A Tipster’s Guide to Round 4
Most of the time ‘The Boys’ agree but this week there’s disruption among the ranks and a “Sure Thing Showdown” on the cards…
By Brian Randall & Gordon Meredith
Adelaide, Port and Sydney are continuing to streak ahead as the benchmark teams of 2018. Richmond, GWS and Melbourne are hot on the leaders’ heels while a huge chasing pack of clubs create a cluster of teams on either side of ‘The Eight.’ And then it seems that the Saints and Essendon are on the cusp of crisis management.
The storylines are flowing thick and fast and the hottakes are never ending but what is noise and what are reliable trends?
Here’s our take on the Round 4 action…
Adelaide vs. Collingwood @ Adelaide Oval
Tip: Adelaide
This week could be a case of out of the frypan and into the fire for Magpies’ coach Nathan Buckley. An expected win over the arch-enemy Carlton hosed down the “Buckley-Out” rioters but now they are faced with currently the toughest task in footy… Adelaide in Adelaide.
Why Adelaide will win: Are the ‘real’ Crows here yet? After their Round 2 and 3 performances it looks like it. Adelaide are averaging 103 points per game; “Tex, Jenko & Lynch” have made solid auditions in recent as the best attacking trio in the AFL, and Bryce Gibbs has given Rory Sloane the foil he’s desperately needed.
Oh, and throw into the mix that the Crows are 11-4 ATS at home in the last two seasons… now that’s a fortress!
Why Collingwood won’t: One stat… The Magpies have scored from 38% of their inside 50 entries this season, the second-lowest percentage recorded by any side.
In every other facet of the game, Collingwood are competing and are there or thereabouts in regards to the league average for the important KPIs but if you can’t score, you don’t win.
Look out for… Eddie Betts: Look out for the Eddie Betts show. After quiet opening rounds, Betts pocketed three majors last week and he doesn’t mind playing the Pies with 7 goals from his last 4 matches against them.
Play Action: N/A
Greater Western Sydney v Fremantle @ Manuka Oval
Tip: GWS
It’s one that won’t rate highly on people’s viewing watchlists, but it could be an interesting tussle.
Nat Fyfe is rapidly returning to his Brownlow Medal winning form, and Aaron Sandilands will saddle up against a sparse Giants ruck department. Both of those facts would have Freo fans (ambitiously) hopeful of pulling off a huge upset.
Why GWS will win: The Giants came up short last round against Sydney, but they were by no means disgraced. In a game of momentum swings, they fell off their wave a touch too early to hang on for the win. Both their epic clash with the Swans showed that they had improved on their weaknesses: namely a willingness to match physical teams in “the trenches” and their ability to win their own ball. The Giants halved the contested possession count 142–141 and dominated the clearances 47–33.
Why Fremantle won’t: The Dockers whilst being vastly improved still aren’t able to punish team for their mistakes. Fremantle has scored from 42% of their forward 50 intercepts — ranked 18th, the AFL average is 62%. It means that Freo will have to continue to engage teams in a slog to win games.
Look out for… Fyfe and Sandilands: The Dockers have won a hitout-to-advantage from 22% of centre bounces this season — the third-highest percentage recorded by any side and Fremantle has scored from 26% of its centre bounce clearances — the third-highest percentage recorded by any side.
Why? “Sandilands taps to Fyfe…” Expect to hear that a lot on Saturday and for the Dockers to keep this contest close.
Play Action: Fremantle to cover (+35.5) @ $1.92
Richmond v Brisbane @ MCG
Tip: Richmond
We’re big fans of the way Fagan’s Lions are going about their footy, but the Tigers defence was almost impregnable against the Hawks last week, (no one is better at “cutting the ‘G in half” like the Tigers are, which is an astounding feat on such a spacious oval) and it is hard to see how this young forward line can stretch the experienced, and suffocating, defence.
Why Richmond will win: The Tigers’ Trademark Footy works… win as many 50/50 contests as possible, get the ball forward and lock it in. When it comes out, make sure the kicker is under pressure so that the intercepting defenders can mop up and rebound. You have to be an exceptionally clean, poised and physical team to work through Richmond’s maniac forward press. As seen by the fact that the Tigers have scored 74 points per game from intercepts this season — ranked №1 and have recorded a time in forward half differential of +7:58 this season — the second-best differential recorded by any side.
Why Brisbane won’t: The Lions have improved in 2018, but so far only in one direction… attack. Brisbane are ranked 18th in the AFL for pressure acts, (so their forwards aren’t exactly two-way runners) and they have won just 15% of defensive one-on-one contests this season, ranked 18 (which is to be expected from a young defensive unit.)
