What are the Odds?! Footy Forecast for Finals Week 3
Every week the boys from What are the Odds?! breakdown the angles and look for the value in the upcoming weekend’s AFL matches.
Preliminary Final #2: Richmond v GWS
Baz and Gordo: Richmond to cover (-9.5) and Under 175.5 [Correct Prediction]
Why? Melbourne’s in meltdown and the lid is well and truely off, so with no one thinking about this game rationally we’ve taken it upon ourselves to do it for you…
Hottake #1: Stevie J Playing is a win for Richmond.
Real Take: Let’s be honest, that wasn’t a hottake. Yes, Stevie J kicked six goals last week but his first came in the third quarter after GWS already had a 42-point lead. This game will be decided by which team is able to maintain defensive pressure at both ends of the field and even at his best Steve Johnson has never been renowned for his defensive pressure. Add in the fact that he was unable to perform a full workload at training this week and the result is that one team will have the full 22 committed and able to execute two-way football and one will only have 21.
Hottake #2: The Tiger Army will be an influence on Saturday.
Real Take: Again not really a hottake. Football purists are absolutely livid that the Qualifying Final between Geelong and Richmond was played at the MCG despite being a Cats “home” game and their grievances may be warranted. Like it or not AFL players are human and 95,000+ fans for one club cheering when the Tigers merely execute a simple pass versus 95,000+ fans booing, taunting or abusing any Giants’ activity will have an effect on performance. And GWS know this! They know it so well in fact, that they have been playing “loud noises” at training this week to get their players used to the cacophony they will have to endure… Perhaps they would be better acclimatised with they had some more members.
Hottake #3: Skill or Will? GWS don’t have the blue collar ethic to run with Richmond.
Real Take: It’s a pretty harsh assessment to say that GWS’ player don’t want it as much as Richmond’s but performances throughout the season suggest this. The most obvious was their last meeting, in Round 18.
Under flooding sunlight the Giants dominated the first quarter keeping Richmond to just two behinds, (but GWS only managed to kick three goals) to take a 20 point lead into quarter time. With Melbourne being Melbourne the fifth season for the day rolled in and the monsoonal downpour alter the game’s momentum. Richmond were more than willing to do away with finesse and finely tuned skill and reverted to metres gained football and immense pressure on the ball carrier. The Giants wanted to continue with their champagne football, but their charged glasses went flat and they lost a slog of a match 64–45.
Finals football can often be a lot like wet weather football and if the Giants want to make it to the Grand Final, (let alone win it) they will need to learn to play with substance over style.
How Richmond Win: Be Richmondy, circa 2017
The Tigers’ game plan is pretty simple: pressure, pressure, pressure — but boy is it effective!
All year the Tigers have suffocated teams by swarming the contest and locking the ball in their forward 50, as was epitomised by their performance two weeks ago against Geelong.
As with every game, Richmond will need their guns to fire as well. Alex Rance will need to neutralise the scoreboard impact of big Jon Patton and focus on incepting any attempts GWS make at crashing packs and getting their crafty small forward goal sneaks in the game.
How GWS Win: Play to their ability
No one is mistaken in thinking that the Giants’ list isn’t the best in the competition… it is, and it will be for many years to come. But if GWS want flags to go with their AFL handouts they will need to start playing to their potential.
If Patton can be a central focus point and make Alex Rance accountable, if Toby Greene can keep his temper in check and his radar locked on; if Josh Kelly kicks more than he handballs and does the tough things as well as the flashy things; if Heath Shaw keeps a lid on things and is the senior influence this young team requires; and if the Giants midfield group win the hard inside ball and don’t just wait for the ball to be given to them on the outside…
GWS could (and probably should) win this match. That’s a lot of ‘ifs’ though.
Most Important Player — Dustin Martin (Richmond)
The Tigers will also (of course) need their hero to continue to play like one. It’s fairly obvious that there will be pressure on Dustin Martin to charge (and arguably carry) Richmond’s midfield against one of the most stacked centre groups in the AFL.
