Analyzing the World Cup Draw Using Elo Rankings
The World Cup draw has been announced, and it’s time to analyze the groups. This article will take a look at various aspects of the draw using Elo rankings. Elo rankings, which are used most famously to rate the world’s top chess players, are generally considered to be a better estimate of a team’s strength than the official rankings put out by FIFA. Elo ratings take into account factors such as home field advantage and goal difference, which are ignored by FIFA.
More importantly, however, FIFA rankings are calculated based on an average points per match system. Since more points are given for qualification and tournament games than for friendlies, this means that playing lots of friendlies will hurt a team’s average points per match, and a team can shoot up the rankings simply by refusing to schedule friendlies. Poland, for example, exploited that loophole, scheduling very few friendlies, allowing them to achieve a high enough FIFA ranking to put themselves into Pot 1 for the draw, earning them an easier group, while stronger teams such as Spain and England found themselves in Pot 2. Elo rankings shift a team up or down after every match, and don’t rely on averaging anything, so Elo more accurately rates Poland as the 18th-best team in the world. Elo’s greater accuracy makes it a better foundation for the analysis that follows.
Strongest Group
Group E, with Brazil (first), Switzerland (13th), Serbia (23rd), and Costa Rica (30th), has an average Elo ranking of 17.0, narrowly edging out Group C, which contains France (fifth), Peru (12th), Denmark (19th), Australia (33rd). Group C contains the strongest third-best team, so could make some claim as the group of death. Australia certainly will feel unlucky to have to face three top-twenty sides. France, while certainly the favorite in Group C, will be properly tested at least against Peru and Denmark, and Australia is fairly strong for being the worst team in the group. But Group E takes the title as the strongest group through a combination of having four top-thirty teams and having the top-ranked team in the world. It would be a shock to see Brazil fail to get out of the group, but Switzerland will have a fairly tough time claiming the second spot, as both Serbia and Costa Rica are strong enough to pull off an upset.
Weakest Group
Unlike the strongest group, this one is a blowout. Group A, with Uruguay (13th), Russia (45th), Egypt (48th), and Saudi Arabia (61st), comes in with an average Elo ranking of of 41.8, while the next worst group (G) has an average ranking of just 28.8. Group A was always going to be a relatively weak group, as Russia, as the host nation, automatically gets to be in Pot 1 along with the seven highest-ranked teams, even though it is one of the weakest teams in the tournament. But Russia got a far weaker group than they had any right to expect. Uruguay was just the fifth-best team from Pot 2, according to Elo, while Egypt was the second-worst in Pot 3, and Saudi Arabia is the worst in the entire tournament. It all adds up to Russia being favored to go through to the second round despite being the fifth-worst team in the tournament. It certainly pays to be the host.
Easiest Draw for a Favorite
Staying in Group A, Uruguay has the easiest path out of any team to advance to the knockout stages. Uruguay outranks their opponents by an average of 35.3 places in the Elo rankings. As the 13th-best team in the world, they are the weakest favorite in any group, but by virtue of drawing Russia from Pot 1 and two very weak teams from Pots 3 and 4, they should expect to waltz their way into the second round. The second-easiest path belongs to England in Group G, who outrank their opponents by an average of 29 places. England, who ranks seventh, will have a tough game against ninth-ranked Belgium, but games against 47th-ranked Panama and 52nd-ranked Tunisia should make for a smooth road to the second round.
Toughest Draw for a Favorite
Colombia, the eighth-ranked team in the world according to Elo, is the second-weakest group favorite, and has the toughest draw out of all the favorites. Colombia outranks their Group H opponents by an average of just 15.3 spots. Colombia face 18th-ranked Poland, who was actually the team drawn from Pot 1 in this group, 24th-ranked Senegal, and 28th-ranked Japan. Colombia should be the favorite in all three matches, but none of those games are anything close to automatic.
Easiest Draw for an Underdog
Staying in Group H, the easiest draw for any underdog belongs to Japan. Japan is outranked by their opponents by a mere 11.3 spots. Japan is the strongest lowest-ranked team in any group, and faces an unremarkable pair of favorites in Colombia and Poland. In any group other than A or H, Colombia and Poland would be the second- and third-best teams, but in Group H they are the two best. It all adds up to Group H being the most wide open group in the tournament.
Toughest Draw for an Underdog
Morocco sits an average of 34.7 spots behind its Group B opponents. Ranked 44th, Morocco was the third-worst team in Pot 4. They are drawn with the third-best team from Pot 3, 21st-ranked Iran. But the real heavy hitters in the group are third-ranked Spain and fourth-ranked Portugal, the last two European champions. Both Spain and Portugal will expect to qualify easily and have legitimate shots at winning the entire competition. It would be quite the story if Morocco can qualify over either of them.
Best Battle for First
Third-ranked Spain and fourth-ranked Portugal will play for what will likely be the top spot in Group B in the group’s opening match. The two teams can consider themselves unlucky to have been drawn together, though it should make for an excellent game for fans. The loser will likely have to play Uruguay in the second round, while the winner will get to play one of Russia, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia. Honorable mention in this category goes to the battle between seventh-ranked England and ninth-ranked Belgium in the final game in Group G. Assuming neither country slips up against Tunisia or Panama, the winner of that game should claim the top spot in the group.
Best Battle for Second
Second-ranked Germany should have little trouble getting out of Group F, but the second spot in the group looks up for grabs. 37th-ranked South Korea can’t be counted out entirely, but the battle for the second spot will likely come down to the final game between 17th-ranked Mexico and 20th-ranked Sweden. The two teams are separated by just three spots, and should make for an excellent high-stakes matchup. Honorable mention in this category goes to the battle between 16th-ranked Croatia and 21st-ranked Iceland in Group D. Sixth-ranked Argentina should be clear favorites, and 41st-ranked Nigeria look like clear outsiders based on their ranking. Croatia and Iceland played each other in qualifying, each winning at home. Whoever wins their third matchup this cycle will likely secure a spot in the knockout round.
