A Tipster’s Guide to Round 2
Happy long weekend folks! And with footy on the menu from Thursday through it Monday it most certainly is a long weekend.
By Brian Randall & Gordon Meredith
Now, be warned! This week is the archenemy of tipsters…
How much do you read into Round 1 form? Is it time to forgot about how a team performed at the end of last season and focus on the four quarters of proof that we have?
Do we look to our long range form guides and back the perennial ‘better’ teams, to be better this time around or jump on the bandwagons of those who impressed greatly last week? Decisions, decisions, decisions…
Good luck tipsters — we might just need it!
BLOCKBUSTER #1 — Adelaide vs. Richmond
Ahhh, the “Grand Final Replay” — perennially one of the most over hyped encounters of the year. The narrative leading into these fixtures is that “wounds haven’t properly healed” for the previous season’s Runners Up, that the Premiers have the ability to “open up scars” from the mental anguish of losing a Grand Final.
Cue the “300 Violin Orchestra” and let’s pretend that this is the 2018 AFL Grand Final come early in Round 2. In reality however, it’s Round 2 and both teams have early season kinks to iron out.
Adelaide blew a last change 20 point lead last week when their legs basically fell off. Richmond battled early against the upstart Blues but at least they got the win.
How Adelaide approaches this game will be interesting.
While the margin wasn’t large against Carlton last week, make no mistake Richmond dominated. 71 inside 50s, for 38 scoring shots… and from a side that “can’t score.” If big guns Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin fire and can help get near those numbers again, it’s trouble for Adelaide.
We’re also still waiting for the Crows’ forward line to show up in a big game. Eddie Betts, Josh Jenkins and (especially) Taylor Walker, we’re looking at you…
Stats That Matter
No side has scored over 100 points against the Tigers in the past 11 games
The Crows lost 44% of their offensive one-on-one contests last round — the worst of any side.
TIP: Richmond
Play Action: N/A
BLOCKBUSTER #2 — Sydney vs. Port Adelaide
If you want a “Grand Final Preview” this is where you should be looking. All pre-season we have been buying stocks in the Swans and Port and we sat back with satisfaction last week, as we watched both sides prove us right.
There are however, some caveats.
Yes, Lance Franklin kicked eight and the Swans won by a healthy margin, but for long stretches West Coast were close and Sydney are still too reliant on Buddy to provide the route to goal. You can’t expect that level of performance every week.
Port pounded Fremantle, but that’s nothing for a predicted Top 4 to hang their hat on. If Patrick Ryder was playing, the Power could have been favourites for this game, with Sydney still struggling with ruck issues. But with Ryder out, the balance of the game swings back in Sydney’s favour — especially at home.
Stats That Matter
The Swans were able to score a goal from 35% of their inside 50 entries last round — ranked №1.
The Power generated a score from 36% of their defensive midfield chains last round — the highest percentage recorded by a side.
TIP: Sydney
Play Action: N/AI
BLOCKBUSTER #3 — Geelong vs. Hawthorn
Easter Monday has produced some great spectacles over the years but can we expect the same again?
The Geelong v Melbourne games could easily have gone the other way last week as the Cats (and concerning the young Cats) seemed to run out of legs late in the game. Geelong also haven’t fixed their issue of leaving too much for too few. No Paddy last week, so Gary Ablett Jnr slotted back in like he had never left Joel Selwood’s side and they both had 39 touches and lead the Cats home.
Patrick Dangerfield is back this week and watch for him to play forward — he loves to kicks goals against Hawthorn.
For the Hawks, Tom Mitchell broke the possession record and despite what Nathan Buckley thinks, that’s a big deal.
Chris Scott will have spent the week focusing on shutting him down. (Perhaps that’s why Scott has coached a flag and Buckley hasn’t….)
The fixture says this match is between Geelong and Hawthorn but really it’s ‘Gary Dangerwood’ vs. Pig, Silk and Roughie.
The Cats win a close one.
Stats That Matter
The Cats recorded the fewest amount of inside 50s of any side in Round 1. From these entries they scored 66% of the time — ranked №1.
The Hawks scored 54 points directly from their forward half intercepts last round — the most of any side.
TIP: Geelong
Play Action: Patrick Dangerfield Most Goals
UPSET ALERT #1 — Carlton vs. Gold Coast
We are expecting to see a contest in this game, despite the clear favouritism Carlton hold.
Carlton’s have decided to shed their dour match play of 2017 and instead attack at all costs, which was exploited by a cleaner Richmond side last week and will be tested by an energetic and disciplined Gold Coast press this week.
Sometimes a coach’s influence is over-hyped by Stewie Dew looks to have had an immediate impact and Suns seem now like more than a group of talented players with potential… they look like a team.
The midfield match ups are pretty even in this game but it’s the bookends where the Suns have the advantage with the likes of Tom Lynch and Steven May.
Are we concerned about the ‘fatigue factor’ the Suns will be facing after slogging it out in a cyclone? A little, but it’s early season and the Blues’ encounter with the Tigers wasn’t a walk in the park either.
