NFL Strength of Schedule Power Rankings, Week 13: Can the Vikings Win it All?
For the second straight week, the top team in the league lost. The Eagles loss to the Seahawks sends them down to fifth, allowing the Vikings to rise to the top. The Vikings right now project to hold home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs and then be the first team in NFL history to play in the Super Bowl in their home stadium. To get there, the Vikings will have to get past a tough field in the NFC, which contains five of the top seven teams. Meanwhile, in the AFC, no team looks likely to challenge the Patriots and Steelers for a spot in the AFC championship. 30 points separate the Steelers from the next best team in the conference, the Jaguars.
For last week’s rankings, click here. For an explanation of how these rankings are calculated, click here.
1. Minnesota Vikings (10–2): 56 points. Last week: 2nd, 45 pts. Remaining schedule: -12 pts (18th).
2. New England Patriots (10–2): 53 points. Last week: 3rd, 43 pts. Remaining schedule: 30 pts (11th).
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10–2): 51 points. Last week: 4th, 42 pts. Remaining schedule: -36 pts (24th).
4. New Orleans Saints (9–3): 50 points. Last week: 5th, 39 pts. Remaining schedule: -1 pt (16th).
5. Philadelphia Eagles (10–2): 43 points. Last week: 1st, 46 pts. Remaining schedule: -32 pts (23rd).
6. Los Angeles Rams (9–3): 37 points. Last week: 7th, 28 pts. Remaining schedule: 25 pts (12th).
7. Carolina Panthers (8–4): 32 points. Last week: 6th, 34 pts. Remaining schedule: 57 pts (4th).
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (8–4): 21 points. Last week: 9th, 15 pts. Remaining schedule: -41 pts (26th).
t9. Atlanta Falcons (7–5): 19 points. Last week: 8th, 20 pts. Remaining schedule: 108 pts (1st).
t9. Seattle Seahawks (8–4): 19 points. Last week: 13th, 7 pts. Remaining schedule: 37 pts (9th).
t9. Tennessee Titans (8–4): 19 points. Last week: 10th, 12 pts. Remaining schedule: -13 pts (19th).
12. Baltimore Ravens (7–5): 13 points. Last week: t15th, 4 pts. Remaining schedule: -88 pts (31st).
13. Green Bay Packers (6–6): 6 point. Last week: 17th, 1 pt. Remaining schedule: 14 pts (14th).
14. Detroit Lions (6–6): 5 points. Last week: 11th, 11 pts. Remaining schedule: -68 pts (30th).
15. Buffalo Bills (6–6): 2 points. Last week: 14th, 5 pts. Remaining schedule: -2 pts (17th).
16. Kansas City Chiefs (6–6): 1 point. Last week: 12th, 9 pts. Remaining schedule: -61 pts (29th).
17. Washington Redskins (5–7): -2 points. Last week: t15th, 4 pts. Remaining schedule: -119 pts (32nd).
t18. Dallas Cowboys (6–6): -6 points. Last week: 20th, -10 pts. Remaining schedule: -1 pt (15th).
t18. Oakland Raiders (6–6): -6 points. Last week: 19th, -9 pts. Remaining schedule: 31 pts (10th).
20. Los Angeles Chargers (6–6): -7 points. Last week: 18th, -7 pts. Remaining schedule: -22 pts (21st).
21. Miami Dolphins (5–7): -8 points. Last week: 22nd, -13 pts. Remaining schedule: 58 pts (3rd).
t22. Arizona Cardinals (5–7): -15 points. Last week: 21st, -11 pts. Remaining schedule: -21 pts (20th).
t22. New York Jets (5–7): -15 points. Last week: 27th, -20 pts. Remaining schedule: 56 pts (5th).
24. Cincinnati Bengals (5–7): -21 points. Last week: t25th, -17 pts. Remaining schedule: 45 pts (7th).
25. Houston Texans (4–8): -23 points. Last week: t25th, -17 pts. Remaining schedule: -23 pts (22nd).
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–8): -24 points. Last week: 23rd, -15 pts. Remaining schedule: 106 pts (2nd).
