NFL Strength of Schedule Power Rankings, Week 8: Chiefs Move into Tie for First

Halfway through the NFL season, a clear top tier of six teams has begun to pull away from the pack. The Chiefs, Eagles, Patriots, Saints, Steelers, and Vikings are separated by just six points, with a further five point gap separating the sixth-ranked Vikings from the seventh-ranked Bills. It seems like a good bet that the four first round byes will come from that set of six teams, though the Seahawks certainly shouldn’t be counted out, as they have a reputation for peaking late in the season under Pete Carroll.

There has been some movement at the top of the rankings, with a decent win by Kansas City moving them into a tie for first with Philadelphia. The Steelers gained seven points, the most of any team, moving from sixth into a tie for fourth. Meanwhile, the Jets and Browns tied for the largest loss of points, losing six each. That loss drops the Jets down six places to 27th, closer to where most would have expected them to be at the start of the season. The Browns, meanwhile, merely end up slightly more firmly in last place than they were before.

For an explanation of how these rankings are calculated, click here. For last week’s power rankings, click here. For playoff predictions according to the power rankings, scroll to the bottom of the article.

t1. Kansas City Chiefs (6–2): 22 points. Last week: 2nd, 17 pts. Best win: Philadelphia (t1st). Worst loss: @Oakland (26th).

A Monday night victory over the Broncos moves the Chiefs into a share of first place in these rankings, as well as a 2.5-game lead in the AFC West. The division seems all but wrapped up, barring a terrible collapse, and the Chiefs appear to have the inside track on home field advantage. They will be pushed hard for the number one seed by the third-ranked Patriots and fourth-ranked Steelers, however. These power rankings suggest that the Chiefs have a slight edge based on their resume to date, but it’s fairly tight with half a season still to play. Should tiebreakers come into play, the Chiefs hold the advantage over New England, having beat them in Week 1, but would lose out to the Steelers, having lost to them in Week 6.

t1. Philadelphia Eagles (7–1): 22 points. Last week: 1st, 20 pts. Best win: @Carolina (t8th). Worst loss: @Kansas City (t1st).

The Eagles easily handled the winless 49ers, preserving their status as the only one-loss team in the NFL. But beating a winless team doesn’t get you far in these rankings, as it doesn’t really indicate anything about the quality of your team. The weakness of that win, combined with the fact that nearly every team the Eagles have beaten so far lost this week (or didn’t play), caused Philadelphia to fall back into a tie with Kansas City. While a playoff spot is nearly certain, as the Eagles would likely need to go 2–6 in the second half of the season in order to miss out, Doug Pederson’s team is only 1–1 against teams with winning records, so it’s hard to say so far whether or not they’re well-equipped to make a deep run once they get there.

3. New England Patriots (6–2): 19 points. Last week: t4th, 13 points. Best win: @New Orleans (t4th). Worst loss: Carolina (t8th).

After a 2–2 start and talk of the end of the Brady era, a four-game winning streak has sent the Patriots into third place. Bill Belichick’s teams often improve as the season goes on, so the team will likely be happy with a 6–2 start to the season, despite a flawed roster that includes the worst defense in the league by yards allowed per game. New England has every chance of having the best record in the league in the second half, earning them home field advantage in the AFC. Their Week 15 trip to Pittsburgh will be key. A loss would mean the Patriots would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to both the Chiefs and Steelers, making a third-place finish their most likely result.

t4. New Orleans Saints (5–2): 18 points. Last week: t4th, 13 pts. Best win: @Carolina (t8th). Worst loss: @Minnesota (6th).

The Saints’ winning streak is now up to five games, and with three of those games coming against teams with winning records, New Orleans looks to be a team that should be talked about more as a possible Super Bowl contender. They have the best resume of any NFC South team so far, and have yet to lose to a team ranked outside of the top six. But the NFC South looks like the most competitive division in the game, with three teams ranking in the top twelve. A four game stretch from Weeks 13 to 16 in which the Saints play the Falcons twice and Panthers once will likely determine whether or not New Orleans can win this difficult division and possibly secure a first-round bye.

t4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6–2): 18 points. Last week: 6th, 11 pts. Best win: @Kansas City (t1st). Worst loss: @Chicago (19th).