Stats That Matter
Tom Lynch has kicked 20 goals in 6 matches against Carlton
The Blues have lost the first two games every season since 2013
TIP: Gold Coast
Play Action: Gold Coast to cover (-13.5) and Gold Coast to win ($2.70)
UPSET ALERT #2 — Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast
The Bulldogs and Eagles both lost their opening round matches, but in very different ways.
The Western Bulldogs were poor last week, and the young Dogs defence looked all at sea against the Giants in a day that saw everything go wrong for them.
What worse reading than the Round 1 scorecard for Dogs fans is their omissions list: Picken, Liberatore, Adams and Morris are out with injuries. Caleb Daniel and Mitch Wallis were omitted from the Round 1side.
What is happening down at Whitten Oval?
West Coast on the other hand were impressive against Sydney, and that level of performance will be more than enough to account for the Dogs.
Despite the fact that the Eagles will still be missing Josh Kennedy, the likes of Le Cras, Darling and Cripps are all capable of kicking bags on weaker defences.
Stats That Matter
The Bulldogs lost the disposal count by 90 last round — their worst differential in any game since Round 23, 2015.
The Eagles averaged 18.2 metres per disposal last round — the second-highest rate recorded by a side
TIP: West Coast
Play Action: West Coast to win ($2.30)
SURE THING #1 — North Melbourne vs. St Kilda
We didn’t rate the Saints in the preseason, but they are definitely better than North Melbourne.
The Kangaroos are dogged but lack any game breaking talent or line breaking speed.
Steven, Armitage, Ross and Billings aren’t a Top 4 midfield outfit in the AFL but they all offer something and something different to one paced “workers”.
St Kilda did a number of a developing lower ladder side last week and they will do a number on a fading lower ladder side this week.
Stats That Matter
The Kangaroos averaged five fewer looseball-gets per game opposed to their opposition last season — the worst differential recorded by a side
St Kilda generated an inside 50 from 41% of its defensive 50 chains last round — the highest percentage of any side.
TIP: St Kilda
Play Action: St Kilda to cover (-18.5)
SURE THING #2 — Collingwood vs. GWS
Nothing suggests that any result other than an easy GWS win is possible… except for the Giants incredibly poor record at the MCG.
They simply have to get better at playing on the ‘G, if they are to give the AFL want they want (a Premiership) and what better learning tool than a cruisy win over the Pies.
Collingwood still can’t get their forward line balance right and their issues from last year, inside 50 efficiency and ball use (especially by foot) are nowhere near resolved.
The Pies have copped a baking in the press, and do tend to come out swinging. Collingwood also have a good record against GWS, but the Giants will be more than ready for it this weekend.
Stats That Matter
The Magpies conceded 54 points from their defensive half turnovers last round — the highest amount conceded by a side
Since 2014, Greater Western Sydney has averaged nine more tackles per game than Collingwood when playing against them — the best differential recorded of any side and one of only three teams in the positive against them in this time
TIP: GWS
Play Action: N/A
SURE THING #3 — Brisbane vs. Melbourne
Melbourne… you blew our pick last week and cost yourself 4 points!
The Demons threw away a game through poor skill execution and decision making, especially in the final five minutes. That shouldn’t have even mattered but Melbourne also fell asleep for half of the second quarter to let the Cats back in to the game.
The Demons do this time and time again… and they wonder why they cop flack for banners like “Future’s so bright, we need shades.” (Might be time to change that bath water.)
We worry about Melbourne when it comes to match ups like this. They should deal with Brisbane comfortably but too often they revert to playing cute “school boy” footy and let sides into the contest.
Better teams beat worse teams more often than not, (obviously) so we’re backing Melbourne to get it done… don’t let us down Demons!
Stats That Matter
Brisbane generated a score from 9% of its intercepts won in the attacking midfield last round — the second-worst percentage recorded in this zone last round.
Since 2014, Melbourne have scored from 56% of its inside 50 entries against Brisbane — the third-highest percentage recorded by a side.
TIP: Melbourne
Play Action: Melbourne to cover (-18.5)
SURE THING #4 — Fremantle vs. Essendon
Essendon have struggled in Perth, in recent times — but perhaps the voodoo won’t pass over from Subiaco to the new Optus Stadium. And besides… Fremantle have just struggled recently, whenever the game has been played.
The Bombers won’t get many better chances to break a hoodoo, as this Freo side doesn’t have the speed to go with Essendon or the toughness to lock them down.
The Bombers should win comfortably but they still shouldn’t be considered a Top 4 chance until they win in a dogfight.
Stats That Matter
The Dockers recorded a time in forward half differential of -4:46 per game last season — the third-worst differential recorded by a side.
Essendon scored from 38% of its clearances last round — ranked №1. It allowed its opposition to score from 15% of its clearances — the third-lowest percentage conceded by a side.
TIP: Essendon
Play Action: Essendon to cover (-10.5)
ROUND 2 TIPS: Richmond / St Kilda / Gold Coast / GWS / Melbourne / Essendon / West Coast / Sydney / Geelong
BEST BET: Melbourne to cover -18.5 @ $1.90
VALUE: West Coast to win @ $2.35
ROUGHIE: Gold Coast to win @ $2.70
R2 MULTI: St Kilda to cover (-18.5) + Melbourne to cover (-18.5) + Essendon to cover (-10.5) + West Coast to win @ $16.63
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