Preview of Hawthorn 2017

2016 in Review

The Hawks gave themselves every chance at a 4-peat by finishing in the top four. They were, however, surprisingly disappointing in the finals — losing to Geelong and the Bulldogs to go out in straight sets. Throughout the season they never quite had the same presence as in the previous premiership years. In winning six games by less than ten points, they proved that either they were very good at managing close games, or were a bit lucky to have so many wins last year. It was ironic that they had made the top four on the back of so many close wins and yet in their first final they lost the closest game of all with a missed kick after the siren.

Key changes to personnel

The Hawks made some dramatic changes to their list in the offseason. They virtually gave Sam Mitchell to West Coast — receiving pick 88 in return. A four-time premiership player and the best and fairest last season, this was seen as a bizarre move by many, with Mitchell still amongst the best players in the AFL. However, at 34, he will surely only have one or two more years of football left, and so his absence leaves room for younger players to fill the void. Similarly, they traded Jordan Lewis to Melbourne for basically nothing. This was possibly even more surprising considering Lewis is only 30 years old, finished second in the best and fairest last year, and was even seen as a possible future captain of the club. Hawthorn also traded Brad Hill to Fremantle; this was because Hill wanted to move to his home state. Hill is not as big a loss as Lewis or Mitchell, but was one of the few outside runners in the midfield at Hawthorn, and as a younger player, he would’ve been part of the rebuild.

The Hawks were very shrewd in replacing these outgoing older players with highly talented youngsters who should have an immediate impact in the midfield. Tom Mitchell is a very good pick-up, he is an ideal replacement for his namesake Sam Mitchell. Whilst obviously less credentialed at only 23 years old, he should be able to forge a strong career with the Hawks over the next 5–10 years. Jaeger O’Meara was also traded in from Gold Coast. In his first couple of seasons, he lit the competition on fire like few other players of that age have done, and was seen as a future Brownlow medalist. However, injury has plagued him since and he hasn’t played since 2014. He is therefore a risky selection, but if he can get back on the park consistently, he could be a brilliant trade. With Mitchell, he could lead the Hawks to more premiership success. Tyrone Vickery was the other player the Hawks managed to acquire in the trade period. The much-maligned tall forward was a favourite scapegoat of Richmond fans for being another round 1 draft pick who failed to reach his potential. However, at Hawthorn, he will have much less pressure and expectation placed on him, he will not be the number one target and he will get better delivery as well. He could prove to be an inspired pick-up, and is reminiscent of other successful older players the Hawks have selected in the past such as David Hale and Brian Lake.

The Hawks also welcome back Jarryd Roughead to not only play, but also captain this season. His goalkicking and physical presence were missed greatly last year. Having survived a cancer scare, Roughead will be eager to make his mark as the new leader and drive Hawthorn to further success this season.

Having been so active in the trade period, the Hawks were left with only two picks in the draft. They took Harry Morrison with pick 74, and the ironically named Mitchell Lewis with pick 76, who has big shoes to fill if he is to replace either Sam Mitchell or Jordan Lewis. They also got James Cousins and Oliver Hanrahan in the rookie draft.

Hawthorn’s Draw

Hawthorn has one of the most challenging draws of any club this season. They play premiership contenders Geelong, Sydney and Adelaide twice, as well as finals chances Gold Coast and Collingwood twice. Their season opener against traditional rivals Essendon was huge, with Essendon running out eventual winners agains their old foe. The last game of the season could also be massive — playing the Bulldogs for not only their chance at redemption from last year’s finals exit, but it could also be vital in vying for a place in the finals or top four positions.

Looking forward to

Most neutrals were happy that Hawthorn were not in the Grand Final last year, just because of how incredibly successful they have been, but even their detractors will admit that at their best, they are very fun to watch. They have a number of players that have ‘x-factor’ — they can change a game off their own boot in the space of a few minutes. Cyril Rioli is the obvious example, he doesn’t need to get a lot of possessions to win a game for his side; Roughead can pop up and kick a few important goals, or move into the midfield to change a game; O’Meara is another player who could be in this category — at his best he can be a real gamechanger.

Many fans were upset that they let club legends Mitchell and Lewis go so cheaply, but they should also be excited by their new recruits. The prospect of O’Meara reaching his potential, Tom Mitchell racking up 30 disposals regularly, and even Vickery providing target in the forward line should give fans something to look forward to this season. It will be a new look Hawthorn in many ways, and whilst many at the club will be sad to see Lewis and Mitchell perform well for other clubs, they should be just as happy to see new recruits start their careers as Hawthorn players.

