Where do the San Antonio Spurs stand if Kawhi Leonard really doesn’t come back?
On Wednesday, San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich said he’d “be surprised if (Kawhi Leonard) returns this season.” What could that mean for the Spurs’ playoff chances? This probably kicks them out of title contention, but can they get to the second round? Is it possible they’ll actually miss the playoffs?
This could all be a moot point if Leonard ends up coming back. Let’s be real, it wouldn’t be shocking for Popovich to say “I’ve been surprised before!” at an April press conference as Leonard puts up 25 and 10.
But let’s assume Popovich is telling the truth and the Spurs really do have to continue without Leonard.
How good have the Spurs been without Kawhi?
The Spurs have been surprisingly good without their superstar. At 35–24, San Antonio is in third place in the West, though the Spurs are virtually tied with the fourth-place Minnesota Timberwolves. In the tightly packed 2018 Western Conference, however, that leaves the Spurs only 3.5 games ahead of the ninth-place LA Clippers with 23 games to go.
Considering they’ve done much of that damage without Leonard (only nine games played), the Spurs likely aren’t in for some sudden, massive drop-off in play. They’re 30–20 without Leonard and in 2,622 minutes played without him, the Spurs have amassed a positive 3.0 net rating which would tie them with Minnesota for fourth in the West.
Without Leonard, the Spurs’ defense has maintained its elite play from seasons past. The Popovich system has led the team to the league’s second-best defensive rating. On offense, however, they’ve have had to rely on LaMarcus Aldridge more than ever before. He’s played in 54 of their 59 games and leads the team in minutes per game by a substantial margin with 33.9. His usage rate is the highest it’s been since he joined the Spurs in 2015 and he’s managed to score as efficiently as ever.
Even with Aldridge playing at essentially his peak level, the Spurs’ 105.1 offensive rating puts them 16th in the league. As one of the most three-point averse teams in the league (28th-most attempts per game), San Antonio relies heavily on taking advantage of opposing defenses’ willingness to give up mid-range jumpers. Without Leonard, one of the league’s premiere mid-range marksmen, the Spurs haven’t been able to capitalize off their proverbial zig to the league’s zag. In 2016–17, with Leonard healthy for the most part until he got Pachulia’d in the playoffs, the Spurs’ offense excelled. They were seventh in offensive rating to go along with the league’s best defense.
That they’ve managed to even be this successful so far despite an offense that’s actively trying to Freddy Krueger its way into Daryl Morey’s nightmares — San Antonio is also near the bottom of the league in free throw rate — is a testament to Popovich’s coaching prowess. If Leonard doesn’t return, the Spurs likely can’t bank on getting their offense back to a title-contending level. With that average offense and an elite defense, the Spurs have themselves firmly in tier two of the Western Conference, along with the Thunder and the Timberwolves.
Verdict: Fourth-best team in the West (behind Golden State, Houston and Oklahoma City)
How will they fare in the rest of regular season?
FiveThirtyEight’s CARM-Elo ratings give the Spurs an 84 percent chance of making the playoffs and project that San Antonio will tie the Thunder for fourth in the West with a 47–35 record.
While the Spurs are somehow barely ahead of the 9th spot in the West, it would take a lot to knock them out of the playoffs. Their defense, along with a home-heavy schedule the rest of the way — 13 of their final 23 will be in San Antonio — will likely keep the Spurs in the running for the four seed, as FiveThirtyEight projects.
San Antonio’s main objectives needs to be remaining relatively healthy the rest of the way to avoid a disastrous fall out of the playoffs. While the Spurs are one of the best five teams in the West, they are only projected to finish three games ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans, which FiveThirtyEight projects will be the nine seed. A key injury could cost San Antonio, especially given some of the titans left on its schedule: two games against Golden State, two against Houston, one against Cleveland, two against Oklahoma City and one against Minnesota.
If San Antonio can win even three of those eight games, it’ll be in great position to lock up a spot in the four-five matchup in the West. Unfortunately for the Spurs, it’d take some disappointing play out of Oklahoma City and Minnesota the rest of the way to give the Spurs a realistic shot of maintaining the third spot in the West.
Prediction: San Antonio will finish fifth in the West
What are their chances in the postseason?
Unfortunately for the Spurs, they’re pretty much dead in the water without Leonard. If they finish fifth as I’m predicting, they’ll face either Minnesota or Oklahoma City with a potential game seven on the road. If they make it past that matchup, the Spurs have no shot against the Warriors or Rockets.
