NBA X-factors: Here are the 6 players who will swing this year’s NBA title race
With the NBA playoffs right around the corner, there’s likely to be some tight match-ups to decide who gets to the finals. In the West, drama will be centered around beating the defending champion Golden State Warriors, whether that means a battle of titans with the Houston Rockets, or early-round match-ups with hungry teams hoping to beat the Warriors before Stephen Curry is 100 percent after his knee injury. Meanwhile, the East is home to a clusterfuck of epic proportions with contenders ranging from the Toronto Raptors and the Cleveland LeBrons to the ahead-of-schedule Philadelphia 76ers.
With tight matchups expected and unpredictability abound, key playoff series will likely be decided on the margins, with indispensable role players in position to shift the axis of power. Here are some of the crucial non-stars that playoff contenders that could swing series this postseason.
Philadelphia 76ers: Robert Covington
Philadelphia’s status as a legit contender to win the East is, without a doubt, one of the more shocking developments this season. While much of the Sixers’ success has stemmed from the sustained excellence of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, the burden of ensuring Philly achieves its full potential will fall on Robert Covington.
He’s averaged a solid 12.6 points per game while playing top-notch defense on the wing and hitting 36.9 percent of his threes. His defense gives the Sixers someone who can realistically stop any wing in the East other than LeBron James — Covington ranks 1st among starting forwards in Defensive RPM — and even then, Covington can at least get the King to exert more energy on offense than he would like. His ability to do so in the playoffs could be of utmost importance in a potential Eastern Conference Finals matchup. But, Covington has historically been an incredibly streaky three point shooter.
In the postseason, opposing teams will get a chance to key in on Simmons’ non-shooting to clog the lanes, and can do the same if Brett Brown gives Markelle Fultz any run in the postseason. Some of the effects of this strategy are neutralized because the remainder of key Sixers are all competent shooters, namely Embiid, Dario Saric (who was almost my pick for this spot), JJ Redick, Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova.
If Covington is able to hit threes at about his average, rather than like he has in so many of his off months, it’ll go a long way towards making the Sixers’ offense completely tenable, even with Simmons’ non-shooting. Surrounding Simmons with four capable shooters and floor spacers clears the lane enough to let the rookie build a head of steam and get to the rim, or alternatively take his defenders into the post, where he’s been a competent scorer and creator. Covington’s main offensive purpose will essentially be unlocking Simmons’ potential and punishing teams who take shortcuts in trying to stop the rookie.
Cleveland Cavaliers: George Hill
The Cavaliers have come around somewhat since totally overhauling their team at the trade deadline. But that has had very little to do with George Hill, who’s played 24 games and averaged only 9.4 points with less than three rebounds and assists per game with the Cavaliers. He’s stopped hitting threes, converting only 35.1 percent with Cleveland after making 45.3 percent of his long-range shots with the Kings this season.
If the Cavs truly want to right the ship and give themselves hope of doing any better than a sweep in the Finals, they’ll need someone to contribute beyond LeBron and Kevin Love. Cleveland has plenty of guys that could step up and fill that role. JR Smith, Jeff Green, Jordan Clarkson and the oft-injured (even that feels like an understatement) Rodney Hood are all worthy contenders. Surely, Cleveland would be happy if any one of those guys showed up and gave LeBron and Love a break and at least kept the Cavs afloat when the stars rest.
Hill, despite drastically underperforming and finding himself dealing with nagging injuries, is likely the Cavalier best equipped to be a third shot creator. Just last season, he was a vital piece of the Utah Jazz’s playoff run. He was a massive positive on the offensive end, ably running pick-and-roll action and contributing relatively efficient scoring — he averaged 15.6 points per game with a true shooting percentage at 56.4.
Defensively, Hill has the size and speed to slow down the pesky guards the Cavs will have to beat. He’s been easy to exploit on that end this season, however, with his mind wandering and his effort waning. In fact, Hill is well past the defensive peak he reached a few years ago with the Indiana Pacers. But if he can even get back to last season’s passable defense, Hill will be key for the Cavs, who could surely use a defensive asset after years of coping with the shoulder shrug that is trying to play pick-and-roll defense with two wet paper towels in Love and Kyrie Irving.
Toronto Raptors: Pascal Siakam
To be honest, everyone knows Toronto’s only chance of beating Cleveland is finally finding some way to slow down LeBron. Given that the Raptors’ two star guards have absolutely no shot against LeBron, the player they throw at him is a clear pick to be their x-factor.
For much of the season, the obvious pick was OG Anunoby. Even though he’s a rookie, he’s got the frame and speed to at least look like he has a chance. Despite some signs of life in April, Anunoby has been mired in a months-long slump. The Raptors have increasingly turned away from Anunoby — he played less than 17 minutes per game in each of February and March — and realistically, it’s a big ask of a rookie to guard one of the three greatest players ever.
