Examining the Phillies’ Rotation Options
The Phillies might not be all that bad in 2018. They have young hitters who could be about to break out (Scott Kingery) and more who already have (Rhys Hoskins). They have a collection of solid arms at the back of the bullpen after adding Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system pegs the team for a 78–84 record. That’s far from a playoff favorite, but it’s potentially a few breakouts and some good luck away from playing meaningful baseball in September.
To have any chance of that happening, though, the Phillies will need some improved performances from their starting rotation. Of the eight pitchers who started at least 10 games for the club, only one had an ERA lower than 4.25, and only one produced a fWAR total of at least two wins (the mark typically used to denote an average player). This article will take a quick look at each of the Phillies’ returning starters, examining their underlying stats to see who projects as a viable rotation member going forward. For reference, the the league average strikeout, walk, and groundball rates in 2017 were 21.6%, 8.5%, and 44.1%, respectively. Options are ranked by FanGraphs’ projected 2018 ERA.
1. Aaron Nola. 2017 stats: 3.54 ERA; 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, 49.8% groundball rate; 3.38 xFIP*. Projected 2018 ERA: 3.58.
*xFIP estimates the ERA a pitcher “deserved” to have based on his strikeout, walk, and groundball rates. It predicts future ERA better than ERA itself does. Pitchers with extreme profiles can regularly outperform or underperform their xFIP, but generally, a significant difference between the two in one season is due to fluky batted ball luck, home run per fly ball luck, or sequencing.
Still just 24 years old, Nola has established himself as one of the game’s best starting pitchers. He isn’t elite in any one area, but his combination of solidly above-average strikeout, walk, and groundball rates saw him rank 13th in the league in fWAR, sandwiched between Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander and just 0.3 wins behind Clayton Kershaw. His killer curveball, thrown from his unconventional release point, is a true knockout pitch, ranking as the second-best curve in the game last year according to FanGraphs’ pitch values. There’s little reason to believe he’ll be anything less than a borderline ace this year as long as he remains healthy — his 168 innings pitched last year represent his career high.
2. Vince Velasquez. 2017 stats: 5.13 ERA; 21.6% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate, 42.5% groundball rate; 4.59 xFIP. Projected 2018 ERA: 4.50.
Velasquez wasn’t good last year, though he wasn’t quite as bad as he ERA said he was. His strikeout rate fell from a quite strong 27.6% in 2016 to a league-average 21.6% last year, not enough to cover for worse than average walk and groundball rates. He’s not far from being a third starter, though, and could get there with just a small increase in strikeouts and decrease in walks — see Drew Pomeranz, whose rate stats are only slightly better than Velasquez’s (23.5% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate, 43.2% groundball rate). Unfortunately, he might be best served as a reliever long-term, as he’s never pitched more than 136 innings as a professional and was limited by injuries to just 72 major-league innings last year.
3. Nick Pivetta. 2017 stats: 6.02 ERA; 24.0% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, 43.8% groundball rate; 4.26 xFIP. Projected 2018 ERA: 4.54.
It may be a surprise to see Pivetta projected as the Phillies’ third-best starter after his ugly 6.02 ERA, but take a look at his rate stats. He had slightly worse than average walk and groundball rates but an above-average strikeout rate, with xFIP saying that he deserved a perfectly acceptable 4.26 ERA. You can survive as a starter with a few too many walks if you’re also striking out a fair number of hitters — see again Pomeranz’s stats cited above for an example of a pitcher who’s been able to carve out a successful career with a similar profile. He looks to be a solid bet to become a third or fourth starter and doesn’t have the same injury risk as Velasquez. Look for him to prove that he belongs in a major-league rotation this year.
4. Jerad Eickhoff. 2017 stats: 4.71 ERA; 20.5% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate, 37.6% groundball rate; 4.86 xFIP. Projected 2018 ERA: 4.74.
Eickhoff found success in the first two years of his career by being something of a command specialist. His strikeout and groundball rates remained low last year, but his walk rate spiked from an impressive 5.2% in 2016 to 9.2% in 2017. It’s hard to be anything more than a fifth starter if you’re worse than average in all three areas, though Eickhoff at least has some bounceback potential since he’s had success at the major-league level before. He also might be able to blame injuries for his lack of control last year, as he made two trips to the disabled list. The Phillies will need more from him this year if they want to be a competitive team.
5. Mark Leiter Jr. 2017 stats: 4.96 ERA; 21.3% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, 48.9% groundball rate; 4.19 xFIP. Projected 2018 ERA: 4.82.
