The Brownlow Forecast: A Club-by-Club Guide
Dustin Martin is this year’s clear Brownlow Medallist favourite but this night is often more fun as a fan if we dive deeper and see who is going to poll well at a club by club level.
As such, Baz and Gordo from What Are The Odds?! have broken down who they think will be your club’s best performer on Brownlow Night…
Adelaide — Top Pick: Rory Sloane (Correct)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 1st for tackles
• Ranked 9th for inside 50’s
• Ranked 6th for clearances
Whether or not Sloane is Adelaide’s highest vote getter will depend on how many of the Crows’ other jets steal votes off him. Sloane isn’t a precocious possessions winner and he “stand-out-ability” will have been stunted by the games where he was effectively tagged out of matches. Look out for the Crouch brothers or Rory Laird to be the roughies that could pitch the top spot from Sloane.
Brisbane — Top Pick: Dayne Zorko (2nd)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 8th for tackles
• Ranked 10th for inside 50’s
• Ranked 23rd for clearances *
It was a year of improvement for Brisbane but not one of many wins and as such the Lions probably didn’t get enough positive results for any of their players to do too much damage on the Brownlow tally board.
One player who did shine though was the ‘great’ Dayne Zorko, was a persistent highlights package amongst all of Brisbane’s games regardless of the result. A roughie for the Lions’ best could be the “other” Dayne — Dayne Beams. (Correct — Beams was Brisbane’s leading vote getter in 2017.)
Carlton — Top Pick: Bryce Gibbs (Correct)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 10th for kicks
• Ranked 18th for tackles
After Cripps went down early in the season, the door was left ajar for a couple of the Bluebagger stalwarts to claim the most votes prize and our pick is Bryce Gibbs. Gibbs is a midfield that kicks goals (which the umpires love) and his best games are ones that we really stands out in.
While other perennial high-poller Marc Murphy was Carlton’s Best and Fairest, that voting system seems to favour players who are consistently good and no those that have flashier games but less often. Given that consistency however, Murphy would be a good Blues roughie.
Collingwood — Top Pick: Adam Treloar (4th)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 16th for disposals
• Ranked 7th for handballs
• Ranked 14th for tackles
It was a strangely quiet year for the skipper Scott Pendlebury, (apologies… it’s wasn’t Pendles became the second all-time Collingwood vote getter and the highest polling Magpie in the 2017 count) so this will be one of the few Brownlow counts where people won’t say that he’s been robbed of either the ‘Charlie’ or the credit of being Collingwood’s best.
This year that accolade will mostly likely go to his midfield partner in crime Adam Treloar. Treloar is a legitimate ball magnet, and another mid that goes forward and kicks goals and to top it all off was Collingwood’s stand out best player this year. Treloar is a little handball happy, but that just means his closer to the umpire — making it easier for him to get in their pockets.
We don’t see there being an upset but if forced to pick one, Brodie Grundy had a good year.
Essendon — Top Pick: Zach Merrett (Correct)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 10th for disposals
• Ranked 6th for kicks
• Ranked 15th for frees for
Earlier in the season, Merrett was on track to be a Brownlow Medallist. His Charlie hopes faded with his club’s Premiership hopes but he still managed to put together an outstanding year that saw he selected as an All-Australian for the first time. The best thing about Merrett is that he is a possession heavy midfield that KICKS the ball, and kicks it well, boasting one of the best disposal efficiencies in the AFL. It’s class and poise like that, which sticks in the umpires minds.
Look out for Joe Daniher to poll surprisingly well also, as the breath-taking “Buddy-like” forward is becoming a greater voter getter each year.
Fremantle — Top Pick: Nat Fyfe (Correct)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 9th for contested possessions
• Ranked 13th for contested marks
• Ranked 18th for clearances
After a rough start to the season, Fyfe will likely poll heavily late. He’s a proven umpires favourite (as a previous Brownlow Medallist) and really shone in some of Fremantle’s games down the stretch. A roughie could be Michael Walters, who shone early but had his season ended by injury.
Geelong — Top Pick: Patrick Dangerfield (Correct)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 3rd for score involvements
• Ranked 1st for contested possessions
• Ranked 1st for clearances
After Dangerfield’s suspension AFL was have been having nightmares about last year’s winner, being this year’s leading votes getter but having to give the medal to someone else. Luckily that situation most likely won’t happen but Dangerfield is a shoe-in as Geelong’s leading poller. His versatility is mind-blowing as is his ability to turn a game on its head. He takes crowds’ breath away and the umpires aren’t immune to his powers.
Boy, we have to start feeling sorry for Joel Selwood as well. After coming out of Gary Ablett’s shadow he has fallen into Paddy’s. Look for Selwood to be a bridesmaid again.
GWS — Top Pick: Josh Kelly (Correct)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 4th in inside 50’s
• Ranked 5th in effective disposals
• Ranked 5th in tackles
This year’s breakout player has been rewarded with a healthy bank balance increase but he should also be rewarded by the umpires as well. The only thing that goes against his voting chances is that there will be a few midfielders for the Giants who may take votes off each other.
