What makes Super Bowl LII so… super?
It’s Super Bowl week in the US of A… This year freezing (literally) Minnesota hosts the biggest show on American turf and it’s well worth a look on Monday morning. (AEDT)
By Saul Wajntraub
You know those annual events that make you tune into a sport for a once a year fix even if you are not a fan? The FA Cup, the Champions League Final, the final round of The Masters… (for many the Melbourne Cup.)
Well, the US daddy of all casual viewing events is here!
Super Bowl LII pits AFC champions, the New England Patriots against the NFC’s finest; the Philadelphia Eagles, in a true David versus Goliath matchup.
Ok, that’s a pretty big cliché early on but when you look at this game it’s hard to not to feel like all the cards are stacked towards New England.
The Patriots are chasing their third crown in four seasons & their sixth title since 2002 (during a period of dominance that includes two upset Super Bowl losses, shout out to New York Giants fans…)
New England’s quarterback, Tom Brady is trying to become the first player to ever win six titles and is widely seen as the game’s greatest ever quarterback. Brady is the oldest player in the NFL but will be crowned MVP for the third time this season, showing he’s still the best. His amazing ability to make plays when it matters at quarterback is matched only by his supreme physical condition. Brady believes he has a method to hold back the ravages of time and that injuries are a product of poor preparation. The ‘TB12 method’ is his way to ‘achieve a lifetime of sustained peak performance’.
Yep, Brady is a bit of nut job but as they say, “the proof of the pudding is in the eating” and in Brady’s case usually the eating of his patented avocado ice-cream. Eight Super Bowls, a likely six rings and becoming league MVP at 40 years of age are pretty good reasons to follow the TB12 method.
New England’s coach Bill Belichick has already led his team to more titles than any other man and is the second most winningest coach in NFL history. The only coach he is behind is the man who the NFL champions’ trophy is named after, Vince Lombardi, giving you a sense of how great Belichick’s record is. We are talking greatness of the most elite kind in a team sport with this two decade partnership between evergreen quaterback and always innovating head coach.
The Patriots are not everyone’s cup of tea however, as you don’t win that much and make a whole lot of friends with vanquished foe along the way. Jealousy is rife whenever the Pats are mentioned to other NFL fans but some of the hatred is well justified. If there is a way to ‘bend the rules’ the Patriots have taken the opportunity. The controversies over the last decade have ranged from deflating footballs in playoff games (2013) to spying on other teams play calling (2007) to an uncanny ability to separate a players potential benefit to the team from his off field character, and any flaws found in therein.
Bill Belichick is your classic old school coach; tough as nails, hard as imaginable on his players and generally unpleasant to deal with for the media or those not helping him win. (Think Mick Malthouse at his best / worst multiplied fivefold!)
Belichick started full time coaching when he was only 23 as the ‘Assistant to the Special Teams Coach’ and coached at seven organisations on his journey to the Pats. He spent plenty of time dealing with the focus of coaching a New York team before working his way to head coach at the Patriots in 2000, the same day he was appointed head coach of the New York Jets, (yep he’s that sort of character!)
Belichick, with a lot of help from the media trying to understand why he is so good at winning, created ‘The Patriot Way’ — a code that the team lives and plays by.
“It (The Patriot Way) is just more about the way you carry yourself, about the way you manage expectations, and know what expectations are.”
(Dont’a Hightower, New England Linebacker)
What you see from New England through Belichick as a figurehead is a disciplined, insular, aggressive, gruff, thoroughly ruthless organisation with high turnover and willingness to place the ability to help the Pats win over anything.
Belichick is arguably the most interesting leader in sports, but what isn’t up for debate is his legacy at the Patriots; turning a franchise that had only made two Super Bowls (for zero wins) into one of the great all time sports dynasties: 16 straight winning seasons, eight Super Bowl appearances and favoured for a sixth ‘Lombardi trophy’.
The Patriots have had an interesting year off field with their three key people Brady, Belichick and the teams’ owner Robert Kraft trying to work through the age of question of: “Should you start a transition phase within this team when your quarterback is 40 years old, you have a gun backup who is ready to play and your 40 year old QB believes he has five (or more!) years of football left?”
Add to that (now solved) conundrum the fact that one of or both the Pats offensive and defensive coordinators are highly likely to get head coaching gigs at other clubs in the offseason and there is a feel (or is just hope?) that the dynasty may be coming to an end.
Of course there are two sides playing in Super Bowl LII and there are some enjoyable fairy-tale aspects to the Eagles making the big dance this season…
Philly, in comparison to the high flying Patriots, are an unsuccessful franchise. Since the Super Bowl era, the Eagles have only played in two finales, for two losses in 1981 and in 2005, the later curiously to the Pats in a 3 point thriller.