27. Chicago Bears (3–9): -29 points. Last week: 24th, -16 pts. Remaining schedule: -39 pts (25th).
28. Indianapolis Colts (3–9): -39 points. Last week: 29th, -33 pts. Remaining schedule: -48 pts (27th).
29. Denver Broncos (3–9): -40 points. Last week: 28th, -30 pts. Remaining schedule: -55 pts (28th).
30. San Francisco 49ers (2–10): -56 points. Last week: 31st, -54 pts. Remaining schedule: 54 pts (6th).
31. New York Giants (2–10): -57 points. Last week: 30th, -46 pts. Remaining schedule: 20 pts (13th)
32. Cleveland Browns (0–12): -79 points. Last week: 32nd, -67 pts. Remaining schedule: 41 pts (8th).
Here are the power rankings’ prediction of each team’s final record, given division by division with comments about each team. The final record was calculated simply by assuming that the higher-ranked team will win every game, which is of course unlikely, but gives a good approximation of where each team should be expected to finish.
NFC East
Philadelphia: 14–2
Washington: 9–7
Dallas: 7–9
New York: 2–14
With a four-game lead over the Cowboys, the Eagles have all-but wrapped up the division, though their loss to the Cowboys may have cost them home-field advantage. The Eagles will have to outplay the Vikings over the final four games, and have the advantage of facing just one top-half opponent (the Rams) to the Vikings two (the Panthers and Packers). The Redskins have the easiest remaining schedule in the league, with two bottom-four opponents and two more in the bottom twelve, but their losses earlier in the season mean that they can’t hope for anything better than nine wins, which almost certainly won’t get them to the playoffs. The Cowboys are a game closer to the wild card spot, but face a tough schedule including the Eagles and Seahawks, and will have to win out to even have a chance at the wild card. The Giants, meanwhile, have finally fired coach Ben McAdoo and moved into pole position for the second pick in the draft after the Niners got their second win. It was probably their best week of the season.
NFC North
Minnesota: 14–2
Detroit: 9–7
Green Bay: 8–8
Chicago: 4–12
The Vikings are now in line to host a divisional round game, a conference championship, and the Super Bowl for the first time in NFL history. They will possibly have to beat both the Panthers and the Packers (who will possibly have Aaron Rodgers back from injury) in order to hold off the Eagles for the number one seed, though. The Lions, who were projected to make the sixth seed here last week, stumbled against the Ravens, now are a long shot to make the playoffs, as winning out still might not be good enough. The Packers are in the same boat, but can look forward to Aaron Rodgers potentially coming back. The schedule isn’t easy, and Rodgers will have to beat the Vikings and Panthers, but with Rodgers, the Packers have to think they can beat anyone. Even that may result in the Packers losing a tiebreaker, however. The Bears, who managed to beat the Steelers and Panthers earlier in the season, just lost to the Niners, and seem to be in full-blown tank mode.
NFC South
New Orleans: 13–3
Carolina: 11–5
Atlanta: 8–8
Tampa Bay: 4–12
The best division in football, the South has a chance to send three teams to the playoffs, though the top three teams play each other quite a lot in the last four games, which will probably knock one of them out. The Saints have the inside track to the top spot in the division, and have a chance at a first-round bye if the Vikings or Eagles stumble, but they have two tough games remaining against the Falcons, who have played much better lately. It’s hard to see New Orleans missing the playoffs, but they may end up going in as a wild card if they slip up a bit. The Panthers will also expect to make the playoffs and have a shot at catching the Saints, but they have the fourth-hardest remaining schedule, with games against the Falcons, Vikings, and Packers. They could easily end up anywhere from winning the division to out of the playoffs. The Falcons have the league’s toughest remaining schedule, and are projected here to miss the playoffs. But with how they’ve been playing lately, it’s not hard to see them beating the Panthers and at least splitting the series with the Saints, which should be enough to at least tie them for the final wild card spot. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers play the league’s toughest remaining schedule, and project to lose the rest of their games, which will at least give them a high draft pick next season.