The Steelers gained the most points this week, largely due to the fact that the teams they beat earlier in the season keep winning. The Chiefs are the only other team with two victories against top-six teams this season. With no other team in the AFC North ranked higher than 20th, the Steelers should walk to a division title despite shaky performances from Ben Roethlisberger, though they may need him to improve if they are to make a deep playoff run. With the second-best defense in the league this season (by points allowed per game), perhaps the Steelers can give a rapidly-aging Big Ben one last title before he rides off into retirement, just as the Broncos did for Peyton Manning two seasons ago.

6. Minnesota Vikings (6–2): 16 points. Last week: 3rd, 14 pts. Best win: New Orleans (t4th). Worst loss: Detroit (t17th).

The Vikings easily handled the lowly Browns in London this weekend, but slip three spots in the rankings due to other teams playing against real NFL opponents. Still, a position firmly among the top tier of six teams is quite an achievement for a team quarterbacked by Case Keenum. The Vikings’ performances so far suggest that they should soon pull away from the pack in the NFC North and lock up a division title, though their next five games will be crucial. That tough stretch includes four away games and three games against top-twelve teams.

7. Buffalo Bills (5–2): 11 points. Last week: t9th, 6 pts. Best win: @Atlanta (12th). Worst loss: @Cincinnati (t23rd).

A victory over the struggling Raiders sends Buffalo up into seventh place. Such a victory would have been a surprise before the season started, but with the Raiders currently ranked 26th, it’s hard to call it a quality win. The Bills will be very happy with their record and the apparent new culture instilled in the organization by first-year head coach Sean McDermott, but they will need a few more quality victories before we ought to consider them a threat to upset the Patriots for the AFC East division crown, as they have yet to beat a top ten team. The Bills play three top five teams (the Saints, Chiefs, and Patriots) in four weeks from Week 10 to 13, which could give them a chance to collect some of those big wins, though it could also knock them out of a playoff spot.

t8. Carolina Panthers (5–3): 10 points. Last week: t9th, 6 pts. Best win: @New England (3rd). Worst loss: @Chicago (t19th).

The Panthers rank as the top three-loss team in the league, as two of their losses came against top-four teams. They also have wins against two top-seven teams in New England and Buffalo. A win over the Falcons this Sunday could send the Panthers shooting up the rankings, and perhaps make them the favorite to win the division, though Carolina will still have away games against New Orleans Week 13 and Atlanta in the final week of the season.

t8th. Los Angeles Rams (5–2): 10 points. Last week: 7th, 10 pts. Best win: @Jacksonville (13th). Worst loss: Washington (t15th).

The Rams held tight with ten points over their bye week, so we learned nothing new about this team. Their record likely overstates their talent, as they haven’t played any team in the top ten, and they’re only 2–2 against teams outside the bottom ten. As long as they keep beating up on bad teams, the Rams have a good shot at making the playoffs, but they look like a team who will sneak in based on a weak schedule and not make any noise once they get there.

10. Green Bay Packers (4–3): 9 points. Last week: t9th, 6 pts. Best win: Seattle (11th). Worst loss: @Atlanta (12th).

The Packers picked up three points on a bye week because teams they beat earlier in the season keep winning. While these power rankings still have them in a wild card spot in the NFC, that is unlikely to be the case at the end of the season. It’s difficult to see the Packers going 6–3 from here on out with Brett Hundley at QB, and anything less than that probably causes them to miss the playoffs. The Packers put up just three points in both weeks with Hundley at the helm, and unless he made major improvements over the bye week, things will continue to look grim. Signing Colin Kaepernick and giving him the extra week to learn the offense may have saved Green Bay’s season, but it’s probably too late for that now.

11. Seattle Seahawks (5–2): 8 points. Last week: t13th, 4 pts. Best win: @LA Rams (t8th). Worst loss: @Tennessee (t15th).

The Seahawks’ vaunted defense just gave up 38 points to the Texans, but Seattle managed to escape with a win. Still, the Seahawks have just a 1–2 record against teams ranked higher than 20th. Right now, this is a very mediocre team, which actually ranks outside the top six in the NFC and deserves to miss out on the playoffs according to these rankings. But Pete Carroll has plenty of time to iron out the flaws in his team, the most glaring of which (a porous offensive line) may have just been solved by the acquisition of veteran LT Duane Brown.