The Spurs’ net rating without Leonard on the court this season is just a bit behind the Thunder’s and virtually the same as the Timberwolves’. But much of San Antonio’s success thus far has come due to their impressive depth. San Antonio’s bench units have had great success on the season, which is great for many reasons. For one, Popovich’s extensive utilization of his bench helps the Spurs have players ready to step up if a starter gets hurt.
Additionally, the Spurs are able keep their starters relatively fresh. They have 12 players who have played in more than 30 games and average at least 9.5 minutes per game this season. Aldridge is the only player averaging more than 30 minutes per game. This has served them well without Leonard, as San Antonio lacks the top-end talent that its likely opponents boast. Aldridge has been excellent this season and will very likely earn a spot on one of the All-NBA teams. Beyond him, however, the Spurs are deeply lacking in All-Star caliber talent. Their second-best player might be Danny Green.
The Timberwolves have Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns. The Thunder boast Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Steven Adams. In the postseason, when most teams shorten their rotation, top-end talent usually swings series. Starters and key bench players get more run, as most teams whittle down to 8-man rotations. For San Antonio, that could spell trouble. The bench can beat run-of-the mill teams during the regular season, but if Popovich doesn’t cut their minutes, they’ll be running into some starter-heavy opposing lineups. San Antonio’s starters, meanwhile, are deeply flawed and have barely played together.
For reference, the Timberwolves’ starting lineup has spent 1,067 minutes together, easily the most of any lineup in the NBA (side note: THIBSSSS). They’ve managed to establish a rapport that should carry over to the postseason and have dominated opponents to the tune of a positive 8.2 net rating. Sub Tyus Jones and his solid shooting in for Jeff Teague, by the way, and Minnesota’s net rating is positive 24.3, but that’s a column for another day.
San Antonio’s current starting lineup with Aldridge, Pau Gasol, Kyle Anderson, Danny Green and Dejounte Murray has played 147 minutes all season. In that time, the Spurs’ offense has sputtered its way to a terrible 96.9 offensive rating and a -8.7 net rating. Sub Patty Mills in for Murray — a lineup that’s played a team-high 155 minutes — and the Spurs have excelled with a positive 10.1 net rating.
This lineup’s success compared to the one with Murray points to a notable factor for the Spurs going forward. With Murray in, San Antonio essentially has two capable shooters on the court in Gasol and Green. This has seriously clogged up the Spurs’ driving lanes. San Antonio has countered by throwing even more on Aldridge’s shoulders. They’ll post up Aldridge on one side of the floor, throw Murray under the basket where he can’t be left open, put Anderson in the opposite corner and leave Gasol and Green on the perimeter as shooters the defense isn’t comfortable leaving open.
Aldridge has generally utilized a turnaround jumper in these situations. If he converts at a high rate, the lineup with Murray at point has a chance in the playoffs. But Aldridge has only 39.7 percent of 131 turnaround jump shots this season. At the rate, the lineup is untenable.
While the same lineup has been much more successful with Mills in Murray’s spot, that lineup presents problems of its own. Mills might be the Spurs’ best shooter, but his off-the-bounce game is limited. In fact, that lineup may have better spacing and more open driving lanes, but Anderson is the closest it comes to having an effective slasher. Hint: title contenders rely on players much better than someone literally nicknamed “Slow-Mo” to drive and kick.
The greatest benefit of that lineup, then, is it lets Gasol operate closer to the basket, where he has long thrived. That’s worked in the regular season, but he may be too slow to play much in the playoffs, especially if the Spurs play Oklahoma City.
With lineups that don’t really fit together and a lack of top-end talent, the Spurs are likely to be in trouble. They match up pretty terribly with Oklahoma City’s athletic, talented squad. The Thunder have managed to dominate the offensive boards while also putting together an impressive defense.
The Spurs have a much better chance if they end up playing Minnesota. The Timberwolves have a talented starting lineup, but their style of isolation-heavy play (24th in assist rate) can be easier to stop in the playoffs. That’s especially true if Andrew Wiggins, Jamal Crawford and Teague continue taking shots at incredibly high rates with incredibly mediocre efficiency. But facing Towns and a hungry Butler, the Spurs would still be in trouble.
Prediction: San Antonio loses in five to Oklahoma City (or to Minnesota in six) in round one
If Leonard really does miss the remainder of the season, it’ll be a wasted year for the Spurs who would unfortunately be squandering an elite season from Aldridge. If they had the Leonard of last season, the Spurs could truly contend with Golden State and Houston. But, without him, they’re stuck hoping Wiggins, Crawford and Teague shoot the Timberwolves out of the first round.
