What are the Odds?! Footy Forecast for Finals Week 2
Every week the boys from What are the Odds?! breakdown the angles and look for the value in the upcoming weekend’s AFL matches.
Semi Final #1: Geelong v Sydney
Baz and Gordo: Sydney to win and cover (-15.5) and Sydney to cover (-15.5) and Under 144.5 total points
Why? Tonight, Geelong is in the strange position of being the higher placed team on the ladder, hosting a home final against an interstate club and still being a long odds underdog.
However, it isn’t hard to see why given the Swans’ run of form since the second half of the season and the Cats’ poor performances over the last month.
Apart from one game earlier in the year (Round 4, 134 vs. Hawthorn) Geelong have struggle to kick a winning score at the MCG, and have found it especially difficult recently.
Adding, further woes to the Cats Premiership hopes is the fact that they are carrying players who aren’t fit (as seen by Joel Selwood’s performance last week) while the loss of Cam Guthrie hurts their midfield, especially on defence.
Sydney conversely don’t mind playing at the ‘home of football’ (despite an unflattering home and away record at the ‘G this year) and have an excellent record against the Cats, having won five out of their last six games against Geelong.
Lance Franklin on a big ground (regardless of the weather) will be able to use his athletic power to turn the tables on his direct opponent, Rhys Stanley.
While the likes of George Hewett, Tom Papley and Gary Rohan won’t mind the wet weather and should be expected to kick some ‘mini bags.’
Cats fans could be forgiven for thinking that the wet weather gives Geelong a puncher’s chance in this match up but the reality is that no one knows where their goals will come from.
The Cats dropped Daniel Menzel last week and the result was a collective output of 2.1 between Harry Taylor and Tom Hawkins.
Menzel returns tonight but his inclusion won’t be enough to the cover the difference between the Cats and the Swans in attack.
The Swans proved their attacking proficiency last week with 54 Inside 50s (and 121 points) but the real bad news for Geelong is that Sydney only conceded 32 Inside 50s last week.
Against Richmond (for all intents and purposes a poor man’s Sydney) the Cats only managed 38 entries at 39% efficiency for 15 total scoring shots.
Even with Melbourne’s “September Finest” forecast, Geelong will need to score 70+ points to win; something we don’t see them doing as they only managed 40 last week and 61 last time they met Sydney (at Simmons Stadium as well).
The wet weather makes the unders a fairly safe play as scoring shouldn’t be very easy on a soft to wet track.
Player props wise, the usual suspects should be the main angles tonight — look out for Patrick Dangerfield (if fully fit) to rack up the possessions while goal sneak Gary Rohan is great value for most goals, and more so in the wet and challenging conditions.
NB: This article was updated to reflect the late omission of Tom Longeran, who will miss tonight’s Semi Final due to food poisoning… When will AFL players learn that ham is a bad choice?
