What are the Odds?! Footy Forecast for Round 18
Every week the boys from What are the Odds?! breakdown the angles and look for the value in the upcoming weekend’s AFL matches.
Here’s where the action is according to Baz and Gordo:
Adelaide vs. Geelong
Baz: Geelong to win
Why? Injuries and a plethora of ‘ins and outs’ make this game a tipping nightmare. However, I’m leaning towards Geelong in this one.
The Cats will do some work on the Crouch brothers and it will be interesting to see how they go without Sloane (potentially) being their to absorb the primary tag and the absence of Jake Lever will leave Adelaide exposed at the back.
While Adelaide have some good small forwards, Geelong’s little men have trouble the Crows in the past and the Cats made a real statement against Adelaide last time they met.
Gordo: Under 180 points
Why? With a lot of big names missing or carrying niggles, this is a really hard one to pick.
That lack of polish on both outfits however, means that this game could be a low scoring one for mine.
The two squads come back to parity with clouds hovering over each the squad’s superstars and instead of a showcase match, this could be one that is won in the trenches.
Essendon vs. North Melbourne
Baz and Gordo: No Bets
Why? If Essendon bring the same level of pressure on the ball carrier to this game that they found for their demolition job on St Kilda last week, then this game will be very one-sided.
North Melbourne are a heavy ‘handball-first’ team and the ‘Roos will find it hard to break the Bombers defensive lines with that approach. Ironically all of the KPIs suggest that North should give Essendon a run for their money on Saturday afternoon, but nothing from their matches since the bye suggest that they can win.
Essendon to win but we aren’t confident by how much.
Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide
Baz: Under 180 points
Why? Squad vs. squad — these are two very evenly matched sides.
Port will look to force Melbourne to rush kick from stoppages, preventing the Demons from using their trademark clear-by-hands approach, and the Power look to mop up the subsequent bomb kicks with their free man behind the ball.
How both coaches react to the clash in styles will be interesting to watch.
Picking a winner in this one is too hard for me, but with (for all intents and purposes) a Top 4 spot on the line, expect a tight, heavily contested and thrilling match on Saturday afternoon, and one that will most likely trend unders.
Gordo: Port Adelaide to win and cover (-6.5)
Why? Port have the better inside midfielders at the moment and if we apply the ‘Four Change Rule’ to this match, Melbourne’s *five* ins — despite all being keystone players — could prove very costly this week.
On paper Port have more avenues to goal than Melbourne and in a game that could be a *’Race to 100'* — personnel and game style suggests that the Power will get there first and by a few lengths.
Western Bulldogs vs. Gold Coast
Baz and Gordo: No bets
Why? These are two clubs which have almost impossible form lines to track.
The reigning premiers are having a bizarre ‘Premiership Hangover’ and have never really looked like hitting their straps this year while the Suns inconsistencies aren’t so much seen week-to-week but quarter-to-quarter.
We see the Dogs winning but at $1.30 favourites there’s no value there. Can the Dogs win by four goals or more? We’re not confident that they can.
Sydney vs. St Kilda
Baz and Gordo: Sydney to win and cover (-27.5) and/or Under 175 points
Why? St Kilda have really struggled against clubs that can force their opponents to play contested, stoppage heavy football — as is seen by their biggest losses this year with +30 point losses to Geelong, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs and of course, Sydney.
St Kilda have travelled really poorly this year, while Sydney are a force to be reckoned with at home.
A night game at the SCG would suggest that this game will be low scoring as well, especially as no team has scored more than 85 points against the Swans since Round 6.
Fremantle vs. Hawthorn
Baz and Gordo: Hawthorn to win and cover (-5.5) and/or Over 162 points
Why? Punters often lean on the ‘travel factor’ as a crutch for tipping winners, but in reality the better team more often than not wins — and Hawthorn are by far the better team in this match up.
Also expect this to be higher scoring than the over/under total predicts.
Despite being held to 85 points against Geelong lats week, the Hawks have scored more than 95 points in every other game since their bye.
Richmond vs. GWS
Baz: GWS to win and cover (-6.5)
Why? Despite Damien Hardwick’s words to the contrary, I think Richmond have got ahead of themselves.
They headwobbled themselves to a massive boilover against the Saints and the ‘creative’ positional changes against Brisbane (Trent Cotchin at full forward, etc.) stunk of arrogance to me.
So I’m picking GWS on the basis that their squad packs more talent than the Tigers and that I think Richmond have gotten a bit ahead of themselves.
Gordo: Richmond win
Why? Sydney provided the blueprint on how to beat GWS last week, and Richmond have a similar set up that would allow them to execute that blueprint.
Since Round 12 the Giants have struggled against heavily structured, “defence-first” sides that force players to earn every one of their possessions.
The absence of Jeremy Cameron will hurt the Giants more than people realise. Last week GWS’ forward line look dysfunctional without a key target to structure themselves around.
While this is a 50–50 game, there is no reason why Richmond couldn’t cause an upset here and validate their claim for a Top 4 spot.
Collingwood vs. West Coast
Baz and Gordo: Collingwood win
Why? Collingwood (on the stats sheet) match up very well against West Coast and the Eagles’ poor record in Melbourne gives the Magpies the edge here.
Both teams have plenty to play for — Collingwood: their coach’s career, West Coast: their finals hopes, so expect a tight and competitive affair, but one where the Pies get the points… just.
Brisbane vs. Carlton
Baz and Gordo: Carlton to win and cover (-5.5) and/or Under 184 points
Why? Similar to the Fremantle/Hawthorn game, travel shouldn’t be a factor here as the Blues have the superior list and both their budding youngsters and older heads in fine form.
Brisbane might have been scored heavily against in the last couple of rounds, but the over/under total for this match is way off. Carlton haven’t been involved in a match that has totalled over 180 points since their bye in Round 11.