Coniglio, Kelly, Ward, Whitfield and Shiel all found form against the Eagles and collectively the Giants are ranked №1 for clearances. The Tigers are ranked 14th.
Prediction: Wet or dry, expect a low scoring tussle. Hardwick won’t let this become a shootout, it will be a flashback to the combative, determined and dogged performances of Sydney and Fremantle in their Grand Final tilts. We see a low scoring affair, a commendable Preliminary Final win for Richmond and a bonkers Grand Final week in Melbourne…
Preliminary Final #1: Adelaide v Geelong
Baz and Gordo: Adelaide to cover (-17.5) [Correct Prediction]
Why? There are plenty of talking points surrounding both clubs coming into this epic Friday Night match up, so let’s brake them down.
Hottake #1: Josh Jenkins’ mid-week banter puts un wanted pressure on Adelaide.
Real Take: As much as the media loves to play these “beefs” up, this is a classic Adelaide move. They have been doing it all year (especially Jenkins)and we love it. It shows the Crows are confident and at the end of the day it probably releases pressure on the playing group by having some fun before the match.
Hottake #2: Playing Dangerfield forwards is the key to beating the Crows.
Real Take: While Paddy torn the game up by playing in the forward pockets against Sydney, Adelaide’s defence and midfielder should be more of a challenge tonight and as such we see Dangerfield having to spend more minutes in the midfield. The reality is Geelong have relied heavily on “Dangerwood” to win the midfield battles and will most likely have to again tonight.
Hottake #3 — Scott Selwood should tag Rory Sloane.
Real Take: While it’s likely that Scott will go to Rory, it arguably more important for Geelong to stop Adelaide’s rebound from defence (by stopping the likes of Laird, McKay or Seedsman) or stifling the Crows’ forward line movement and synchronised patterns by tagging Tom Lynch out of the game. Lynch plays an important role not only in providing a scoring options but also in orchestrating the Crows’ forward line movement — and forcing him to deal with persistent defensive pressure would stifle his ability to play ‘forward general.’
How Geelong Win: In A Low Scoring Dogfight
The only way we see the Cats causing a huge upset is if they can lock this game down. Geelong potentially have the troops (minus an elite ruckman) to win the midfield battle. While a repeat stoppage strategy would assist in breaking the Crows’ flow transitioning from defence to attack.
Geelong don’t have the offensive weapons currently to kick a big score, (their highest score in the last 5 weeks is 103 points — and that was at Kardinia Park) so if they want to win, they’ll have to win ugly.
How Adelaide Win: Play Fast and Score Early
Line by line, the Crows win the match up in every head to head (with perhaps a draw in the midfield.) With that in mind Adelaide should put Geelong to the sword early.
The Crows’ game is based on dynamic running patterns from all 18 players on the field and if they are warranted any space, Adelaide should impact the scoreboard early. An early lead will be hard to lose at home.
Most Important Player — Sam Jacobs (Adelaide)
While all the media hype will be on Dangerfield, Selwood, Sloane, the Crouch Bros. and Adelaide’s forward line, the player with the biggest chance to impact on this match up is “Big Sauce.”
Aside from maybe Patrick Ryder, Sam Jacobs is the best ruckman in the AFL and should be very excited by what he sees on the Geelong team sheet in regards to the Cats’ proposed big men.
Whether it Zac Smith or Rhys Stanley, Jacobs has both of them covered, not only with his tap work but also with his athletic ability, forcing Geelong’s talls to go with him around the ground and make them accountable.
To top it all off he can kick goals as well. If “Big Sauce” has a big game, it will spell an Adelaide win.
While there are some healthy angles to tempt you into backing a Geelong upset, (for example: the Cats have won 5 out of the last 6 and Adelaide have a poor Preliminary Finals record) the basics of the situation are this: while finals are usually tight, the best team usually wins.
Prediction: Adelaide have been the AFL benchmark all year and will prove so again tonight.
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