What are the Odds?! Footy Forecast for Round 22
Every week the boys from What are the Odds?! breakdown the angles and look for the value in the upcoming weekend’s AFL matches.
Here’s where the action is according to Baz and Gordo:
Adelaide vs. Sydney
Baz and Gordo: Adelaide to win and cover (-9.5) and Over 170 points
Why? Now if this was Grand Final Day at the MCG, we’d be leaning towards Sydney but it’s not — it’s Friday night at Adelaide Oval in Round 22. The Crows at home are still the most formidable side in the AFL and not even a red hot Sydney will knock them off. Adelaide are 8–2 against Top 8 teams (one of those loses was against Geelong at Kardinia Park) and Adelaide’s multi-pronged forward poses too many scoring threats for Sydney to handle. Adelaide lead the competition in scoring shot production and can create shots everywhere, from ‘Eddie’s Pocket’ and ‘Big Tex’ beyond 50. With the forecast for a clear evening, expect a high scoring affair in which the Crows cover the line and the over on the total points.
Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide
Baz and Gordo: Port Adelaide to win and Over 169 points
Why? Have far as ‘pretenders’ go, the Western Bulldogs are elite. They went into last weekend’s ‘revenge’ game on a four game win streak but for the season the Dogs are 2–10 against Top 8 teams and it showed against GWS.
The Dogs were horrible last week and some of their players, like Tom Liberatore, Luke Dahlhaus and Jake Stringer, are nowhere near the form of last year, perhaps they are a finally regressing to the mean.
Based on fundamental attacking KPIs the Bulldogs should have pushed the Giants last week — the Dogs took 14 marks inside 50, (GWS: 15) laid 10 tackles inside 50, (GWS: 11) and took 22 shots at goal (GWS: 25) but they lost by 50 points! Why? The Dogs went inside 50 65 times for only 22 shots — Western Bulldogs problem is simple: their forward 50 entry quality is poor and inside 50 personnel is poor as well.
The Bulldogs’ defensive efficiency has dropped off as well — in 2016 the Dogs conceded scores from 48% their opponents forward 50 entries, this season that is up to 60%.
The announcement of Bob Murphy’s retirement feels like a last ditch effort by Luke Beveridge to squeeze the last bit of emotional motivation out of his match day 22 but it won’t be enough for the Dogs to get over the line.
Port Adelaide certainly look the clear winner for us — the ability and willingness to create shots and take them from anywhere will prove stretch the Dogs’ defence to much and to cap it all off, the Power are excellent as an interstate underdogs.
Collingwood v Geelong
Baz and Gordo: Geelong to cover (-14.5) and Over 168 points
Why? Collingwood have troubled Geelong in the past but the Cats are playing very well and probably more importantly the Pies have put the cue in the rack for 2017 with De Goey, Pendlebury, Varcoe, Grundy (suspended) and Wells — just to name a few — missing from this week’s clash.
Geelong were convincing against the a follow Top 4 team last week, and scarily that was without a full cohort of healthy stars to choose from.
All season, Collingwood have been able to stay in games and their midfield is solid, but they just cannot kick winning scores and too often lapse into periods of play where poor ball use and turnovers allow their opponents to score heavily and quickly against them.
The Cats are hunting the slim possibility of a home final and have too much to play for to let this slip.
GWS v West Coast
Baz and Gordo: GWS to cover (-32.5)
Why? Since Baz’s spray about the ‘Greater Western Sydney Pretenders’, that Giants have been in imperious form. They’ve embarrassed their opponents in the last fortnight and are making a imperialistic charge to a Top 2 finish.
Like Adelaide, GWS back their players to take shots from anywhere in and around their Forward 50, but unlike any other side in the competition, the Giants never seems to miss. Will they regress to the means like Adelaide and level out at ‘average’ conversion rates, or is this the start of the Giants’ Dynasty that everyone has been quietly dreading (or waiting for with anticipation.)
Only three letters can save the Eagles in this one: JJK. Despite missing five games this season Josh J Kennedy still leads the Coleman tally and West Coast will need another bag from their key forward to keep up with the Giants.
However, we think the Giants’ defence is too good to let the happen and this one could get ugly for Eagles fans and Giants haters alike.
Gold Coast v Essendon
Baz and Gordo: Essendon Cover (-21.5)
Why? At quarter time of Lions vs. Suns last week, we thought the old “Sack the Coach Honeymoon Period” had worked a treat for Gold Coast. By full time we realised that it did diddly-squat as the Suns were 10 goals losers and seemed yet again dis-interested in playing for either the jumper or their spots on the list.
