Here’s what’s going to happen this MLB season, featuring the 2018 World Series champs

Keith Allison/Creative Commons

The MLB season started Thursday. I know, I’m surprised too. Would it be so bad to start after the NCAA Tournament is over and at least get a little more of the spotlight?

Anyways, this baseball season is shaping up to be an interesting one, especially after a weirdly inactive offseason filled with teams trying to save money. While most years seem unpredicatble, this season partially seems preordained, likely to be headlined by faceoffs between super teams — namely the Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Indians, Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs.

But which of these teams will come out on top? Or will someone like the Boston Red Sox or the Philadelphia Phillies surprise? And who’s going to win all the major awards?

NL MVP:

Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

While I’m tempted to leave Freeman off this list because his injury sank my fantasy baseball team last year — that, combined with shoddy roster management and a lack of talent — I can’t ignore his potential. Before getting injured, Freeman was putting up some of the best numbers in the league. In March and April, he hit nine home runs, while batting .381 with an astounding .485 on-base percentage and a 1.283 OPS. He followed that up with a 14-game May highlighted by a 1.089 OPS, despite his batting average on balls in play dropping from .390 to .290.

Freeman got injured in May and wasn’t quite as good after coming back, but did finish the season with 28 home runs in 117 games and a .989 OPS, as well as 4.5 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. If he can maintain that level, or go back to his pre-injury performance form, Freeman can make a strong case for himself as the National League’s best hitter. The only things standing in his way are slightly below average fielding and a team not expected to do well (stay tuned for my thoughts on that).

Other contenders: Bryce Harper, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Cory Seager

AL MVP:

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

Maybe it’s boring to pick Mike Trout. Maybe it’d be more fun to pick someone like Francisco Lindor or Byron Buxton. But, sometimes, it’s boring being right.

Mike Trout is the best player in the majors by a mile. Ever after playing only 114 games in 2017, Trout managed an incredible 6.9 WAR, according to FanGraphs. And considering Trout’s still increasing proclivity for walks and hitting for power and against striking out, he’s likely to put up WAR at that same rate again. If he can manage even 130 games, Trout is likely a shoo-in for the prize.

Other contenders: Byron Buxton, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Jose Altuve

NL Cy Young:

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

It may seem like a bit of an oxymoron to say Stephen Strasburg did anything quietly considering the motherlode of hype he received during his first few years in the league, but the Nationals’ star flew under the radar a bit for much of last season.

In 175.1 innings pitched, Strasburg recorded a mighty fine 2.52 ERA and struck out 10.47 batters per nine innings. On top of that, his 46.8 percent groundball rate put him in the top 25 in the majors. That’s a key stat in the new juiced-ball era of MLB, with more fly balls ending up as home runs. Despite suffering an injury in the second half of the season, Strasburg pitched 62.2 innings after the All-Star break, and had an incredible 0.86 ERA in those innings, to go along with 10.91 strikeouts per nine.

If he’s even half as good as he was during that stretch and manages to stay healthy on a team that should rack up wins — still a key way to catch a voter’s eye — Strasburg will be hoisting that terrifying hand trophy come the end of the year.

Other contenders: Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard, Jon Gray

AL Cy Young:

Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

It’s not exactly a hot take to call Chris Sale one of the best pitchers in baseball. In fact, the strikeout machine has been one of the best five pitchers in the league for many years. Guys that great for that long rarely go their whole careers without winning the top prize. Sale will be no exception.

Before some late-season struggles last year, Sale looked like a lock to win the Cy Young. Even with a rough August-end of season in 2017, Sale managed 7.7 WAR, a stellar 12.93 strikeouts per nine, a 2.90 ERA and a 2.45 FIP, or fielding independent pitching. In September and October, where Sale’s struggles were especially bad, the Boston ace was unlucky to see a ridiculous 40.9 percent of his fly balls leave the park.

WIth a slightly better-managed workload and more consistent luck, Sale should come away with a well-deserved first Cy Young.

Other contenders: Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander

Surprise team:

Atlanta Braves

PECOTA projects the Braves to finish 76–86 in 2018, but I think they’re underestimating Atlanta’s potential.

First off, I’ve already showed how high I am on Freeman. Once the Braves stop conspiring to strip Ronald Acuña of a year of service time, the superstar prospect will join the Atlanta outfield and should make an immediate impact with his bat and in the field, after dominating at all levels of the minor leagues. Throw in Dansby Swanson, who can’t possibly be as bad with the bat as he was last year, and solid players like Ender Inciarte (3.0 WAR last season) and Ozzie Albies (1.9 WAR last season), and Atlanta has itself a good lineup.

The pitching staff figures to be more of a problem. But, I don’t believe Julio Teheran is as bad as he was last year, when he got knocked around to the tune of a 4.49 ERA and a 4.95 FIP that was right around the bottom of the league. Just one year earlier, in 2016, Teheran looked like a potential star, with a 3.21 ERA and a solid 3.69 FIP. If he can regain control and lower his walk rate back to 2016 levels (1.96 per nine innings vs. 3.44 in 2017), Teheran will be a good piece for the Braves’ rotation. He’s joined in the starting rotation by a series of lottery tickets, most notably Sean Newcomb, Mike Foltynewicz and the currently injured Luiz Gohara.