So why not turn instead to an über-athletic sophomore: Pascal Siakam. The Raptors’ defensive rating with Siakam on the floor this season has been 102.0, second-best on the team among its key rotation pieces, behind only Fred VanVleet. Siakam’s defensive RPM is 1.30, behind only Kyle Lowry among key Raptors.
Though Siakam is a bit more accustomed to guarding bigs and defending from the weak side, he’s 6-foot-9 and 230 pounds, along with being one of the fastest players in the NBA. He may not have the discipline to guard the crafty James, but at this point, Siakam may be the only Raptor with the physicality to even have a chance against LeBron.
In all likelihood, Siakam won’t succeed guarding LeBron, just like everyone else. But he gives the Raptors a chance. Siakam is strong, agile and moves his feet well. That’s already more than Toronto has had going for it in recent years of trying to contend with Cleveland — the rookie Siakam only played 10 minutes against the Cavaliers in the second round last year.
Playing Siakam enough to primarily match him up with LeBron presents some problems for the Raptors offensively. Siakam is excellent at the rim, but he’s enough of a non-shooter that, when he’s on the floor with the shaky shooting Demar Derozan, the Raptors will have to play three excellent shooters to avoid spacing issues.
Siakam has mostly come off the bench and paired with Jakob Poeltl in the frontcourt this year, but Toronto’s best chance of running a sustainable offense out there is to pair him with Serge Ibaka. They’ve only played 176 minutes together, but the Raptors have hit on all cylinders in that time, for a 12.6 net rating. Ibaka can guard Kevin Love and also shoot well enough to keep defenses honest.
This pairing, to go along with Lowry, Derozan and likely VanVleet is Toronto’s best closing five against Cleveland. Whether head coach Dwane Casey sees that, and whether it’s actually good enough against playoff LeBron, will decide the fate of the Eastern Conference.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Jerami Grant
With the Thunder heading into the playoffs as the 4 seed, it’s still hard to eliminate them as a contender. With Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Steven Adams, the Thunder have a versatile, hungry core that can keep up with anyone on its best days. Unfortunately, Oklahoma City has had trouble filling in players around that trio. Carmelo Anthony will likely occupy one of those spots, though he has been one of the most actively harmful players in the league all season.
Alex Abrines spaces the floor, but pairing him with Carmelo thoroughly dismantles the Thunder defense. Andre Roberson is injured. Raymond Felton is no more than a backup point guard. Terrance Ferguson is 25 pounds (approximately). Billy Donovan hasn’t really turned to Patrick Patterson to do much of anything. That leaves Corey Brewer, who Donovan coached in college and has often been the pick, and Jerami Grant, who could replace Anthony and pair with Abrines or just play with Melo.
Brewer, when he hits his threes, is a solid option, but he was injured in the Thunder’s final game and could be at a depleted state even if he can play. Either way, Grant is the option that gives the Thunder the highest ceiling and lets them contend with the Warriors and Rockets of the world. The Thunder can throw Grant on Draymond Green or PJ Tucker and rest easy knowing he won’t be easy to exploit. He’s athletic enough to switch screens and stay in front of guards in a bind. He can rotate off his guy quickly to block shots.
Grant occasionally matches that defensive skill and versatility with solid enough shooting that he doesn’t completely muddle up the floor. He hasn’t been a consistent shooter, only making 29.1 percent of his threes, but he’s put it together of late, making 37.5 percent since the All-Star break.
If he’s making enough threes to go along with his stellar conversion rate of 66.4 percent in the restricted area, Grant keeps the Thunder offense rolling while providing them the best defensive option they can hope for. Plus, he can be the roll man with Westbrook running pick-and-roll action and Adams in the dunker spot, a set that should work well with George and either Abrines or Anthony out there to space the floor.
Additionally, Grant is big enough to play some small-ball five when Adams sits. He’s not a great rebounder — he brings in only 10.9 percent of misses when he’s on the floor — but if Grant capitalizes on all his strengths in the playoffs (admittedly, a big ask), he gives Oklahoma City a real chance to upset some of the West’s titans. If he doesn’t, Oklahoma City will likely fall in the first round.
Houston Rockets: Clint Capela
Houston has established itself as a bonafide powerhouse this season. With a league-leading 65 wins, the Rockets seem to present the Golden State Warriors a more-than-worthy challenger. But some are concerned about the sustainability of Houston’s offense in the postseason.
The Rockets have relied on isolation plays more than most great offenses, leading the league in unassisted three-pointers, but they’ve been buoyed by a historically great isolation offense season from likely MVP James Harden. With referees sometimes more hesitant to blow the whistle in the postseason, however, Harden could see his historic efficiency drop a little bit, given the integral nature getting fouled plays in his game.
