Preview of North Melbourne 2017

2016 in Review

It was a tumultuous year for the Kangaroos, they started undefeated in their first nine games and at that stage it appeared that they could challenge for a premiership. However, it was all downhill from there — winning just three more games and scraping into the finals, with only percentage keeping them above 9th placed St.Kilda. The slump was exacerbated by controversially announcing the delisting of four club and AFL legends before the finals had started. The season was officially over in a disappointing elimination finals thrashing to Adelaide, but had been on the wane for a long time. Most people didn’t expect North Melbourne to maintain their status as ladder leaders for the entire season, but equally, not many predicted their dramatic and abrupt fall from grace. Delisting Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Michael Firrito and Nick Dal Santo before the season finished was seen by many supporters as waving the white flag before the finals had been played, but it could also be the start of an aggressive list management strategy that kick-starts North Melbourne’s rebuild.

Key changes to personnel

Never has a club lost so much experience in Brent Harvey (432 games), Drew Petrie (316), Nick Dal Santo (322, 62 at NM), Michael Firrito (275) and Daniel Wells (243) — losing a combined 1,588 games at AFL level. Not only were they all experienced, senior players; but all were also key members of last year’s team that made the finals.

Brent Harvey’s delisting was one of the more controversial decisions the club made. It was announced only weeks after he broke the all-time AFL games record and he was an immensely popular figure at the club. Additionally, he had a good season, he finished 5th in the best and fairest and kicked 36 goals — the equal most he ever kicked in a season. His sacking displayed the ruthless nature of modern AFL clubs, as he would surely be good enough to be in their first 22 this year, but at 38 years old, is not in the club’s next premiership plans. His sacking was a harsh, but pragmatic decision made by Scott and his team.

Drew Petrie, like Harvey, was synonymous with the club — if Harvey was Boomer then Petrie was a boxing kangaroo, an essential part of North Melbourne for the past 15 years. He had been remarkably durable — missing only 2 games in the last 6 seasons and had been a reliable asset in the forward line, something that many other clubs would’ve loved to have. His delisting was at least a little more understandable, due to his up-and-down season that was clearly not his best. Last season was his worst for a number of years, but many at the club still felt that his sacking was harsh and premature — the fact that West Coast picked him up suggests that he may have another season or two of good football left in him.

Michael Firrito was another club legend to leave the club, although less highly regarded externally; he was the archetypal stalwart defender. Players like him, who are happy to play a role for the team without being flashy, often go under the radar to all but passionate, dedicated supporters of the club. What he lacked in pace and ability, he made up for in effort and sheer willingness to win. He is the kind of player that every coach would love to have as an example to more talented players, to show them the importance of hard work and hunger for the contest. Whilst replaceable on the field in terms of talent, a 275-gamer who gives his all for the club doesn’t come around very often.

Nick Dal Santo was another veteran who left the club, he only played 62 games at North, but was probably the silkiest player on the Kangaroos’ list. Again, a victim of his age and the club’s circumstance, he would have had a chance to play again this year if the club thought they were a chance at a premiership. His departure leaves space in the midfield for the development of a younger player, but his class and experience will be missed and will surely make North Melbourne a much weaker team in 2017.

In addition to these high-profile veterans who left the club, Robin Nahas, Aaron Black and Farren Ray’s departures proved the club’s youth only policy — all leaving the club despite being players who could challenge for spots in the 22.

The one experienced player that North Melbourne didn’t want to lose, but did, was Daniel Wells. Wells finally got back on the field consistently in 2016, playing 19 games and finishing 4th in the club best and fairest. At 32, his departure will not hurt the club’s long-term prospects too much, but now means that Jarrad Waite (34), Scott Thompson (30) and Sam Gibson (30) are the only players over 30 at the club. Wells was the Roos’ most dynamic midfielder, his pace and skill made him a real game-changer and his absence will be noticeable this season.

North Melbourne was relatively inactive in recruiting players during the trade period, instead hoping to rely mainly on the draft and youngsters already at the club. They did, however, trade in Paul Ahern, Nathan Hrovat and Marley Williams. Ahern was at the Giants for two seasons without managing a senior game, the former pick 7 is a goalkicking midfielder, but is unlikely to play in 2017 due to his continued recovery from an ACL injury in September last year. Hrovat comes in after only managing 30 games in four seasons at the Western Bulldogs, the hardworking midfielder should get more opportunities at the Kangaroos. Williams is a running defender with lots of flair, he played 60 games at Collingwood and should slot comfortably into the Kangaroos back six.

North Melbourne had four selections in the draft, most exciting of whom is Jy Simpkin (pick 12). He was rated as one of the top 17 year olds at the start of last year before breaking his leg early on and missing much of the season. The Roos picked him up later in the draft than previously expected, he is a quick midfielder/forward who made his return to footy in the JLT Community series and could have an impact this year. The Kangaroos also selected key defender Declan Watson with pick 34, pacy outside midfielder Josh Williams with pick 36 and versatile, key position player Nick Larkey with pick 73. They also picked up Matthew Taylor, Cameron Zurhaar and Oscar Junker in the rookie draft.