Look out for… The Weather: “Melbourne Drizzle” is forecast for Saturday afternoon and only the heavens will keep this one close.
Play Action: Richmond to win (1–39) @ $2.50
Western Bulldogs v Sydney @ Etihad Stadium
Tip: Sydney
It’s the replay of the 2016 Grand Final but these clubs couldn’t be further apart in form or development.
With an undersized and inexperienced back line, and Lance Franklin in career-best goal kicking touch, the Western Bulldogs look primed to be on the end of a big defeat…
Is this another blow-out for the Kennel? Or did two renditions of the Club Song fix the young pups footy woes?
Why Sydney will win: Have you watched Sydney play this year?! They’ve rolled out impressive performances against three of the best teams in the competition and it been by playing footy on their terms. The Swans play on a “skinny & short” pitch meaning they want to keep the ball rolling through contests and repeat stoppages and flood numbers at the scrimmages. This allows for their forwards to isolate themselves in space aka allows Buddy to do “Buddy-Things”.
Why Western Bulldogs won’t: As we saw last week, if the Bulldogs bring their premium pressure game, they can shut teams down but they can’t seem to make teams pay on the scoreboard. The Bulldogs have recorded a scoring accuracy of 45% this season — the lowest percentage recorded by any side.
Look out for… Lance Franklin: Buddy only scored two goals last week, but he still basically won the Swans the match. This week, he will be Sydney’s prime target with Reid out injured. Under the dome, on a fast deck, against a undersized Bulldogs defence… Buddy could kick plenty.
Play Action: Sydney to cover (-15.5) @ $1.92
North Melbourne v Carlton @ Blundstone Arena
Tip: North Melbourne
Hobart sees action for the first time in 2018 but unfortunately for Tassie football fans, it’s the nomination for worst game of the round.
Why North Melbourne will win: Home ground advantage. This will be Carlton’s first trip to Apple Isle for a kick, while the Roos have a great ‘home’ record in Hobart having won 11 of the last 15 there. Conversely, the Blues just don’t travel well. They’re 2–10 away from home in their past 12 on the road.
Why Carlton won’t: Brendan Bolton is committed to playing more expansive footy this season but it seems to be backfiring. The Blues have averaged eight forward 50 marks per game this season (18th in AFL), retained 40% of its kicks into the forward 50 this season (17th in AFL) and have been caught holding the ball 20 times this season — the second-most by any club. Perhaps these are teething issues but it doesn’t bode well for the weekend.
Look out for… Ben Brown: North Melbourne’s shining light this season has recorded a shot at goal accuracy of 83% this season — ranked №1 of the top-10 goal kickers in the AFL. If the weather is even half reasonable, pencil him in for a bag.
Play Action: Any player to kick 5+ goals @ $2.30 and North Melbourne to cover (-12.5) +Over 176.5 @ $3.60 *If Dry*
West Coast v Gold Coast @ Optus Stadium
Tip: West Coast
Your eyes are not deceiving you- Gold Coast is playing in Perth for the second week in a row when they take on the Eagles at the new Optus Stadium.
Did anyone say mid-season footy trip?! (The Suns have spent the week in Perth…)
Why West Coast will win: The Eagles have been efficient, almost above all else. The Eagles have recorded a disposal efficiency of 75% this season, (ranked 3rd) averaged 23 disposals per goal this season (the least disposals per goal in the AFL) and average 35 points per game from their defensive half intercepts this season (ranked 3rd). The end result? They’re never out of games, as we saw against Geelong last week.
Why Gold Coast won’t: It’s a lot to ask of these young Suns to stay up, week after week after week. We think they are due for a drop off. Plus their form in Perth is sub par. The Suns have only won 1 match in Perth from 11 attempts.
Look out for… Midfielders to get off the chain: Curnow, Murphy, Neale and Fyfe. That’s the list of players to have 30 or more disposals in the last fortnight against the Suns. There’s another half dozen with 25+. Look for the Eagles mids to rack up the touches.
Play Action: N/A
Essendon v Port Adelaide @ Etihad Stadium
Tip: Port Adelaide
We were on the Port train in the pre-season and the Power are living up to reputation in the early rounds. We were bashing the Bombers all pre-season as well, and well… they are also living up to reputation.
The Bombers apparently play better when they are not expected to win… Will the Bombers bounce back this week?