12. Atlanta Falcons (4–3): 7 points. Last week: t13th, 4 pts. Best win: Green Bay (10th). Worst loss: Miami (15th).

The Falcons stopped their three-game slide with a win against the Jets, but their resume remains fairly unimpressive. They rank eighth in the NFC, outside the playoffs, according to these rankings. They’re also stuck behind two top-eight teams in the division, the Saints and Panthers. Atlanta has two games remaining against each of those teams, so the division is far from decided, but that also means the Falcons have a very tough schedule remaining. A 9–7 record and a failure to make the playoffs would not be surprising.

13. Jacksonville Jaguars (4–3): 6 points. Last week: 12th, 5 pts. Best win: @Pittsburgh (t4th). Worst loss: @NY Jets (27th).

The Jaguars have been very inconsistent this season, never putting together back-to-back wins or back-to-back losses. But inconsistent may be enough to win the weak AFC South, especially now that Houston QB Deshaun Watson has gone down for the season with a torn ACL. The division may well be decided in Week 17, when the Jaguars travel to Tennessee. Jacksonville’s resume looks better than Tennessee so far, but the Titans won the first meeting between the two teams by 21 points back in Week 2.

14. Miami Dolphins (4–3): 4 points. Last week: 8th, 9 pts. Best win: @Atlanta (12th). Worst loss: @NY Jets (27th).

The Dolphins fell hard against the mediocre-at-best Ravens last week, losing 40–0. They fell hard in these rankings as well, dropping six spots. They still have a winning record and are sixth in the AFC, according to these power rankings, which would give them a wild card spot. But their performances have been poor, with the Dolphins scoring the fewest points per game in the league. Miami seems to think they have little chance of making the playoffs, as they decided to trade away star RB Jay Ajayi to the Eagles.

t15. Tennessee Titans (4–3): 0 points. Last week: 16th, 2 pts. Best win: Seattle (11th). Worst loss: Oakland (26th).

The Titans slipped two points on their bye week, as each team they’ve lost to this season lost in Week 8. The Titans have looked mediocre against a weak schedule so far this year, and they’re just 2–3 when not playing a bottom-four team. With the Texans losing QB Deshaun Watson for the season, mediocre may be enough for the Titans to achieve a playoff berth, though there’s no reason to believe they can make a run should they make it in.

t15. Washington Redskins (3–4): 0 points. Last week: t13th, 4 pts. Best win: @LA Rams (t8th). Worst loss: Dallas (t17th).

The Redskins just suffered their first loss to a team ranked below first in the rankings this week, losing at home against the Cowboys. The fact that three of their losses have come against the Eagles and Chiefs suggests that Washington is better than their record, as reflected by the fact that they’re the top-ranked below-.500 team in these power rankings. But those losses still count, obviously, which means the Redskins will likely have to finish the season 7–2 to reach the playoffs. This seems like a decent team, but winning seven out of nine games is probably beyond their reach.

t17. Dallas Cowboys (4–3): -1 point. Last week: 24th, -4 points. Best win: @Washington (t15th). Worst loss: @Denver (22nd).

The Cowboys got their best victory of the season against the 15th-ranked Redskins, shooting them up seven places in these rankings. But that’s hardly an impressive win, and they’ve still yet to beat an above-.500 team. While Dallas has a winning record, they have given us no reason to believe they’re a particularly good team, and they are about to finally lose RB Ezekiel Elliott for his 6-game domestic violence suspension. Dallas shouldn’t be ruled out of playoff contention, but they can likely only afford to lose three more games this season, and they have three games remaining against the teams tied for first in these rankings, Kansas City and Philadelphia.

t17th. Detroit Lions (3–4): -1 point. Last week: 17th, 1 pt. Best win: @Minnesota (6th). Worst loss: Atlanta (12th).