North Melbourne’s Draw

North Melbourne actually has quite an easy draw considering they finished in the top-8 last season. Their three home games in Tasmania are against premiership prospects GWS and Adelaide as well as finals hopefuls Melbourne. This could be advantageous to North as they would go into all these games as underdogs at a neutral venue, but their impressive record at Blundstone Arena (9 wins from 12 games) gives them a better chance of winning these difficult matches. Apart from their four games in Tasmania (including one away match against Hawthorn), they only have to travel interstate four times and all against teams that didn’t make the finals last year — Brisbane, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and Fremantle. They play 13 games at Etihad Stadium and so will want to make sure they play that ground well.

Looking forward to

North Melbourne now has a very young and inexperienced list and so it will be interesting to see both how young players emerge and also to see which second-tier players can step up and become leaders of the club. Young players such as Simpkin, Hrovat, Jed Anderson, Luke McDonald, Ryan Clarke and Trent Dumont will want to cement their places in the 22 and continue to improve as AFL footballers. They will get more game time this year to prove they have the ability to succeed at AFL level.

The departure of so much experience allows players who have been solid contributors for a few years a chance to lead and become key members of the team. Cunnington, Atley, Wright, Brown, Thompson and Macmillan are amongst this group of players who will need to improve and take on more responsibility this season to help replace the outgoing veterans.

Now that those senior heads have left the club, the leading players of the club — Swallow, Ziebell, Goldstein, Higgins, Thomas and Tarrant need to take charge and lead the way for younger players at the club. This will not only be important in terms of on-field performance, but also in mentoring and helping younger players adjust to playing AFL football. Ziebell is an old-fashioned footballer with a relentless attack on the football and with him as captain and a relatively young leadership group around him, it will be exciting to see a new direction from the Kangaroos.

Worried about

Whilst the aggressive list management of removing older players despite playing finals is brave, and will probably benefit the club in the long run, it will surely mean there is at least one year of rebuilding and poor results. Losing one or two 200-game players is difficult to recover from and replace, let alone losing 5 — two of whom had played 300 games and another 400. It would be ridiculous to think that North Melbourne can replace these players straight away — especially considering their lack of recruiting in the trade period. The players they did bring in are young and inexperienced, and whilst good prospects for the future, are unlikely to have much of an impact immediately. The list currently lacks the experience and quality to seriously contend for finals places and the changes to the list has put them from last year being premiership contenders, to not being in the finals race in 2017.

Of particular concern is a lack of pace and quality in the midfield — their main midfielders Cunnington, Ziebell and Swallow are all good players, but are hardworking, grunt players that are most valuable when they can offload the ball to a more skilful, polished player who can hit a target in the forward line, rather than kicking it themselves. Last year, the midfield had Harvey, Wells and Dal Santo to feed the ball to, all of whom could break a line or hit a target, it is hard to find a player now on the list who will be able to do that this season for the Roos.

The Kangaroos’ list managers may look back on the departure of so many veterans with regret — whilst it is important to give young players a chance to play, it is also vital that they can learn from experienced, older players at the club. North Melbourne now has only Andrew Swallow and Jarrad Waite who have played more than 200 AFL games; this lack of experience could really hurt the development of young players at the club.

It’s a big season for:

Jack Ziebell: Finally given the captaincy after being a part of the leadership group since he was 21, he will lead the club through the rebuilding phase. In the past, North Melbourne has been spoilt with vast experience to draw upon, now however, Ziebell finds himself one of the most experienced players at the club and he has a huge responsibility to lead the very young list. He will be graded not only by his on-field performance, but also by his leadership on and off the field. He will want to set the example for younger players both on the training track and on the field.

Ben Brown: He has only played 55 AFL games, but has shown immense potential with good hands and reliable set shot at goal. With only the ageing and unreliable Jarrad Waite and inexperienced Majak Daw as support in the forward line, more pressure will be on Brown to become the focal point of attack. He will need to have a consistent season to give the Kangaroos a dependable avenue to goal. Brown has the chance this year to step up and mark himself as a leader of the Kangaroos’ forward line for many years to come.

Brad Scott: The bold decision to axe so many fan-favourites made Scott incredibly unpopular amongst supporters, especially as many thought the club could still challenge for a premiership in the next few seasons. This year, disgruntled fans will be highly critical of Scott if the team does move down the ladder, as predicted. It could be a difficult season for Scott, supporters are not always happy to wait for success and could see the club’s rebuilding strategy as premature, especially considering they made preliminary finals in 2014 and 2015. As long as the board believes Scott is the right man to be in charge for a rebuild, his job will be safe, barring a catastrophic season.

Todd Goldstein: He is probably the player with the most ability at North Melbourne, despite having a quiet season last year. Turning 30 this year, he still has a chance to recapture the form that saw him All-Australian ruckman and North Melbourne best and fairest in 2015. The rule-change that no longer allows a third man up in a ruck contest is set to suit Goldstein who is a hitout machine. This should help him to dominate opposition ruckmen from stoppages as he did in 2015.

Expectations

It is hard to think that less than 12 months ago, North Melbourne were one of the favourites for the premiership. After dramatic list changes, it’s difficult to see them challenging for finals places this year. They have lost three of their top seven finishers in last year’s best and fairest and 1,588 games of AFL experience. With this shear loss of both skill and experience at AFL level, the Kangaroos will surely slide down the ladder this year. More responsibility will be placed on younger, emerging players to step up if they are to challenge at all in 2017, but it is more realistic to think that their list will take a few years before again being competitive in September.

Predicted finish: 15th