“Three Billboards” winning Best Picture would be the latest in a long line of Oscar missteps this decade

As Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri racks up just about every single precursor for the Best Picture Oscar that it’s nominated for, it has set itself up as the betting favorite to win the big prize. While Get Out seems to be gaining momentum and would be a worthy winner, the race is basically a toss-up between that and Three Billboards, with Shape of Water slowly falling back and Dunkirk looming as a dark horse.

If Three Billboards does indeed prevail, despite its questionable — at best — racial politics and a terrible flashback scene, it will be far from alone among undeserving Oscar winners since 2010. Here are some of the winners that have aged the worst.

(Note: To be clear, I focused on awards I consider to be especially egregious. I only considered award winners starting with the 83rd Academy Awards, when The King’s Speech won. The year listed next to the winner will be the year the films came out, not when the Oscars took place. Additionally, I only considered winners in the directing, picture, screenplay and acting categories. Finally, snubs can be from films that weren’t even nominated.)

2010: The King’s Speech wins Best Picture and Tom Hooper wins Best Director

The King’s Speech is fine. In fact, it might be the best film of its oh-so-specific genre: biopics about great, 20th-century Brits. I loved it when I first saw it, but considering I was 13 at the time, that’s probably more about that scene where Colin Firth curses a ton, than the film’s actual quality.

But this is more about what didn’t win than about what did. The Social Network is, without a doubt, one of the best films of the decade. The very Aaron Sorkin take on Facebook’s origin story is an excellent character study, providing Jesse Eisenberg the perfect script for his fast-talking, high strung speech. Sorkin’s script is risky, but David Fincher’s direction executes it perfectly. The combination of their work results in multifaceted characters, teeming with insecurity, indignation and an aggressive desire to stick it to doubters.

The Social Network also spawned some of the most rewatchable scenes of its year, including Sean Parker (a surprisingly game Justin Timberlake) in the club shaping Silicon Valley startup bro culture for years to come. Even better, though, is Eduardo Saverin (Andrew Garfield) flipping the bird to Mark Zuckerberg (Eisenberg) and Prada, all in one fell swoop.

The Social Network deserved that year’s Best Picture. It earned it. Fincher should have won Best Director, though Christopher Nolan would have been a worthy contender as well, for his masterfully crafted and designed Inception.

For fun, here’s what else they got wrong but not that wrong:

• Eisenberg was phenomenal, as was Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine. Either one would be a better choice than Firth for the Best Actor prize, but I’m not about to raise too much of a stink because I love Firth.
• Mila Kunis’ performance in Black Swan has aged better than Melissa Leo’s showing in The Fighter.
• Finally, Inception and The Kids Are All Right were buoyed by slightly better original screenplays than The King’s Speech but, again, it would be close in a revote.

2011: The Artist wins best picture, Meryl Streep (Iron Lady) wins Best Actress, Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) wins Best Original Screenplay

WOODY ALLEN WON AN OSCAR! THIS DECADE! Rather than awarding a sexual predator for a solid film, the academy could’ve set a precedent and awarded the year’s best film by giving Asghar Farhadi’s humanistic A Separation the prize.

As for The Artist, I’ll admit, I’m biased. I refused to watch this film for years because I knew it would win Best Picture and I perceived that to be purely based on the gimmick of it being silent. Now that I have seen it, I still think that’s true, but I’ll at least admit it was a good movie. However, that is not a Best Picture-caliber film. Again, the worthiest contender is Farhadi’s A Separation. Farhadi’s exploration of Iranian society, morality and objectivity is incredibly well-done and likely would have won with a less subtitle-averse voting body. Drive, Beginners, Rise of the Planet of the Apes and Shame were all better than The Artist as well.

Finally, Meryl Streep is the greatest living actress, but her turn in Iron Lady is not her best work. It serves as a worthy impression of Margaret Thatcher, but even the best impression work is really not as impressive as Viola Davis was in her powerful yet subtle and raw turn elevating a weak film in The Help. She’s forced to be polite but her eyes don’t hide the resentful, anger behind the facade.

Here’s what else they got wrong but not that wrong:

• Jean Dujardin was excellent in The Artist, portraying the right amount of charm and silliness. But Michael Fassbender goes far beyond that in Shame, a film that may have been too much for the Academy. George Clooney’s turn in The Descendants shows the star at his best, mastering cheekiness, grief and solidity. Either of the two would have been more worthy Best Actor winners.

2012: Argo wins Best Picture, Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) wins Best Supporting Actor, Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) wins Best Actress

It feels fitting that Argo would come up just one year after A Separation. Oscar voters who once seemed keen on recognizing a truthful look at Iran, awarding Farhadi’s film Best Foreign Film, quickly changed their tune a year later. As you can probably guess from a film that mistakes the Farsi words for hello and goodbye, Argo doesn’t depict its Iranian setting and characters as much more than one-dimensionally evil and barbaric. Aside from that, Argo is a film more fitting of TNT Saturday afternoons than it is of winning an Oscar. Life of Pi, The Master, Rust and Bone, Moonrise Kingdom, Amour and Lincoln would all have been more worthy.

