What are the Odds?! Footy Forecast for Round 20
Every week the boys from What are the Odds?! breakdown the angles and look for the value in the upcoming weekend’s AFL matches.
Here’s where the action is according to Baz and Gordo:
Geelong vs. Sydney
Baz and Gordo: Sydney win and Under 165
Why? Sydney was the last team to beat Geelong at Simmons Stadium (R16, 2016) and the strange dimensions of ‘Kardinia Park’ probably play into Sydney’s favour, as they prefer skinny grounds where they can play tight, contested footy.
Patrick Dangerfield is obviously a huge omission for Geelong and as such, Sydney (on paper) have a stronger midfield.
If you aren’t confident enough to tip Sydney head-to-head, the unders here is one of the safest plays of the round.
The last three clashes between the Cats and Swans have gone under the total and on top of that, Sydney have really struggled to convert in front of goal.
With forecast for cold, wet, contested, ‘finals like’ footy, it suggests that this will again be an unders game.
GWS vs. Melbourne
Baz: Melbourne
Why? Despite a disappointing loss to ‘North Horbart’ last week, it wasn’t a shaming loss as the the ‘Roos have been playing pretty decent football of late, and definitely played the local conditions better than the Demons.
The return of Nathan Jones is a massive in for Melbourne, and even though they lose Jesse Hogan — I don’t see the loss of one key forward as too much of an issue for the Demons, as it will force to to be more innovative when entering their forward 50.
When they have done that, that’s when they have looked at their most dangerous.
Oh, and I think GWS are pretenders…
Gordo: Melbourne to cover (+12.5)
Why? I don’t have enough confidence in Melbourne to back them head-to-head but they are much closer to GWS than this +2 goal line suggests.
In the scheme of this year’s season, Melbourne are a good team.
They’re not a great team (and they’re not going to play in the Grand Final as Baz keeps suggesting) but they are good enough to beat any team in the AFL on their day.
Essendon vs. Carlton
Baz and Gordo: Under 180
Why? Many might be asking… “Do we go all in on the Blues to cause an upset?” The answer is: “No.”
Many things are in Carlton’s favour: Carlton have won 2 of the last 3 against Essendon. The Blues have covered 4 of the last 5 against the Bombers and Essendon haven’t covered at the MCG in their last seven outings as favourites… but the reality is Carlton have played horrible football in the last few weeks.
The Blues, a defence-first focused team, only laid 48 tackles against Brisbane two weeks ago and while they improved that number against Geelong (85 tackles) they still conceded +100 points.
Essendon are in our (growing) list of pretending teams as they struggle when their opponents dedicate themselves to pressuring the ball carrier and when Essendon don’t focus on winning in the inside ball or ‘tagging’ the opponents key player
It could be wet, very wet on Saturday at the G and this brings Carlton back into the game but Essendon in reality have too much firepower and should win this game but the unders is the obvious play for ours.
Brisbane vs. Western Bulldogs
Baz and Gordo: Western Bulldogs to win and cover (+28.5) and Over 188
Why? This is game is fairly clear cut in our minds. Chris Fagan is beginning his ‘list rotation’ procedures (a.k.a. ‘tanking’ — if you’re reading Fagan, Baz and Gordo are available to play for the last month of the season) and Brisbane will be well over the ‘four change threshold’ that we have seen come into effect this season.
Furthermore, games at the Gabba have trended over as Brisbane look to score whenever they can, and concede points just as readily.
In fact, the over is 6–0 this year when the Lions are at home after losing by 60 or more, which spells good news for the Dogs and their finals hopes as this looks like a percentage boosting win for the reigning premiers.
North Melbourne vs. Collingwood
Baz and Gordo: Collingwood to win and cover (-11.5)
Why? Surely the only thing Collingwood need to do to win this game is to do a lock down job on Ben Brown.
Brad Scott and North’s football department has already started prepping for next season but putting blokes on ice or sending them off for surgery so that they will be right for 2018’s preseason but with those factors sliding Collingwood into favouritism, the feat of Collingwood becoming the ‘Collywobbles’ sets in.
In reality, if Collingwood play the same first half this week as they did against Adelaide in Round 19, they could be 100 points up at half time.
If Collingwood win, we see them doing it by far more than two goals — so we’re backing Collingwood to cover but it will be a nervous wait to see if the wobbles come back.
Fremantle vs. Gold Coast
Baz and Gordo: Over 169
Why? There are too many variables in this match up to try and lay a cover bet. Will Gary Ablett play? Can the Suns travel without hinderance? Can Fremantle dominate a team at home? The only real certainty we can find in this game is that it will be an overs game.
Domain Stadium fixtures are conducive for high scoring affairs, and Gold Coast are 23–12 as an over prospect as an interstate outsider of more than three goals. But other than that — stay away.
St Kilda vs. West Coast
Baz and Gordo: St Kilda to win and cover (-4.5) and Over 173
Why? The Saints and Eagles both sit on the edge of the Top 8 making this game absolutely critical to both team’s finals fortunes.
West Coast’s form against St Kilda is excellent, they have won eight straight against St Kilda, including the last three at Etihad Stadium.
St Kilda conversely have had a horrible run of form of late and have struggled to kick even a competitive, let alone winning score BUT the Saints are now ‘playing for Rooey.’
Nick Riewoldt will start his retirement tour this weekend and (possibly more importantly) St Kilda get Tim Membrey back who has been a barometer for the Saints this season — when Membrey kick two or more goals, St Kilda usually win.
St Kilda’s mids and small forwards will be far too quick for an Eagles side that features both Mitchell and Priddis.
Don’t be afraid to roll in the overs as well, as under the dome we should see goals galore!
Richmond vs. Hawthorn
Baz and Gordo: Richmond win and cover (-4.5) and Under 164
Why? Don’t be fooled Hawthorn are still rebuilding (and more importantly re-learning) and the suspension of Luke Hodge is huge for the Hawks.
Without him setting up behind the ball, Hawthorn lose a pivotal ‘play-caller’ or in many ways an on-field coach and obviously a star player.
Coming up against Richmond, and their unique forward structure Hawthorn could be found wanting without their ‘spiritual leader.’
Richmond will borrow elements of Sydney’s ‘cluster-breaking-blueprint’ but will probably be slightly more expansive with the ball in hand but don’t expect this match to be an overs one.
The Tigers and the Hawks are a combined 27–9 under this year and everything we have seen this year suggests that Sunday will be a low-scoring affair.
Richmond are a huge under team at the MCG and Hawthorn are a big under team in the rare situation as an underdog. Unders (seeing a trend yet?) could be pick of the round.
Adelaide vs. Port Adelaide
Baz and Gordo: Under 160
Why? The rains are coming and while ‘anything can happen in a Showdown’ if the BOM forecast can be trusted, this game could be a slogfest.
Showdowns are incredibly hard to predict, and form often offers no real true indiction on performance in these one-off blockbusters.
Wet, wild and hotly contested — the best play again is unders but strap yourself in for one of the games of the year!