Three seasons ago the Eagles sacked their coached and sold the farm. They traded a lot of future draft picks to get the No.2 pick in the 2016 Draft to get access to their ‘Franchise’ quarterback and saviour Carson Wentz. This league is all about great coaches and gun quarterbacks and if you have neither you are going nowhere. So, the Eagles made their play for the QB they needed.
Last season, the Eagles finished last in the NFC East (their four team division) in coach Doug Pederson’s first season. Carson Wentz (the Eagles’ saviour, remember?) struggled, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns and as the year went on the Eagles asked him to throw less and less. Importantly however, Pederson kept starting Wentz to build his experience, a move that paid off with a February trip in Minnesota one season later.
The Eagles have finished with 7–9 records in the last two seasons and were predicted for a last place finish in their division this time round with the Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins and New York Gants all shaping as possible Super Bowl candidates to represent the NFC.
This season however, has been an impressive mix of brutal defence, great discipline and some of the most exciting quarterback play from across the league by Wentz.
From a potential draft bust to likely MVP, the Eagles’ fairytale ride this season was built on the back of the brilliant plays from the sophomore QB. Wentz has turned two well recruited wide receivers, Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith into dangerous deep threats, complementing a powerful running game.
Part of the reason for the Eagles massive underdog tag however, is that the brilliant Carson Wentz won’t be the QB for Philly on Super Bowl Sunday. Instead it will be the Eagles’ back-up Nick Foles. Foles was originally drafted by the Eagles in 2011. He in fact, took them to the playoffs and even got a Pro-Bowl nod in his three years as QB. His form tapered and he was traded for the 2015 season and traded again last year before landing back at Philly with his position in the game appearing to be reliable back-up.
On December 10, (Week 14 v the Rams) Carson Wentz’s knee gave way and his season ended with a torn ACL. It became Foles’ job to keep the then 10–2 Eagles’ Super Bowl dreams alive. Foles struggled early with trying to make plays like Wentz but coach Doug Pederson refined and simplified the offence and the Eagles have been undefeated with Foles at QB in five games including the dismantling of the league‘s No.1 ranked defence, Minnesota, last game.
Doug Pederson, the Eagles’ rookie head coach in his second season at Philly, is a rarity in the NFL. He is a former QB who has transitioned into being a head coach. It’s a strange quirk that the position requiring the most on field strategic thinking in the game has not produced many (if any) great coaches, but that’s something to look deeper into in the off season.
Pederson won a Super Bowl as a back-up QB with the Packers and had stints with seven other teams in his 13 year career and could fairly be described as a ‘journeyman’. His coaching career started with the Eagles and Pederson only had a brief stop at Kansas City before getting the big job. As you can imagine there was little excitement about his hire but his ability as a play caller, (only some coaches call their offensive plays) Pederson has been instrumental in fast tracking Wentz’s development and the rapid remodelling of the offence with Foles under centre.
A QUICK TIMEOUT… (get used to those on Monday!)
When we say the Eagles are unsuccessful, there is whole other level of unsuccessful in the NFL and sport in general… and they are called the Cleveland Browns.
That trade of picks the Eagles made to get the No.2 pick was with the Browns, who incidentally didn’t (and still don’t) have a quarterback of NFL standard and have gone 1–31 over the last two years while watching Wentz tear the league up this year. (Ouch!)
Now, the Browns go to the draft this year hoping to find a quarterback as good as Wentz…
GAMEDAY — What are the keys to winning for either side?
There is a vital common theme for the both defences in this game; pressure the QB.
The Eagles blitz less than most NFL sides, (most sides blitz 1 in 3.5 plays, the Eagles are closer to 1 in 5 plays) but are still the No.4 ranked defence on points allowed. (the Pats are No.5)
For Philly to win, Brady has to be under pressure, and either forced to run or to throw quickly. If Brady has time, he WILL find the open man.
The Patriots offensive line is not their strength so Fletcher Cox is the key player in the game. If Cox gets to Brady often or the Pats have to double team him all day, allowing Chris Long and others to get to the New England No.12, then Brady’s ability to win the game for the Pats is reduced. The Eagles are ranked the №1 defence against the run but 17th against the pass so expect Brady to use his arm to implement a death by a thousand cuts method of dissection of the Eagles defence.
On the other side of the ball the Patriots will blitz Foles while trying to make him think they are covering the pass. In simplifying the Eagles offence for Foles the key play that has been working is RPO.
Run / Pass Option plays ask the QB to look and count where the defensive numbers are before calling the play. If the defence are close then it is assumed they are defending the run so a pass play is called. If numbers are further back then a run is called.
The Eagles use RPO plays more than any other team and you can be sure that Belicheck has been working all week on how he slows the Eagles when they use RPO. RPO also involves quick and short passes but just throwing short & running the ball is not going to beat New England. Philadelphia must find a way to get the ball deep to either Torrey Smith or Alshon Jeffrey.