Christoph Waltz won two Best Supporting Actor Oscars for playing similar characters in Quentin Tarantino films. In Inglourious Basterds, he’s a revelation and, truthfully, really scary. But in Django Unchained, Waltz feels like a caricature of himself. He’s fine, but his is not even the best supporting turn in the movie. That honor belongs to either Leonardo DiCaprio or Samuel L. Jackson. But none of them were rightful winners for Best Supporting Actor.

There’s no question that the late, great Philip Seymour Hoffman put forth easily the best supporting turn of the year in The Master. In fact, his is probably the best supporting acting performance of the decade. His Lancaster Dodd portrayal is funny, angry, commanding, self-obsessed and creepy. He feels at once like a hacky charlatan and the next like a caring father-figure. His obsession with being needed is palpable — it’s easy to see oneself being convinced by him. Some people sell used cars, Dodd sells a lifestyle.

Hollywood was eager to establish a new queen and give Jennifer Lawrence an Oscar. But her performance in Silver Linings Playbook is just not a standout. Instead, Jessica Chastain deserved the trophy for Zero Dark Thirty. Chastain was incredible, playing both the eye of the storm and its winds. Her face gives us a grasp of the tension, her delivery a sense of the stakes. Robbing her of an Oscar was a big miss in a year where the Academy might have been better off blindfolded and throwing darts at a list of names to pick winners.

Here’s what else they got wrong but not that wrong:

• Congrats, Quentin. You wrote some nice quips, but come on. Paul Thomas Anderson’s unique script for The Master or Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola’s charming and funny script for Moonrise Kingdom were both more deserving than Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained.
• It feels blasphemous to ever argue Daniel Day-Lewis wasn’t worthy of an Oscar. He’s just about perfect in Lincoln, but he was overshadowed that year by Joaquin Phoenix’s revelatory turn in The Master. Phoenix bounced off Hoffman perfectly, and the two made movie magic.

• I’ve made no effort to hide my love for The Master. Paul Thomas Anderson directed that film while referencing cinematic greats and without letting it slip into melodrama. Ang Lee’s Life of Pi was a technical marvel, however, so I can’t blame the Academy too much for this one.
• Argo’s script isn’t very good. In fact, none of the nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay are very good, but Lincoln would be much more deserving here.

2013: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) wins Best Actor

The Academy had itself a pretty solid year here, and I feel bad pouring water on the McConaissance, but there were three performances that year that stood above the rest. Leonardo DiCaprio really bought into the loathsome character thing as Jordan Belfort in The Wolf of Wall Street. He’s crazed, obsessed, cocky and DiCaprio masters the art of being fake charming.

Michael B. Jordan played the late Oscar Grant, who was killed by BART police in 2009, in the phenomenal Fruitvale Station. Jordan’s performance is wondrously lived-in, providing us the portrait of a complicated, sometimes immovable man with a difficult life trying to get back on track and looking for a chance.

But the best performance that year came from Chiwetel Ejiofor as Solomon Northup in 12 Years a Slave. He’s Shakespearean-trained and it shows, as Ejiofor’s delivery is never lacking for power, passion and presence. He commands the camera.

Ejiofor shows us Northup’s pain and his horror. While Shakespearean actors thrive on speech and interactions, Ejiofor controls silence as well. His posture tells us more than words can. His eyes are like a cheat code for an actor, so expressive they force empathy out of the audience.

Here’s what else they got wrong but not that wrong:

• Special shoutout to the Academy for getting the eight major awards mostly right. I just want to use this space to argue that Frozen should not have won Best Animated Feature. Its win is understandable. Anna and Elsa are great. But Hayao Miyazaki’s The Wind Rises is a level above. The stunningly animated, humanistic tale tells the story of genius and its decline, beauty and its disintegration. Miyazaki’s bittersweet reflections make for an emotional watch.

2014: The Imitation Game wins Best Adapted Screenplay

I’ve written before about how terrible and generic The Imitation Game is. It takes an interesting biopic subject in Alan Turing and makes a film that’s drivel not even worthy of a TV movie. Familiar themes are touched on in drab, familiar ways. The Academy was not lacking for better options.

Gillian Flynn adapted her own novel into the script for that year’s best thriller, Gone Girl. Paul Thomas Anderson ably adapted the work of an impossible-to-adapt author in Thomas Pynchon for Inherent Vice. The most deserving winner would have been Whiplash, Damien Chazelle’s story about the obsession to be great and the questions regarding abusive teaching methods.