NFC West
Los Angeles: 12–4
Seattle: 10–6
Arizona: 6–10
San Francisco: 2–14
The Rams continue to hold a slight advantage over the Seahawks, but will face tough games against Seattle, Philadelphia, and Tennessee. They could still miss the playoffs if they slip up against those teams, and will likely be a wild card at best if they lose to the Seahawks, as they’ve already lost to them earlier in the season. Seattle’s convincing victory over the Eagles is enough to see them projected to win a wild card spot, and once they get there, they could be one of the favorites to reach the Super Bowl. Their early season struggles may cost them the division or at least a first-round bye, but this team is undoubtedly a playoff team. The Cardinals are now starting Blaine Gabbert for some reason, and will end up without a top draft pick or any chance at a playoff berth. The Niners might be happy to have earned their second win of the season over the Bears on Sunday, though it hurt their draft pick a bit. If Jimmy Garoppolo shows that he’s good enough to win games, though, San Francisco will happily take the draft pick cost that comes with those wins.
AFC East
New England: 14–2
Buffalo: 9–7
New York: 6–10
Miami: 5–11
The Patriots can coast through the rest of the regular season, except for their Week 15 game against the Steelers, which should decide who hosts the all-but-inevitable AFC championship game between the two. The Bills are hanging around in the wild card race, and have only one difficult game against New England remaining. If they can get to 9–7, they have a chance in the weak AFC. The Jets also are sticking around, barely, after beating the Chiefs, but with games remaining against the Patriots and Saints, their playoff hopes are very slim. Still, even being technically still in the conversation at this point is much better than the Jets could have expected. The Dolphins have the third-hardest remaining schedule, with two games to play against New England, and project to lose the rest of their games in a very disappointing season.
AFC North
Pittsburgh: 13–3
Baltimore: 10–6
Cincinnati: 6–10
Cleveland: 0–16
The Steelers barely beat the Bengals on Monday night, which might cast some doubts on their ability to challenge the Patriots for the AFC title. But there is little reason to believe anyone else in the conference can stop them from at least getting to the championship game. The Ravens beat a decent Lions team on Sunday, keeping their lead in the wild card race. They don’t look good enough to win a playoff game, but they look good enough to get there. The Bengals did well to stay close to the Steelers, but with seven losses already and three games remaining against top-fourteen teams, the playoffs are almost certainly beyond their reach. Meanwhile, the Browns are rapidly running out of chances to avoid a winless season. They still have a chance against Brett Hundley’s Packers this week and the Bears in Week 16.
AFC South
Jacksonville: 12–4
Tennessee: 10–6
Houston: 6–10
Indianapolis: 4–12
The battle for the AFC South title will almost certainly come down to the Week 17 battle between the Jaguars and Titans. The Titans currently hold the tiebreaker, so if they win that game and at least two others, they will win the division. The Jaguars have an easier remaining schedule, but it likely won’t matter unless they can beat the Titans. The loser of that game has an easy path to a Wild Card, however. There is a chance the teams could meet in Week 17 and then again in the Wild Card Round. The Texans have a pair of easy games remaining against the Colts and Niners, but have little to gain from winning them. The Colts are also just playing out the season waiting for their injured quarterback to return next year.
AFC West
Kansas City: 10–6
Los Angeles: 7–9
Oakland: 8–8
Denver: 3–13
The Chiefs’ losing streak has now reached four games, casting their playoff hopes into serious doubt. These power rankings still view them as the strongest team in the division, based primarily on their excellent victories over the Patriots and Eagles in the first two weeks of the season. But recent performances give little reason to believe the Chiefs can hold off the Raiders and Chargers, who are now tied with them. The Raiders have a tough game against the Eagles remaining, but could win the division if they beat the Chiefs and Chargers. The Chargers also will likely win the division if they get past the Raiders and Chiefs. If any team wins both of their games against their division rivals, the division is theirs. Meanwhile, the Broncos continue to struggle, and have nothing left to play for other than a high draft pick, and perhaps their head coach’s job.
Playoff Predictions
Wild Card Round:
(3) Saints over (6) Seahawks
(4) Rams over (5) Panthers
(3) Jaguars over (6) Ravens
(5) Titans over (4) Chiefs
Divisional Round:
(1) Vikings over (4) Rams
(2) Eagles over (3) Saints
(1) Patriots over (5) Titans
(2) Steelers over (3) Jaguars
Conference Championships:
(1) Vikings over (2) Eagles
(1) Patriots over (2) Steelers
Super Bowl:
Vikings over Patriots
