What are the Odds?! Footy Forecast for Finals Week 3
Every week the boys from What are the Odds?! breakdown the angles and look for the value in the upcoming weekend’s AFL matches.
The 2017 AFL Grand Final shapes as an absolute classic with one of the two longest Grand Final droughts in the league to end with either minor premiers Adelaide or fairytale team Richmond set to lift the trophy…
…or so the media would have you think but ‘The Boys’ from What Are The Odds?! have dusted off their Crystal Ball and the prediction isn’t pretty reading for Richmond, (especially from Baz’s point of view.)
Here’s how the ‘One Day In September’ action will play out according to according to Baz and Gordo:
GRAND FINAL: ADELAIDE VS. RICHMOND
ROAD TO THE FINALS — MAJOR TAKEAWAYS
Adelaide: Clean, Skillful and Clinical
The overwhelming takeaway from the Crows’ finals campaign has been how clean they have been when kicking and the fact that more often than not, they are kicking aggressively.
The major media narrative all year has been the lack of impact Rory Sloane has had on games, but in reality this is a compliment to Adelaide’s half-back/midfield/half-forward depth.
Rory Laird, (who went at 90% by foot against the Cats) Paul Seedsman, Tom Lynch and of course the Crouch brothers have all stepped up and made the simple tactic of “lets tag Sloane” a more difficult option to take because the Crows now have six or so players who validate permanent minders.
Richmond: Battle hard early, blow teams away late
Our concern for Richmond coming into the final showdown, is that fact that in both of their comfortable finals wins it took them a full three quarters to kill the game off.
Richmond are yet to capitalise on early momentum and field position with score board pressure and that in turn leaves their opponent with an opportunity to chase them down after the momentum swings back.
Adelaide are a highly efficient attacking team and Richmond will need to capitalise on their field position from the first quarter if they are to match it with the Crows.
While Dustin Martin is obviously Richmond’s best player, captain Trent Cotchin is proving to be increasingly influential especially with his attack at the contest. Another inspired “bull at the gate” performance will be needed from the Tigers’ leader.
KEY GRAND FINAL MATCH-UPS
While the elite midfielders will fill up most of the pre-match column inches (and deservedly so) we see these contest being decided by match-ups outside of the centre square.
Tom Lynch (Ade) vs. Brandon Ellis (Rich)
As we have discussed ad nauseam on Footy Forecasts this season, Tom Lynch is the Crows’ forward movement lynchpin. Stopping him (if that is possible) will go along way to halting Adelaide’s offensive juggernaut. Both players accumulate a lot of possessions and it will be interesting to see if either is willing to perform a negating role, if their opponent gets off the chain.
Taylor Walker / Josh Jenkins (Ade) v Alex Rance (Rich)
Whether it’s Jenkins or Walker, this will be a fitting heavyweight stoush with Rance, the All-Australian captain.
Walker hasn’t gone goalless all season and also leads the league in goal assists, while Jenkins is always dangerous as a secondary options and easily capable of get out over the back.
Rance plays a pivot role in Richmond’s rebound from defence, which the Crows will be looking to negate but forcing the intercepting defender to be held accountable whenever possible.
Eddie Betts (Ade) v Dylan Grimes (Rich)
Betts is a mercurial talent and is more than capable of replicating Cyril Rioli’s first quarter performance against West Coast in the 2015 Grand Final.
This creative genius has the ability to change games like few others and must be closely minded from anywhere in the 50-metre arc.
Furthermore, the 30-year-old’s emotion after the final siren last week shows his desire to finally play in a Grand Final and he will be eager to have an impact early.
Grimes is however, a worthy adversary and one with a good history against the purveyor of goals from the pockets.
Daniel Talia (Adelaide) v Jack Riewoldt (Richmond)
Despite a reduced goal kicking tally, Riewoldt’s 52 goals is still the biggest haul by any Tiger forward this season and by some margin — however, kicking a massive bag against Crows won’t be Jumping Jack’s role. (But they’ll take it if it happens…)
Riewoldt will be looking to crash the packs and bring the ball to ground so that: firstly, Adelaide’s rebound run from defence is negated and secondly, the Tigers’ small forwards are bought into the game.