Gold Coast are in disarray, with the uncertainty over key players and a new coach and while we used to joke about Tom Lynch saying “I’m sick of losing” now we just feel sorry for him…
Essendon play great football — in attack, and have a lot going for them with their speed and ball use, but they still suffer from inconsistency but we can’t see Gold Coast making them work for this one.
Worst case scenario for the Bombers is a shoot-out, and that’s something we know that they can win.
Carlton v Hawthorn
Baz and Gordo: Hawthorn to win (1–39) and Under 181 points
Why? Hawthorn are looking really good, we could over react and say ‘scary good’ and it has been built of the back fo their defence. Since “super Coach” Alistair Clarkson rolled James Sicily and Jack Gunston behind the ball, he’s transformed the Hawks from a side that conceded 100+ points in their first six games to the best defence in teh AFL sicne the bye.
They would scare the life out of a few teams if they won enough games early to make the finals.
Conversely, Carlton have has a very disappointing end to the season. The loss of Patrick Cripps saw the daw of Carlton’s bad run of form and eight consecutive losses is evidence that the young Blues have run out of legs.
Hawthorn should account for Carlton comfortably but haven’t been a team to put opponents to the sword this year, so the unders is the better play in this one.
Melbourne v Brisbane
Baz and Gordo: Melbourne to win (1–39) and Under 195 points
Why? Melbourne are a solid Top 8 team but no more than that, and they are also a team that is low of scoring diversity. The Demons have relied too heavily on good ball movement alone to open up the forward line and create high quality chances.
Their leading goal scorer is Jeff Garlett, a ‘Joe the Goose’ expert — Garlett 21 shots within 15m of goal, 5 more than anyone else in the competition.
It’s a lack of alternate routes to goal however that has cost the Demons this season. Melbourne have taken the third fewest shots from outside 50 this season and have frequently turned the ball over trying to set up better shots with chip kicks inside 50 — the result? They rank 16th in the competition for scores per I50.
However, Brisbane are not a great team and they shouldn’t trouble the Dees.
While the Lions are well placed for next season, and many seasons after, they aren’t ready to compete against Top 8 sides.
So the Dees win comfortably but Melbourne won’t score enough to challenge the line or go over the total.
St. Kilda v North Melbourne
Baz and Gordo: St Kilda to cover (-18.5) and Over 186 points
Why? Both teams are coming off disappointing defeats with St. Kilda in particular, throwing away their season last week with a terrible display and it seems that now the cue is in the rack for both of these clubs.
There is no doubt the Saints have the talent to compete against anyone, but they haven’t played like a club that truly desires to play finals football this season.
Realistically they should still beat North comfortably enough this week but it is too little, too late as far as their season is concerned.
Fremantle v Richmond
Baz and Gordo: Richmond to cover (+19.5) and Under 166 points
Why? In a world first — Baz is tipping Richmond to cover the line for the third consecutive week. Conventional wisdom would suggest that the trip west would be a challenge for the Tigers but history suggests they would rather play Fremantle in Perth than in Melbourne.
Fremantle showed nothing last week, the Dockers have nothing to play for this week and shouldn’t provide too much resistance to the Tigers’ charge for a Top 4 spot.
The one guarantee for this game? It will go way under — Richmond average 85 points per game and Fremantle 70 and expect the Dockers to be kept to well below that on Sunday.
Feature Picks for Round 22
BEST BET
Baz: Carlton vs. Hawthorn under 181 points @ $1.91
Gordo: ‘Romance is Dead’ Port Adelaide win @ $2.00
VALUE BET
Gordo: ‘Winners are Grinners’ Adelaide to cover (-7.5) and over 170 points @ $3.40
MULTI BET
Gordo: Over Unders: Ade vs. Syd (Over 169) + Carl vs. Haw (Under 181) + Fre vs. Rich (Under 166) @ $7.07
“SHOUT THE BAR”
Baz: WB v PA (Under 169) + Carl v Haw (Under 181) + Melb v Bris (Under 195) + StK v NM (Over 186) + Fre v Rich (Under 166) @ $25
Gordo: ‘Cover Up Winter Special’ Adelaide, Geelong, GWS, Essendon, Hawthorn, Richmond all to win ‘Against the Spread’ @ $50