Leiter didn’t put up a good ERA last year, but his underlying numbers suggested he was perfectly competent. He posted an average strikeout rate with better than average walk and groundball rates. He did throw about a third of his innings out of the bullpen, where pitchers often experience better results due to their stuff playing up over shorter outings. But his numbers look fairly similar regardless of how he was used, other than his walk rate, which more than doubled when he was used in a relief role. He doesn’t look anything like a frontline starter, but he edges out the pitchers lower on the list due to him actually being able to strike out major-league hitters.
6. Zach Eflin. 2017 stats: 6.16 ERA; 12.5% strikeout rate, 4.5% walk rate, 44.1% groundball rate; 5.21 xFIP. Projected 2018 ERA: 5.01.
Eflin’s fastball averaged a respectable 93.7 mph last season, but he put up stats that better fit a soft tosser. His walk rate would have ranked third-lowest among qualified starters (one spot behind Clayton Kershaw!) but his strikeout rate would have ranked second-lowest. His lack of walks may not have been purely the result of good command, though — it may just have been that his stuff was so hittable that he’d given up a hit before the count could get too deep. Hitters made contact on 85.2% of the pitches they swung at against Eflin, which would have ranked third-worst among qualified starters. Eflin probably deserves one more season to prove that he can start in the major leagues, as he’s still just 23 and could blame injuries for some of his struggles last year. He’ll need to do a lot better this season in order to keep a roster spot, though, since you can’t succeed at the big-league level if you can’t miss bats.
7. Ben Lively. 2017 stats: 4.26 ERA; 14.0% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, 38.2% groundball rate; 5.58 xFIP. Projected 2018 ERA: 5.15.
While Lively’s ERA was nearly two runs lower than Eflin’s in 2017, the underlying numbers were very similar. He also avoided walks and couldn’t miss bats, though he added to that a rather low groundball rate. Hitters made contact at a similarly high 84.7% rate against him. The only real positive for Lively is his slightly deceptive delivery, which is sometimes the sort of thing which allows a pitcher to generate weak contact and outperform his peripheral statistics. More likely, though, hitters will continue to tee off on him and he’ll be forced to battle for a roster spot as a long reliever.
8. Jake Thompson. 2017 stats: 3.88 ERA; 16.7% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate, 46.3% groundball rate; 5.54 xFIP. Projected 2018 ERA: 5.35.
One of the headliners of the Cole Hamels trade, Thompson put up a solid ERA in 46.1 innings for the Phillies last year, though the performance was almost certainly a mirage. He strikes out a few more batters than Eflin and Lively, but he was still well below the league average there. Combined with a poor walk rate, it’s not an impressive profile. Thompson is still just 24 and has time to improve but his minor-league numbers aren’t particularly promising. His strikeout (17.1%) and walk (8.9%) rates were hardly better at Triple-A Lehigh Valley last year. He doesn’t look like anything more than a long reliever going forward.
Free Agent Options
The above group sees the Phillies having, roughly, one borderline ace, two potential mid-rotation pieces, two backend starters, and three pitchers who haven’t demonstrated that they have any business starting. There’s a clear need for a number two or three starter to fit between Nola and the rest of the existing starters. Theoretically, one of the large group of mediocre starters could have a breakout season (most likely Velasquez or Pivetta, since it’s generally easier to improve control than to suddenly learn to miss bats) but it could be easier to find the solution on the free agent market.
Jake Arrieta is the best available pitcher. He won a Cy Young back in 2015, but pitched more like a number three starter last year, coming in just slightly better than average in all three rate stats (23.1% strikeout rate, 7.8% groundball rate, 45.1% groundball rate). In his age-32 season, it’s far more likely that he keeps sliding back towards being a backend starter than that he recaptures his 2015 form. Still, his projected 3.94 ERA is easily better than any Phillies starter not named Aaron Nola.
Three other free agent starters have projected ERAs which would make them the second-best member of the Phillies’ rotation: Alex Cobb (4.09), Lance Lynn (4.24), and Brett Anderson (4.41). All three are 30 years old and all three have significant recent injury histories. Even the best of them, Cobb, is closer to being a number four than a number two on a playoff team’s rotation, so none would be good long-term bets. If the Phillies want to compete, pursuing one of them (perhaps in addition to Arrieta) would be sensible, but leaving more innings for their developing young starters could be a smarter move.