The roughies for GWS are numerous (Dylan Shiel, Tom Scully, Toby Greene, Jeremy Cameron…) with any of the Giants able to pop up and steal votes in all of the Giants’ impressive wins.
Gold Coast — Top Pick: Gary Ablett (Correct)
Key Stats:
• Averaged 33 disposals per game
• Averaged 8.2 score involvements
• Averaged 7.7 clearances*
Speaking of the shadows, this man casts one over the Suns… in terms of vote getting ability. Being in a losing side doesn’t stop him (as he proved when he win the Brownlow as a Sun) and we expect him to poll well again, despite playing fewer games. He did enough to be crowned Gold Coast’s best and fairest (despite only playing 14 matches), making for a very interesting off-season predicament for all parties involved in regards to his future.
Hawthorn — Top Pick: Tom Mitchell (Correct)
Key Stats:
• Ranked #1 in effective disposals
• Ranked #2 in disposals
• Ranked #9 in tackles
Mitchell is the clear standout for Hawthorn’s leading vote getter as he had a remarkable season (statistically) averaging 35.8 disposals and over 6 tackles per game. He has been criticised for “getting a lot of the ball and doing nothing with it” as was shown by his 50 disposal game against the Magpies in Round 9 which the Hawks lost by three goals. The umpires have a history of loving the blokes with leather poising however, but in reality Hawthorn didn’t win enough games this year for him to challenge at the top of the Brownlow leaderboard.
Look out for Shaun Burgoyne to poll surprisingly well also — Silk was at his namesake’s best this season and handles like his will also attract the umpire’s eye.
Melbourne — Top Pick: Clayton Oliver (Correct)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 1st for handballs
• Ranked 2nd for contested possession
• Ranked 7th for clearances
The ginger-hard-nut was the early season Brownlow favourite, such was the explosion of his break-out season but he did regress back to the mean as the year went on. As power running, pack exploding player he will catch the eye and should poll well.
The smoky for the Demons is Christian Petracca, a player who only needs a quarter of superb footy to be noticed.
North Melbourne — Top Pick: Ben Brown (Correct)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 4th for goals
• Ranked 3rd for marks inside 50
• Ranked 7th for contested marks*
It was a tough year for North Melbourne but a break out on from Ben Brown, who was on track for the Coleman Medal and spent plenty of time in the spotlight. Also the fact that the Kangaroos had a poor season means that there aren’t too many blokes to steal votes off him — Cunnington is probably the only one.
Port Adelaide — Top Pick: Robbie Gray (3rd)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 10th for goals
• Ranked 2nd for goal assists
• Ranked 9th for marks inside 50*
Robbie Gray was part of a group of midfielder-forward who brought the smaller “full forward” back into fashion. At his best Gray is a walking highlights machine, something that the umpires (and the fans) love.
Ollie Wines also had a good year, but wasn’t as flashy as his teammate. (But the umpires still loved him, he was the highest polling Port player in this year’s count.)
Richmond — Top Pick: Dustin Martin (Correct)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 1st for inside 50s
• Ranked 2nd for score involvements
• Ranked 3rd for contested possessions
With Danger, ‘no danger’ of winning back-to-back medals Dustin Martin is the un-backable favourite and the personification of the hard-nut mid who can roll forward and impact the scoreboard. Dusty could break the 40 vote barrier — such has been the dominance of his year.
St Kilda — Top Pick: Seb Ross (Correct)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 12th for disposals
St Kilda’s weird year performance wise is reflected in their potential vote pollers, which is not many. The Saints played their footy in fits and spurts and this was reflected in the individual performances of their players. Best of the bunch for us is Seb Ross — but we don’t expect the vote count to be a high number.
Sydney — Top Pick: Lance Franklin (2nd)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 1st for goals
• Ranked 1st for score involvements
• Ranked 3rd for inside 50s*
No one grabs the attention of fans and umpires alike that this generation’s Mr. Centre Half Forward, Buddy Franklin. He should pick up the three votes in each of his big bag games and he performs the freakish on such regular intervals that he will likely pinch votes in games he shouldn’t have.
The massively underrated Josh P. Kennedy will be just that again — underrated by the umpires — but is still our roughie for most Swans votes. (The roughie got up! Pipping Buddy by one vote.)
West Coast — Top Pick: Josh J. Kennedy (Correct)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 2nd for goals
• Ranked 2nd for marks inside 50
At home, Kennedy is almost a shoe-in for a big bag and thus a shoe-in but his lengthly spell due to injury may cost him top position.
The chasing pack will be large with the likes of Sam Mitchell, Luke Shuey and Andrew Gaff all to poll at least a few votes.
Western Bulldogs — Top Pick: Marcus Bontempelli (Correct)
Key Stats:
• Ranked 13th for goal assists
• Ranked 12th for tackles
• Ranked 14th for inside 50s
The Dogs had trouble with ‘The Package’ this season but the player who really is the complete package is “The Bont.” He’s not as statistically prevalent as other elite players in the game, but his influence (and memorability) in games is second to none.
A sneaky smoky could be Jack Macrae, who was one of the few Dogs to improve on their Premiership year performances.
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