Here’s what else they got wrong but not that wrong:

• Eddie Redmayne was nowhere near as undeserving a winner as The Imitation Game. His emotional, physically transformative performance is great. But Michael Keaton’s anxious, lived-in turn in Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) was even better. Keaton plays Riggan Thomson’s desperate clawing to regain glory with pain, self-doubt and a wry smile. Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler) and Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel) also deserve mentions, with the former delivering a brilliant take on intense obsession and the latter giving us his most hilarious performance by far.
• Julianne Moore deserved to win Best Actress, but what the Academy got wrong was not giving her an Oscar sooner. She’s one of the best actresses in the world and has been for literal decades. Stop waiting so long to give people their awards.

2015: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant) wins Best Actor

It’s a good thing that Leonardo DiCaprio has an Oscar. He’s been responsible for some of the most iconic performances in the industry since his turn in What’s Eating Gilbert Grape in 1993. But winning for this role? That’s disappointing. DiCaprio puts forth a raw, physical display that was clearly accompanied by a high degree of difficulty. But this is not Leo at his best. And it was not the best lead acting performance of the year.

No, that honor is Abraham Attah’s. Attah plays Agu, a child soldier with a devastating past, in Beasts of No Nation. Attah is playful as Agu, imbuing him with charisma and humor when it’s called for. Then, when playing drama and tragedy, Attah is again pitch perfect, his face seeming to say it all. When he’s tasked with executing a man, Attah shows us Agu’s life flashing before his eyes, then his fear, his acceptance and, finally, his rage.

Here’s what else they got wrong but not that wrong:

• Alejandro González Iñárritu won Best Director for the second consecutive year at these Academy Awards after winning for Birdman. In The Revenant, he, like Leo, was partially rewarded due to the immense degree of difficulty of shooting the film how he did. But this should have been George Miller’s prize. His Mad Max: Fury Road is a technical marvel. Miller made the best action film of the last 20 years. Miller’s direction makes the film a visual, incredibly paced masterpiece with no peers that year.
• Alicia Vikander won Best Supporting Actress for her role in The Danish Girl. I think she may have deserved it just as much for playing Ava in Ex Machina but that seems like pointless nitpicking at this point.
• Mark Rylance was great in Bridge of Spies, which is only as good as it was because of Rylance’s intense performance. He won Best Supporting Actor for the role and, to be honest, he probably deserved it. I want to draw attention, however, to a man who wasn’t even nominated. Oscar Isaac’s supporting performance in Ex Machina deserves recognition. He so overwhelms with his charm that it’s easy to ignore the creepy man that lurks beneath the surface. Isaac’s performance gives us a mix of some famous fictional scientists, Dr. Frankenstein and Dr. Jekyll. He’s an ambitious, egotistical man trying to play God. But his smile alone harkens back to the duality of man as it applies to Dr. Jekyll. Plus, perhaps more importantly than all of that, Isaac gave us this:

Never forget.

2016: Casey Affleck wins Best Actor (Manchester by the Sea)

I’m not going to pretend that I was happy when Casey Affleck won Best Actor. He was great in Manchester by the Sea. No one has denied that. But Affleck has been accused of sexual harassment. Choosing to give Hollywood’s biggest prizes to people credibly accused of such heinous things is incredibly damaging to survivors of sexual violence. In a year where Denzel Washington was incredible in Fences, the Academy had an easy out. It could have done the right thing — ignoring Affleck completely — while awarding a powerful performance at least equal to the one that won. It was a big missed opportunity by the Academy (and Denzel wasn’t shy about showing how he felt).

My other qualm is admittedly a much smaller one: if Viola Davis was in the lead actress role for Fences like she should have been, all of these races would be different. Davis would be my pick for Best Actress, ahead of a wonderful Emma Stone, while I’d elevate Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea) up to Best Supporting Actress. As things stand though, the Academy got it right.

Here’s what else they got wrong but not that wrong:

• So, Moonlight is obviously incredible. It was the best of the nominated films for Best Picture. It’s one of the most impactful, beautiful films of the decade. Saying anything deserved to beat it legitimately feels dirty. But if Ezra Edelman’s expansive, insightful, grand O.J.: Made in America couldn’t win Best Picture, or even get nominated, what’s the point of having documentaries be eligible for the night’s biggest prize? Made in America is, at the very least, the best documentary of the 21st century. To me, it was the best film of its year. But I know it’s beyond a pipe dream expecting it to have won.

Now, a simple 3,000 (or so) words into the Oscars’ biggest missteps of the decade, a few trends emerged. First, the Academy got the Best Actor award wrong every single time it could. Second, spelling McConaissance correctly in just one attempt might be the best thing I’ve ever done. Third, the Academy seems to be slowly improving at picking a Best Picture.

I hope that final trend continues and Get Out keeps the momentum going to win (or there’s some sort of miracle vote that leads to a win for Lady Bird). If not, and Three Billboards really prevails, I guess I’ll have to update this piece.