Aside from those concerns — which can only be answered in the playoffs and depending on the referees’ moods — Houston actually has fewer elite shooters than it may appear to at first glance, at least among lineups it’s most likely to utilize when matched up with Golden State. In this matchup, the Rockets will likely pair Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capela with two of Trevor Ariza, PJ Tucker and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (whose status is uncertain due to a dislocated shoulder).
While Ariza and Tucker have managed to hit 36.8 and 37.1 percent of their threes, respectively, they’re only elite-level threats from the corners.
This can be problematic for Houston, which sometimes relies on running pick-and-pop plays with Harden as the ball handler and Ariza, or especially Tucker, as the screener.
These plays generally result in the screener spotting up for a three at the wing and giving defenses the option to either switch or double Harden and leave the shooter open. But because Tucker isn’t a good enough shooter to stir much fear on the wing — along with being too limited as a ball handler and finisher to use a slightly more open lane to his advantage — Harden is easy to double in this situation. Oklahoma City used this strategy to great effect coming down the stretch of its 108–102 win over the Rockets on April 7, with Ariza setting screens for Harden before lingering by the arc, allowing his defender to roam near Harden and in the passing lanes.
With Harden bottled up, the Thunder were able to force turnovers or reckless drives to the rim. Against defenses like Oklahoma City’s and like Golden State’s, the Rockets simply can’t make this play the basis of their offense.
Instead, the Rockets are better off utilizing Capela as the screener in the actions and having him hard roll to the basket. This leaves defenses with a much bigger dilemma. With Harden handling the ball, defenses can’t afford to go under the screen. Doubling Harden leaves a lob to Capela just a pass or two away.
Switching a center on to Harden might be the only option, but it’s certainly not an enticing one, with Harden consistently draining step-back threes all year long and with more than enough juice as a ball-handler to break some ankles.
With a big on Harden or his primary defender at a disadvantage after going over the screen, the likely MVP should be able to get into the lane quite easily, collapsing the defense. Opposing defenders will abandon Tucker, Ariza and Mbah a Moute (who’s made 36.4 percent of his threes this season) to try to stop Harden at the rim. But, surrounding a Capela pick-and-roll, Houston can easily plant these shooters in the corners where they’re money.
Capela’s competence as a screener and his aggression as a roll man and finisher are what open all these options up for Houston in the postseason — and they can basically do all those same things with Chris Paul as the primary ball handler instead of Harden.
The Rockets will be relying on Capela to stay consistent in these areas after making 69.3 percent of his shots in the restricted area this season. Additionally, Houston’s title hopes will rely heavily on Capela’s ability to deter and block shots at the rim. If he’s able to keep the Rockets’ backline steady, he gives Houston the option to turn more heavily to the explosive Eric Gordon — a lesser defender than the other three — late in most games. Capela’s proficiency at protecting the rim gives Houston the option to play Gordon without worrying about the defense completely falling apart as long as the three-point marksman can send opposing ballhandlers to his strong help defender.
Golden State Warriors: Andre Iguodala
For the first time since adding Kevin Durant to a 73-win team, the Warriors truly look vulnerable. They finished the season flat and slow, winning only seven of their final 17 games. With Stephen Curry likely to miss at least part of the first round, if not some of the second round as well, the defending champions seem beatable.
But are they actually? Without Curry, Golden State is short on shooters, but it does still have Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson to go along with a defense that should be impenetrable. Even with three All-Stars playing, the Warriors’ offense has struggled without Curry.
The keys to holding that defense together and stopping the offense from imploding are Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala. Both have had off years, with Green’s effort seeming to wane on both ends and Iguodala turning into a non-factor offensively.
With Green young enough and hungry enough that we can expect him to turn it up, the 34-year-old Iguodala becomes the Warriors’ x-factor.
In early rounds, without Curry playing, Iguodala’s ball-handling and passing prowess will be crucial. If he can make defenses pay for leaving him open, it will go a long way towards freeing up the floor for the rest of the Warriors. Iguodala might be even more important for Golden State in later rounds of the postseason.
Against Houston, the Warriors would love to have Iguodala on the court to guard Harden as much as possible. In the four games Iguodala played against Harden last season (they never played in the same game this year), he shut down the presumptive MVP.
Here are Harden’s stats with and without Iguodala on the court in the 2016–17 season:
Iguodala’s combination of strength and discipline in avoiding fouls makes him the ideal player to check Harden. With the 2015 Finals MVP on the court, the Warriors can put Klay Thompson on Chris Paul, let Steph Curry guard a shooter and play their Death Lineup — potentially playing Capela off the floor. But if Iguodala can’t get his offense back to a manageable place, the Warriors will be much easier to guard. Houston can focus all its energy on Curry, Thompson and Durant, while muddling up the lane by having Capela ostensibly guard Iguodala but really just playing free safety.
This year’s NBA Champion is probably going to be the winner of that eventual Houston-Golden State series, and the defending champions’ become almost unbeatable if Iguodala plays like he has in the past. If not?
