What are the Odds?! ‘Ep 1’ — Richmond to stop doing Richmondy things… Maybe.
Two blokes who love to ‘talk the talk’ in regards to their weekend punting punditry have finally accepted the challenge to put their (fake) money where their mouth is and show the people their hands.
Each week on What are the Odds?! Brian Randall and Gordon Meredith will present to you their best, surest and most audacious tips from the wide world of sports.
Expect banter, expect a little bit of analysis and if any of their tips get up — a lot of ‘told you so’ texts and fist pumps.
The Weekend Ahead for Thursday 22nd June
Brian: I left the AFL alone last week (thankfully) because it was a tough weekend if you’re a footy punter.
Gordon: Yeah, I was lucky that some bookies have their ‘mid-year cash out guarantees’ running as a lot of leads were blown last week in both codes… that’s right Baz, I watch a little league as well.
Brian: Wasn’t much easier if you followed Melbourne racing either, with the a few roughies and horses that haven’t won for nearly two years winning at the Valley. Thankfully the AFL on paper looks an easier proposition this week, as does the racing, throw in the Confederations Cup and we are set for a weekend of profits and bragging rights.
Gordon: Confidence! That’s what we like to hear… now to see if you can back it up.
Brian: If you were one of the many people who at half time were counting your winnings because Richmond was in your multi and then by the end of the game were telling your mates that you are never putting Richmond into one of your multis again over several “commiseration” pints at the bar, well I’m sorry but I’m going back there this week.
Gordon: A punter never learns, do they mate?
Brian: It’s a different week mate. And I bet on analysis, not luck. Here’s the form — these are two teams with two different styles of play. Carlton like to play with spares behind the ball and are happy to give the ball up at a stoppage to force a turn over in the back half and then go forward.
Compare that to Richmond, who are a high pressure ‘pressing’ team who like to keep it in their forward half and force turnovers in the front half of the ground.
Gordon: I agree with you so far. Richmond have been an exceptional contested ball side this year as well, so Carlton’s only source of score generation will be on the deep turnover. Something’s that hard to do against a team that pressures that ball carrier.
Brian: I also feel that Richmond have too many stars who can win them a game.
Gordon: To be fair — Dusty and Rance could win this one on their own… almost.
Brian: Carlton have been up and done well recently but the Tigers will have too much for them. I know it’s hard to do after last weeks debacle of a loss that seemed to cost a lot of people their multis but Richmond get up here.
Gordon: As a Richmond fan I’ve still nervous about this one, but I managed to find a prop bet to hedge against any losses. Bryce Gibbs had a huge game last week against the Suns and a couple of bookies have a ticket for Gibbs to have 23 touches, kicks goal, lay 5 tackles and for Carlton to get up — at $5, it would make the post match beers taste better if the Tigers do something ‘Richmondy’ on Sunday.
Brian: You’re not going to need it mate, but it’s always good to have a safety blanket.
Gordon: So realistically Baz, that’s a pretty safe bet… what’s your ‘Big Dog’ bet of the week for Footy?
Brian: Well… hear me out here. The Bombers have a habit of getting the jump on teams in the first quarter recently and have been playing some exciting and quick football.
I expect them to come out early against the Swans before the congested spaces of the SCG slow them down.
It will be a tight tussle throughout the game with the Swans come over the top and win in the last quarter. I like the quarter by quarter bet of Ess/Syd/Ess/Syd paying $61.
Gordon: Good analysis, good reasoning… but it’s not going to happen.
Brian: Wait and see mate, wait and see — what’s yours?
Gordon: Mine is a under/over multi — we should see a high scoring between the Pies and the Power at the ‘G (if the rain stays away) and at Etihad between the Dogs and Roos. While Richmond and Carlton will (most likely) be a error-riddled defence-fest and the under will be the play there. So Over / Over / Under @ $7.29
Brian: Can’t really shout the bar with that one mate…
Gordon: Can’t shout them with yours either, if it never gets up.
AFL BEST BETS
Sure Thing #1: Richmond win by 15.5 or more (Tri Bet) @ $2
Sure Thing #2: Adelaide to win by 40 or more @ $1.60
Player Bet (& Richmond Cover): Gibbs to have 23 touches, 1 goal, 5 tackles in a Carlton win @ $5
Brian’s Shout the Pub Bet: Qtr-by-Qtr — Ess/Syd/Ess/Syd @ $61
Gordon’s Shout the Pub Bet: Coll v PA (Over) + WB v NM (Over) + Rich v Carl (Under) @ $7.29
Gordon: Australia are featuring in the Confederations’ Cup at the moment — is there any value there for those that want an added reason to stay up and watch?
Brian: Australia and Cameroon play each other Friday morning and if you have been watching the Socceroos lately, not only are we likely to be scored against but we tend to score as well.
Gordon: Isn’t that most games mate? Sorry… I know what you mean. Continue…
Brian: Playing the new formation is still a work in progress for the Socceroos and is leading to us leaking goals, the positive is we also tend to be scoring regularly too.
In our last 17 matches there has been two or more goals scored in 16 of them. I reckon they’ll be over 2.5 goals in the game, especially with the amount of goals being scored so far this tournament.
Gordon: Much safer bet than trying to pick the result in what is essentially a warn up competition as well. For those that want a more ‘exotic’ option, I found one that took my fancy as part of one bookie’s #BYOSocceroos campaign.
Brian: So one that definitely won’t get up then?
Gordon: Perhaps… but let me explain. I’m a massive Aaron Mooy fan and he’s in the form of his life, while keeper Mat Ryan is also doing a pretty fine job with gloves. So I’ve combined your over 2.5 goals with Mooy to have an assist and Ryan to make 3+ saves add the arbitrary cards and subs under and overs to add a little value.
Brian: That sounded ok until you mentioned the cards and subs kicker…
Gordon: Well, I’ll let you know how it goes at 4am Friday morning.
SOCCEROOS vs. CAMEROON BEST BETS
Brian’s Best Bet: +2.5 goals @ $1.95
Gordon’s ‘Best’ Bet: +2.5 goals / Mooy assist / Ryan +3 saves / over 4.5 subs / under 5.5 cards @ $7.50
PLUS
Barrel’s Multi-Sport-Multi
Richmond to win by more than 15.5 points + Aus vs Cameroon over 2.5 goals + Adelaide to win by 40 = $6.24
Brian: That multi really should be my sure thing for the week… I’m very confident. It’s a short, quick multi and hopefully gets the job done for us.
Brian: Is there any other sports we should cover this week?
Gordon: NRL is in it’s post Origin slump, so avoid that. British and Irish Lions are on the improve in Union, but never bet against the All Blacks at home and over in the States we’ve got the baseball but I think we should leave that for another day.
Brian: Good call mate.
Got a sport, market or prop you’d like us to cover? Hit us up on Facebook or Twitter and tag it with #WhatAreTheOdds
Also: For those that like to have something to do during half time at the footy, or post match after your ‘ammos’ game, here’s Barrel’s Track Take-Aways for the weekend…
Horse of the Weekend
Flemington Race 9 — №3: Samovare
You will have to wait until the last at Flemington to brag about this win to your teammates — This former WA filly has only missed a placing once in her six starts and that was at her first visit to the track. She stormed home first up to just miss to a fit inform mare. Second up here is well placed and a G3 winner in WA. Will be short but should really be winning this race with bigger things in mind further down the track. Currently around the $4 mark.
Best Each Way Value
Flemington Race 6 — №8 Rough Justice
The record at the track over this distance and form second up in a prep is really good. Ran well first up and this looks like a very winnable race currently sitting at $11 to win and $3.5 to place.