Why Port Adelaide will win: Port have shown that they already have the pillars of a premiership team this season. They are:
• CLEAN: Average 6.37 disposals per turnover (№1 in AFL)
• POWERFUL: Scored from 31% of its centre bounce clearances (№1 in AFL)
• STINGY: Conceded 33 points from their turnovers (№1 in AFL)
Why Essendon won’t: The Bombers have plenty of talent, but they still have too many fundamental flaws. They lack ball security, recording a time in possession differential of -5:01 this season so far (17th in AFL) while also averaging 4.73 disposals per turnover (18th in AFL). But worst of all they lack defensive intent. The two way running for their forwards last week was non-existent and inexcusable.
Look out for… Ruck battle: Port’s makeshift ruck pairing of Justin Westhoff and Charlie Dixon were embarrassed by Stefan Martin last week (although if Martin played for a Melbourne club, the hype around him would be ten-fold). If Tom Bellchambers can hold Westhoff and Dixon to account, Essendon could keep this one tight.
Play Action: Port to cover (-5.5) @ $1.92
Hawthorn v Melbourne @ MCG
Tip: Melbourne
Suddenly the Demons don’t care about hoodoos, they brought a 17-game drought against North Melbourne last week and now face the Hawks, a club they have only beaten once in their last 15 matches.
Why Melbourne will win: These Demons love to score and can create scoring chains from anywhere on the ground. They have generated an inside 50 from 30% of their defensive 50 chains this season, (№1 in AFL) applied 101 forward 50 pressure acts this season, (№1 in AFL) and scored 13 points per game from their ball-up clearances (№1 in AFL).
Why Hawthorn won’t: The Hawks lack an out-and-out marking forward option, as was seen last week when Roughie was well held for three quarters and Gunston was swung to the back-line. Hawthorn have been outmarked in 12% of their offensive one-on-one contests (18th in AFL).
Look out for… Jesse Hogan: Melbourne’s spearhead has racked up big possession numbers already this season (averaging 21 disposals), and has kicked nine goals. A big goal haul is looming…
Play Action: Melbourne to win @ $1.70 and Melbourne to win by (1–39) @ $2.30
Geelong v St Kilda @ Kardinia Park
Tip: Geelong
This is a crucial game for these sides and they both head into this clash on the back of a pair of defeats but they’re perceived form lines couldn’t be further apart.
Why Geelong will win: The Cats are relying on too few to do too much but they are utilising their two main strengths…
- They are super potent inside 50: scoring a goal from 31% of their inside 50s (№1 in AFL) and taking a mark from 26% of their offensive one-on-one contests (№1 in AFL).
- Their midfield is on fire: The Cats have scored 47 points per game from their clearances this season (№1 in AFL).
Why St Kilda won’t: The Saints have two BIG problems…
- They can’t win their own ball: St Kilda has averaged seven fewer clearances per game than their opponents (18th in AFL) and have scored a combined three points this season from their centre bounce clearances (18th in AFL).
- Their forward line doesn’t work… at all: The Saints have scored a goal from 18% of their inside 50s, (ranked 18th) win only 16% of their offensive one-on-one contests (ranked 18th) and have recorded a scoring accuracy of 52% (ranked 16th).
Look out for… Joel Selwood: This weekend Selwood will break the record for the most games as Geelong captain. He often has played second fiddle to Ablett and now more so Dangerfield but expect a typical lead-from-the-front performance from this determined Cat.
Play Action: Geelong to cover (-29.5) @ $1.92 and Daniel Menzel most goals @ $4.20
ROUND 4 TIPS: Adelaide / GWS / Richmond / Sydney / North Melbourne / West Coast / Port Adelaide / Melbourne / Geelong
BAZ’s BEST BET: Melbourne to win @ $1.70
GORDO’s BEST BET: Port Adelaide to cover (-7.5) @ $1.92VALUE BET: Melbourne to win by (1–39) @ $2.30
BAZ’s ROUGHIE: Daniel Menzel most goals @ $4.20
GORDO’s ROUGHIE: North Melbourne to cover (-12.5) +Over 176.5 @ $3.60 *If Dry*BAZ’s R4 MULTI: Sydney to cover (-15.5) + Geelong to cover (-29.5) + Melbourne (1–39) + Port Adelaide win @ $13.90
GORDO’s R4 MULTI: Fremantle to cover (+35.5) + Port Adelaide to cover (-7.5) + Geelong to cover (-29.5) @ $7.00
Listen to full episodes of What Are The Odds?! here and if you like it give as a review and a rating as well!
Listen to full episodes of What Are The Odds?! here and if you like it give as a review and a rating as well!