Talia’s job therefore will require more than just performing lock-down job on the Tiger’s key forward however, his performance against ‘Tomahawk’ in the Preliminary Final suggests that the Crows defensive king is up for the challenge.
CRYSTAL BALL
Adelaide are the minor premiers, their match day 22 is an outfit without a weak link and they are a kick first team, capable of maintain high levels of disposal efficiency regardless of the level of pressure put on them.
Credit to Richmond, their team defence has been outstanding, and they have managed to find a way to kick winning scores — averaging 100 points per game since Round 17.
BUT… We can only see this going one way (in terms of a result) and two ways in terms of how the game will play out.
PLAY ACTION
Baz: Adelaide to cover (-6.5) @ $1.90 / Adelaide to win by 40+ points @ $5.00
Richmond, congratulations to you. Well done, you’ve made me look like a fool for most of the season, but you’re run is over and I feel like you may have played your Grand Final a week early.
This ridiculous build up only increases the pressure on you, and you have been fumbly and nervous early in matches this finals series. A trend that I see that continuing.
Gordo: Objection! I’m going to dispell some myths here…
1) All pressure is on Richmond: Wrong!
There’s no pressure on Richmond — they are the fairytale underdogs! All the pressure to perform is on Adelaide (remember they are the Minor Premiers) and they too are looking to end a lengthy drought of 19 years.
2) Adelaide are the overwhelming favourites: Wrong!
If Adelaide are paying $1.75, they have an implied winning percentage of 57% — that’s no shoe-in. So the Adelaide Advertiser is actually adding undue pressure by saying the result will be a foregone conclusion.
Continue…
Baz: … While all of that is valid, I still think Adelaide will win and whilst we’re dispelling myths, I’ve got one for you as well — Richmond aren’t the only club with a fairytale story coming into this finals series.
No other club has had to deal with more adversity than Adelaide, and it has made them a stronger organisation for it. A Premiership will be just reward for a job well done. But sentimentality doesn’t win Premierships, good footy does and Adelaide’s best is better than Richmond’s.
Gordo: Either side by less than 15.5 points @ $2.63 OR Adelaide to win by 40+ points @ $5.00
History of the AFL-era Grand Finals suggests that this game will play out in one of two ways.
A) It’s a low-scoring dogfight and the margin is less than three goals
OR
B) A team gets away early and runs away with the game… so that’s my play action for the game.
I agree that Adelaide is the better side, but the better side doesn’t always win the Grand Final.
I’ll be hoping that Richmond win, but I THINK that Adelaide will.
WHAT YOUR PROPOSITION?
Gordo: I’ve also found some ways to get some extra value if you want to back Adelaide.
Stat Bet #1: Adelaide to have most clearances and win @ $2.70
This game will be won and lost at the source and if Adelaide are to win the game, they’ll have to win the midfield battle.
Stat Bet #2: Richmond to have more Inside 50s but Adelaide to win @ $7.00
Richmond’s “bomb it inside and lock it in” kicking style will play into Adelaide’s elite intercept marking and I can see Richmond feeding the Crows a lot of the ball on their halfback line.
First Goal: Under 1 minute @ $7.00 OR After 5 minutes @ $3.10
In all finals games, (since 2001) the first goal of the match has been kicked after five minutes in 35% of matches and inside the first minute in 15% of matches — these are the two situation where you’ll have an edge of the bookies’ odds — so if props are your thing, there’s the angle.
NORM WATCH
Baz’s Top 5 Norm Smith Favourites:
Jake Lever @ $51.00: Classy rebounding half back with an excellent kick, could get off the chain and attract the eye.
Charlie Cameron @ $26.00: Could repeat what he did last week vs. Geelong.
Eddie Betts @ $18.00: A couple of jaffas from Eddie’s pocket and the Norm will be his… (along with the win!)
Matt Crouch @ $8.00: Potential match winner for the Crows, a very important player. [BEST BET]
Dustin Martin @ $4.75: Dusty will need to be at his Brownlow best for the Tigers to win… but even if they don’t he could join the unwanted list of Norm Smith medallists in losing sides.
Prediction: Adelaide have been the AFL benchmark all year and will prove so again today. Romance is dead and the Crows will be Premiers…
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