A loss to the fourth-ranked Steelers does not hurt the Lions much in these rankings. All four Detroit losses so far have come against top-twelve teams, meaning that the Lions are probably a bit better than their record. Like the Redskins, however, those losses are nevertheless already on the books, and the Lions will need to close out the season 7–2 to make the playoffs. Despite being fairly good for a below-.500 team, a 7–2 run seems very unlikely.

t19. Baltimore Ravens (4–4): -2 points. Last week: t26th, -7 pts. Best win: Miami (14th). Worst loss: Chicago (t19th).

A 40–0 blowout victory over the Dolphins sent the Ravens up seven spots in these rankings. It’s possible that it was too early to count Baltimore out of the playoff race, as there are no teams that look like particularly strong contenders for a wild card spot in the AFC, aside from perhaps the Bills. But until the Ravens beat a team ranked higher than fourteenth, there is no reason to view them as a real contender, either.

t19. Chicago Bears (3–5): -2 points. Last week: t18th, -1 pt. Best win: Pittsburgh (t4th). Worst loss: @Tampa Bay (28th).

The Bears can be proud of their first-half record. A team that was supposed to do nothing before the season put up a respectable three wins despite playing only one team with a losing record. Barring a miracle, Chicago won’t be coming close to the playoffs, but they can take heart from two wins against top eight teams. Those wins suggest that the Bears have a shot at a seven- or eight-win season, which would be their best season since 2013.

21. Houston Texans (3–4): -3 point. Last week: t18th, -1 pt. Best win: Tennessee (t15th). Worst loss: Jacksonville (13th).

The Texans suffered a very acceptable loss this weekend, losing by just three points to a strong Seahawks team. But they suffered a far more devastating loss in practice this Thursday, losing star rookie QB Deshaun Watson to a season-ending ACL tear. The Texans had shown some promising signs, not losing to any team with a losing record. That bodes well for next year when Watson returns, but it’s hard to see this team winning enough games to make the playoffs this season with Tom Savage at QB.

22. Denver Broncos (3–4): -6 points. Last week: t21, -3 pts. Best win: Dallas (t17th). Worst loss: NY Giants (t29th).

The Broncos are turning to Brock Osweiler at QB to save their season, and travel to the 7–1 Eagles in Week 9. Things are looking bleak in Denver. Despite a defense which has allowed the fewest yards per game, the Broncos have yet to beat anyone ranked in the top half of these power rankings. Is Osweiler good enough to lead the Broncos to a 7–2 record across the final nine games? Probably not. This looks like a lost season for the Broncos.

t23. Arizona Cardinals (3–4): -7 points. Last week: 25th, -6 pts. Best win: Tampa Bay (28th). Worst loss: Dallas (t17th).

The Cardinals moved up a pair of spots on their bye week due to teams ahead of them losing. But every team Arizona has beaten so far lost this week, so the Cardinals’ resume now looks even worse. They’ve yet to beat anyone outside the bottom five, and the three teams they did beat have a combined record of 4–19. Arizona is probably better off losing all their remaining games, securing as high a draft pick as possible, and drafting Carson Palmer’s successor.

t23. Cincinnati Bengals (3–4): -7 points. Last week: 28th, -10 pts. Best win: Buffalo (7th). Worst loss: Houston (21st).

The Bengals did get a win, moving them up five spots in the rankings, but it was a one-point home victory against the 29th-ranked Colts. That changes nothing about how poor this version of the Bengals looks. They will probably win a few too many games to get a great draft pick, but not enough to come close to a wild card spot. The Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton era has gotten stale in Cincinnati. Something needs to change if the Bengals are to make it back to the playoffs.

t23. Los Angeles Chargers (3–5): -7 points. Last week: 20th, -2 pts. Best win: Denver (22nd). Worst loss: @Denver (22nd).

The Chargers’ three-game win streak has ended after a loss in New England. While that loss is hardly anything to complain about, it means Los Angeles can really only afford one more loss this season if they want to steal a wild card spot. For a team that is yet to record a victory over a top-20 team, a 7–1 finish seems nearly impossible. This looks to be another season of disappointment for the Chargers.

26. Oakland Raiders (3–5): -8 points. Last week: t21st, -3 pts. Best win: Kansas City (t1st). Worst loss: @Denver (22nd).