If those guys all live up to their potential, the Braves could seriously contend for an unexpected wild card spot, despite a lackluster bullpen. Even if all of those guys are just at the median in their range of possible outcomes, the Braves should find themselves pushing towards 82 wins, an achievement that would be a big win for the up-and-comers.

Other contenders: Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Oakland Athletics

Most likely team to disappoint:

Arizona Diamondbacks

Coming off a 93–69 year where they ranked fifth in the majors in run differential, the Diamondbacks are a popular pick to make the playoffs yet again. PECOTA pegs the Diamondbacks for 87 wins and has them easily sewing up the NL’s first wild card spot.

The Diamondbacks, however, are not going to waltz their way into the postseason. They’ll likely have to contend with the Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies, Braves, New York Mets and the Colorado Rockies for that spot. And, while I’m not betting the Diamondbacks will completely collapse, I don’t think they will make the postseason.

Zack Greinke, the Diamondbacks’ ace, is 34 and has struggled with his velocity in spring training. If that continues, and Arizona gets 2016 Greinke (2.2 WAR) instead of the 2017 one (5.1 WAR), the Diamondbacks’ rotation will take a major hit. Robbie Ray, another Diamondbacks stalwart, could be due for some regression after a year of outperforming his peripherals. Ray’s ERA of 2.89 was nearly a full point better than his FIP, and he benefited greatly from a .267 batting average on balls in play. The Diamondbacks’ bullpen is full of hit-or-miss guys, and projects to be a middle-of-the-pack unit.

As for the lineup, Arizona will be making due without JD Martinez, a power hitter who’s moved on to the Red Sox. While they have an MVP candidate in Paul Goldschmidt, the Diamondbacks will certainly feel the effects of missing Martinez, as well as the new offense-killing humidor in Chase Field. Of course, that humidor should also help the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff, but it introduces an interesting variable for the team to deal with and might make the friendly confines of the home park a tad less comfortable.

Other contenders: New York Yankees, Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies

Breakout player:

Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics

Chapman played 84 games in the majors last season and managed to quickly establish himself as a defensive standout at the hot corner.

No matter what happens with his bat, that glove gives the A’s a productive player. Luckily for Oakland, Chapman is no slouch at the plate. He has some top-tier power and can certainly drive the ball out of the park or into gaps of the Coliseum. Last year, he hit 14 home runs in the majors and had a .472 slugging percentage. In the minors, he was consistently slugging above .500.

Where Chapman most needs to improve is in his ability to draw walks. Like most sluggers, he’s prone to striking out — his 28.2 percent strikeout rate was right in line with his minor league performances. But, power hitters need to add that element of drawing walks. Chapman walked in less than 10 percent of his plate appearances last season, and he’ll need to get far beyond that to truly break out.

There are some promising signs for his ability to improve at getting walks. Most notably, despite his high strikeout rate, Chapman was actually better than average in terms of how often he swung at pitches outside of the zone, doing so only 26.6 percent of the time. What he struggled to do was connect on those pitches, doing so a well below average 56.2 percent of the time. He was far more likely to swing and miss. Laying off some more of those pitches would go a long way towards making Chapman as big of a plus offensively as he will be defensively. I’m betting he’ll do just that.

Other contenders: Luiz Gohara, Andrew Benintendi, Ian Happ

Playoff teams:

AL:

• East: Red Sox
• Central: Indians
• West: Astros
• Wild Card: Yankees, Angels
• Pennant: Indians

NL:

• East: Nationals
• Central: Cubs
• West: Dodgers
• Wild Card: Brewers, Cardinals
• Pennant: Nationals

The only major surprise here is the Red Sox coming out on top in the AL East. The race between them and the Yankees will likely come down to the final weeks of the season, but I just have more faith in the Red Sox to stay healthy (or get by with an injury or two), as the Yankees will be reliant on some injury risks, most notably Giancarlo Stanton. In a postseason series with both teams healthy, the Yankees would be the better team.

World Series:

Cleveland Indians beat Washington Nationals (4–1)

The Nationals, who’ve been one of the league’s best regular season teams for a while now, will finally make it out of the first round of the playoffs, buoyed by Scherzer, Strasburg and Harper. But, they’ll run into a buzzsaw of a Cleveland Indians team.

With Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, the Indians have two bonafide superstars in the lineup. Edwin Encarción gives them some much-needed pop and Michael Brantley should be a key contributor once he gets healthy. But the real reason the Indians will finally win a World Series is their pitching staff.

Corey Kluber gives them a luminary ace who will be looking for revenge after some rough playoff outings last year. Carlos Carrasco is another sleeper Cy Young candidate. Trevor Bauer is an overqualified third starter while Danny Salazar is a FIP darling. Add an outstanding bullpen, led by Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, and the Indians are the one team with the chops to slow down potential all-time great offenses like the Houston Astros and the New York Yankees in the postseason.

And in a World Series of competing excellent pitching staffs, that talented Indians’ bullpen and lineup will be the difference.