the Wizards’ offense a new dimension. He will feast off Wall’s excellent passing and provides excellent spacing around the Wall-Howard pick-and-roll. Perhaps just as crucial for the Wizards would be getting rid of Mahinmi’s terrible contract.
In exchange for the Cavs’ troubles, the Wizards ship out two first round picks — one for Love, one for taking on Mahinmi. That 2019 first round pick would likely fall in the 20s, but the 2021 first rounder could be right in the teens. In Morris, Cleveland gets someone valuable to send off to contenders at the trade deadline.
Phoenix Suns
Plus the Suns’ 2019 second round picks and lottery-protected 2020 first round pick (becomes two second round picks if not conveyed)
Based on their signing of the 33-year-old Trevor Ariza to a $15 million deal, the Suns seem inexplicably keyed in on trying to make the playoffs. This deal, which truly guts the Eastern Conference, gives the Suns an All-Star that pushes them right into the mix at minimal cost.
While losing Dragan Bender, who’s still only 20, could hurt, he’s really shown nothing at all through two seasons. There aren’t many third-year players in Summer League, and the fact that Bender has still struggled against younger and less experienced players should be enough to coax the Suns into moving on.
In adding Love, Phoenix’s starting five — point guard to be named, Devin Booker, Josh Jackson/Ariza, Love and DeAndre Ayton — gets a crucial influx of shooting and the move lets head coach Igor Kokoškov move TJ Warren into a bench-scoring role. And though Love can opt out of the final year of his contract, the Suns will have the flexibility to keep him for a few more years at the cost of 2019 cap space unlikely to yield them anyone better than Love.
Even with this deal, the Suns probably wouldn’t make the playoffs in the West, but hey, that didn’t stop them from adding Ariza.
As for Cleveland, this deal hinges on their belief in Bender. The stretchy big is young and was drafted fourth overall just two years ago. His ceiling is high and the Cavs are really in a position where they should be making ceiling plays. Bender, Collin Sexton, Larry Nance and Cedi Osman are not the worst core moving forward. If the Cavs aren’t high on Bender, they could ask for Marquese Chriss instead, but the Suns seem to — wrongly — value him more.
Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley give Cleveland two expiring contracts to move at the deadline, while the Suns’ picks — which will likely end up being three second rounders — are all likely to fall in the valuable 31–45 range of the second round.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder include 2020 second round pick and top-20 protected 2021 first round pick (2022 if the 2020 first rounder owed to the Magic conveys)
With the Thunder looking to unload Carmelo Anthony’s contract, this deal provides Oklahoma City with a new twist on the offensive end in the form of Love. It also helps them shed $6 million to reduce their record-breaking luxury tax bill. To continue reducing their tax bill, the Thunder will cut and stretch Kyle Singler, and do the same with Patrick Patterson.
On the court, Love’s incredible shooting ability and willingness to take a backseat to stars make him what the Thunder hoped they could get from Anthony last year. Love’s passing is also crucial for a team whose only good passer is Russell Westbrook (to Paul George: all shade is intended).
Losing Ferguson hurts, but Love’s immediate boost to the Thunder is well worth it. The All-Star forward does hurt the Thunder’s vaunted defensive versatility, but his presence is the only thing that can make lineups pairing Andre Roberson and Steven Adams offensively tenable. Would this team challenge a healthy Warriors team? No. But it’d be a lot closer to second place, aptly positioned to fill a power vacuum in case of injury.
For Cleveland, this deal is a no-brainer. They buy out Carmelo the second he arrives — something he’d demand in order to waive his no-trade clause — and create some extra cushion between them and the luxury tax. In Ferguson, you get a high-ceiling wing to build your team around going forward. The first rounder is years away and will only convey if all of Westbrook, George and Love (assuming the Thunder keep him) stay viable three years down the road. If not and Oklahoma City finds itself in the lottery? Cleveland can count on two decent second round picks to go along with the 2020 pick.
THREE-TEAM MESS: Love to Portland
Portland sends its lottery-protected 2019 first round pick to Cleveland
This deal is admittedly, extremely unlikely to ever happen. But it really does work to the benefit of each team involved. First, I’ll start with Cleveland this time. The Cavs get Wiggins back from the Timberwolves, ironically in a trade again involving Love. Though his five-year, $146.5 MILLION (I wish you could capitalize numbers) contract is unpalatable, Wiggins’ ceiling remains high and taking a big swing on someone like him could pay massive dividends for the Cavs.
Of course, missing that swing would swamp Cleveland’s salary books for years to come. If they see the Wiggins experiment not paying enough, however, I think Cleveland would be able to shed that salary to another team that trusts its ability to develop stars in the 2019 offseason without too much cost. The Cavs mitigate some of that risk by taking on a first round pick from the Trail Blazers, though Cleveland also has to take on Meyers Leonard’s bad contract. In the short term, that’s not as bad as it seems, as Leonard’s ability to shoot threes — he’s made 37.3 percent of his threes during his career — should help Sexton and Wiggins develop with a spaced floor.
Now on to Minnesota. The Timberwolves are probably the biggest winner in this deal. They shed the Wiggins contract and get rid of any attitude problems that could arise as he craves a bigger role in the offense. In Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu, they get two low-usage, solid shooting, above-average defending wings. With Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns taking so many shots, filling out the rotation with great, switchy defenders who drill corner threes is the perfect recipe to create a winning stew in the modern NBA. The Timberwolves also get a young, cheap big in Larry Nance who’s a threat in the pick-and-roll and can back up Towns and make either Taj Gibson or Gorgui Dieng dispensable.
The Trail Blazers, meanwhile, bring in Love and Kyle Korver to make themselves one of the most dangerous offenses in the league. Without this trade, the Blazers look poised to enter the 2018–19 season with almost no shooting other than Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. But now, Love’s shooting and star power — as well as ties to the area that make him likely to stay on past this year — give Portland the crucial third banana they’ve been missing. Just as importantly, it also gives them the change of pace they so desperately need after years of early playoff exits.
I’ll concede that this trade, on paper, makes Portland’s defense an unmitigated disaster, but hey, head coach Terry Stotts’ system has worked miracles for many years. Additionally, the Blazers’ wing depth takes a huge hit here, and the Love-Jusuf Nurkic frontcourt pairing may not be good enough to make up for it. If Portland could make this trade and follow it up with taking a couple cheap swings on free agent wings — think Tyrone Wallace, Vince Carter, Treveon Graham or Marcus Georges-Hunt — they’d be in great shape moving forward. And, as a little cherry on top of the sundae, the Blazers get to shed Leonard’s bloated contract.
As fun as it is to speculate on who exactly will trade for Love and what they’ll be willing to give up, this exercise also proved a couple key points. Most notable of all is that Cleveland may have to check its expectations in trading Love. They’re unlikely to get blue chip guys in return, and that’s because of the key issue surrounding Love: his defensive fit in the modern, switch-heavy NBA.
Any team that takes on Love needs to be ready to pivot, like Cleveland did with LeBron, to an offense-heavy approach where they just outgun their opponents. For the NBA’s stagnant middle class of contenders — i.e. the Wizards, Trail Blazers and to some degree, the Thunder — that shift is risky, but a high-variance approach is preferable to death by first-round exits. Ultimately, teams who appreciate Love’s talent and are focused on making the fit work will find that he’s gettable for a great value.