The Raiders were supposed to follow up their 12–4 record last year with another solid season. But last year looks increasingly like an anomaly for Oakland, who put up thirteen straight seasons of eight or fewer wins from 2003 to 2015. Oakland’s Week 7 victory over the top-ranked Chiefs looks like an anomaly, as the Raiders have lost to four teams with records of .500 or worse. There is simply no reason to think that the Raiders will go 7–1 over the back half of the season, and anything worse will almost certainly cause them to miss out on the playoffs.

27. New York Jets (3–5): -9 points. Last week: t21st, -3 pts. Best win: Jacksonville (13th). Worst loss: @Oakland (26th).

The Jets fell six spots after a loss to the Falcons, and after most of the teams they’ve played so far also lost. Their victory against the Dolphins in particular looks much less impressive than it did last week. The Jets now have no wins against top twelve teams, and are ranked much closer to where we would have expected before the season started.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2–5): -12 points. Last week: 27th, -8 pts. Best win: Chicago (t19th). Worst loss: @Arizona (t23rd).

The Buccaneers have faced a tough schedule so far, losing four games against top eight teams. But if the Bucs were going to be a playoff contender like they were supposed to be, they would have to occasionally beat a good team. There’s a decent chance Tampa Bay rebounds to a mediocre record, but they can probably only afford to lose one more game if they want to make the playoffs. With five games remaining against top twelve teams, that isn’t going to happen.

t29. Indianapolis Colts (2–6): -22 points. Last week: 29th, -17 pts. Best win: San Francisco (31st). Worst loss: Arizona (t23rd).

By placing QB Andrew Luck on injured reserve, the Colts confirmed what everyone already knew: their season is over. The Colts haven’t shown they can beat anyone half-decent, as their two victories have come against teams with a combined 0–16 record. They will hope for a second half filled with games like the one they just played in Cincinnati, where they looked fairly competitive but managed to avoid a win. Indianapolis needs to surround Luck with several more talented players, and a high draft pick next April will be a good start.

t29. New York Giants (1–6): -22 points. Last week: 30th, -19 pts. Best win: @Denver (22nd). Worst loss: @Tampa Bay (28th).

The Giants were on a bye week, so the only thing that happened which affects their reputation was a Denver loss, making the Giants’ only win look less impressive than it originally appeared. The only remaining significant game on New York’s schedule is their Week 10 trip to San Francisco. Giants fans should be rooting hard for a loss that week, which would likely move the Giants up to the second pick in the draft.

31. San Francisco 49ers (0–7): -33 points. Last week: 31st, -29 points. Best win: None. Worst loss: @Indianapolis (t29th).

There’s little shame in losing to the top-ranked Eagles, but the 49ers may be concerned that a losing streak which began as a string of close losses has turned into two straight losses by three scores or more. Perhaps newly-acquired QB Jimmy Garoppolo will be what San Francisco needs to finally win a few games. If he wins more than a few, the Niners’ draft pick will get worse, but San Francisco would consider that a small price to pay for having found a franchise quarterback. For a quarterback with just two career starts to his name, however, expectations should probably be kept low.

32. Cleveland Browns (0–8): -38 points. Last week: 32nd, -32 points. Best win: None. Worst loss: @Indianapolis (t29th).

The Browns extended their lead over the 49ers for the last spot in these rankings with a loss to the Vikings. Cleveland only has one remaining game against a bottom-twelve team, and that’s an away game against state rival Cincinnati. There is a very real chance that the Browns could become the first winless team since the 2008 Detroit Lions. The Browns will probably luck into a win at some point, but they won’t be close to a favorite in any of their remaining games.

The Playoffs According to the Power Rankings

Wild Card Round:

3. Minnesota def 6. Green Bay

5. Carolina def 4. LA Rams

3. Pittsburgh def 6. Miami

5. Buffalo def 4. Jacksonville

Divisional Round:

1. Philadelphia def 5. Carolina

2. New Orleans def 3. Minnesota

1. Kansas City def 5. Buffalo

2. New England def 3. Pittsburgh

Conference Championship

1. Philadelphia def 2. New Orleans

1. Kansas City def 2. New England

Super Bowl

Kansas City def Philadelphia