The Hawks still boast a potent and varied forward line, which should only get better with the addition of Vickery and Roughead. They have a mix of tall marking options in Gunston and Sicily, as well as elite crumbing small forwards with Breust, Rioli and Puopolo. Hawthorn’s attack is truly varied, with all five of these players kicking at least 30 goals last season. This makes them incredibly hard to match up with, as most teams are able to keep one or two players quiet, but struggle to contain such a diverse attack. Vickery managed 26 goals last year, and Roughead has regularly kicked more than 50, so they should not worry about kicking a winning score this season.

Worried about

The uproar after trading out Mitchell and Lewis was partly justified — particularly as they received so little for them. It is unprecedented for a club to trade out their top two in the best and fairest, and it is an incredibly risky strategy. The Hawks have gambled on the fitness of O’Meara, having not played in two years, he could take a while to reach his potential, if he ever does. Losing two such experienced leaders of the club could really affect the on-field performance, as well as the whole culture of the club — older players might begin to question their value to the club and think if they perform poorly their head will be on the chopping block.

The Hawks’ older players are not very quick and rely more on skill and poise to beat their opponent, the finals loss to the Bulldogs last year highlighted the team’s lack of pace. The Hawks were unable to contain the multitude of quick, small players that the Bulldogs have and in the end caved under the constant pressure that they were under. In the past, they have worked through pressure by finding targets and accurately kicking through a zone, it appears however, that the Bulldogs may have unlocked a way to beat the Hawks; with relentless pressure. The trading out of Hill means they have fewer players this year that can break the lines and push through the zone defence, which is concerning.

Although they did trade out two of their most senior players last year, the Hawks still have an old list, with not a lot of young talent coming through. Particularly risky is their strategy to rebuild through older players instead of the draft, whilst this has worked in the past for the Hawks; it has backfired spectacularly for many other clubs. They will certainly hope that O’Meara and Vickery in particular are able to play consistently and can help build the next era of the club.

It’s a big season for:

Jarryd Roughead: It’s a big year for a number of reasons for the ‘Rough’. Firstly, he is returning from a cancer scare, a massive achievement in itself, and his first game was if nothing else, a celebration of his fight to overcome such hardship. Secondly, he is now captain of the club, and has less leadership around him with Lewis and Mitchell departing. He has already stamped his authority on the team by suspending former captain Hodge from round one for missing a training session. This decision sends a message that the same rules apply to all players at the club — no matter how many games they have played. It will be interesting to see how he handles situations such as this throughout the season. And finally, Roughead has not played a game since his team’s third premiership in a row against the Eagles. He will surely take some time before he returns to his best and is able to have an impact on the field. It’s a massive year for Roughead and the AFL will be better for having such a great person of the game back playing.

Jaeger O’Meara: A lot of pressure is on O’Meara to perform — he comes in to replace premiership players Mitchell, Lewis, and to a lesser extent Hill. He hasn’t played for two years and should be given some leniency this year, but Hawthorn gave up a lot to get him and fans will be expecting to see something from him immediately. He definitely has the talent to justify his high price, he just needs to stay injury-free.

Luke Hodge: Stepping down from the captaincy last year, Hodge has not set a great example this year — missing a training session and consequently will not play in round one. Although no longer the official captain, Hodge will always provide a massive on-field presence to his teammates — just as he did before he was captain. It would be understandable for a player like Hodge to be satisfied with his career after four premierships and two Norm Smith medals, but if Hawthorn wants to again be premiership contenders, then Hodge will need to keep up his high standards both on and off the field.

Isaac Smith: With Hill leaving the side, Smith is virtually the sole elite outside midfielder in the team. He will be the man the Hawks need to burst away from packs and gain territory to try and overcome zonal and pressure defence from opposition teams. Smith will have a point to prove this year, with his missed shot after the siren last year costing Hawthorn a spot in a preliminary final. This is something Smith will never be able to forget, but he will be desperate to play well this year to make amends for that one unfortunate moment.

Expectations

It is hard to tip against the Hawks; they still boast massive experience despite the trades they made. They possess a team that has been good enough in three out of the last four years to win the premiership and whilst a little older and missing a few players now, it is not beyond their reach again this year. Their new recruits could be brilliant selections — Tom Mitchell looks like he will be a great player in the midfield, whilst O’Meara has the potential to be the best in the league, and Vickery should play a role in the forward line. However, the loss of Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis and Brad Hill will definitely hurt the Hawks this year — it will be very hard to replace their two best players from last season straight away. With this in mind, Hawthorn is unlikely to be as good as they were last year. They should not be written off completely, but it is likely that other teams will go past them. They should still make the eight, and it wouldn’t be that surprising if they do finish in the top four, but the ageing list and the loss of key players will be too much for them to challenge for the premiership again.

Predicted finish: 7th