The plays when a Foles throw is high, heading down field will be the big moments in the game. Get it right and Foles can break it open for Philly. Get it wrong and turn the ball over, and this game is gone.
The Eagles cannot afford to turn the ball over because it is almost certain the Patriots won’t. Only the Rams threw fewer interceptions than the Pats this season, and the Patriots don’t turn the ball over when it matters and they don’t give away big penalties. (The Patriots are ranked No.2 in fewest penalty yards conceded… much to many fans’ chagrin.)
All the small things have to be perfect for the Eagles to pull this off!
On offence, these sides rank equal 2nd, scoring 28.6 points per game. On defence they are ranked 4th and 5th with just .01 PPG separating them.
Interestingly, the Patriots are 30th (of 32) on total yards conceded on defence but rank 5th on points. This ‘bend but don’t break’ defence with no big names is the reason defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is very likely to be coaching his last game with the Pats before getting the head job at Detroit Lions.
A quirky stat that shows how Belicheck and his coaches get better as they see what the other coaches are doing during the game is that the Patriots have never scored a point in the 1st quarter of a Super Bowl… FROM SEVEN ATTEMPTS. New England are not always that good keeping control of games early, they got themselves 28–3 down in last years’ SB and 10 points down at half time in this years’ championship game v the Jaguars.
It takes a while for Bill to work the other mob out. Until then his aim is damage control.
THE PLAY SHEET — What to look out for:
- An early Eagles lead
- Lots of short plays, both passing and running, from both teams
- Brady to throw 50 passes
- Running backs to catch 10+ passes for both teams
- Running back to be MVP.
- Philly to struggle to score more and more as the game goes on
- Gronk to be a major player in key moments
- Eagles to try to get the ball medium or deep to Jeffrey and Smith, if they can the upset is on
- Brady to make a brilliant 3rd & long pass in Q4
- James White to run for a Patriot touchdown
- The Patriots to get the best of referring
- Foles to be sacked on a key late 3rd down play
- It’s gonna be cold!
- Matt Patricia (Pats Defensive coach) on the bench to be very very excited
THE WATCH LIST — Who to look out for:
Rob ‘Gronk’ Gronkowski is the game’s best tight end and Brady’s go to guy.
Danny Amendola has taken a pay cut for three years running to help fit others in. He is also a speed demon, who has a knack of making a big play when it matters
James Harrison is an ex-Pittsburgh Steeler and a 15 year veteran who was cast out mid-season by the Steelers and is here now on Super Bowl day with the Pats. He made two big plays last game and is likely to do something great again on Sunday, because that’s what Belichick recruits do.
Nick Foles is looking to do something ‘Brady-esque’. Brady was the last back-up to win a Super Bowl in 2002 but Foles has been so good for the Eagles. If he can pick the right play and get the ball out quick he will give his team a chance.
Jay Ajayi is the last piece of the puzzle for Philly. Acquired from Miami mid-season, he gives the Eagles two different but very effective running backs
Le Garrette Blount won the Super Bowl as a Patriot last year but decided to ‘get paid’ and went to Philly this year. Can he give coach Pederson the inside word?
Fletcher Cox is the key for the Eagles. If Brady sees lots of the green No.91 in his face as he tries to throw the ball downfield, then the Eagles are on their way to winning. Cox is probably the Eagles best player and is the key to putting enough pressure on Brady to stop him finding his targets. Watching how Belicheck takes Cox out of the game will be fascinating.
James White always seems to run a TD in for the Pats in playoffs.
Torey Smith and Alshon Jeffrey are the Eagles’ scoring options. If you don’t hear these guys names being called on Sunday there can only be onewinner. The Eagles will have to get a pass or two over the back of the Pats secondary to win.
So… WHO WINS?!
Here is the easy bit, the Patriots win.
More often than not the Patriots win because under pressure, late in games Brady makes plays and Belichick figures how to make sure the opposition can’t make plays!
The Eagles have played two outstanding playoff games at home and are a great chance to lead and even have the chance to win… which is amazing considering not many outside Pennsylvania thought that Philly could make it through a playoff game let alone alone the way to the big dance.
So underrated were the Eagles that they started as outsiders in both of their home playoff games, something that had never happened before.
The Eagles best two players are both missing this game with long term injuries including the quarterback who turned the team around. So… do they really believe they can beat Goliath?
The easy thing to do on the couch is to cheer for the underdog and the Eagles have played the role of underdog to a T but there is something bigger in play in Super Bowl LII.
Superbowl Sunday 2018 is really a story about the New England Patriots, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and how close they are to unique greatness.
Regardless of what circumstances appear during the game, the Pats will find a way to win. Brady’s seven Super Bowls worth of experience against the Eagles total seven Super Bowls experience says it all.
The strength of character from the men who control the Patriot team say it as well and most importantly 16 years of modern NFL history says it better than everything else… but the Patriots will have to earn it.
If Philly can find a way to RPO their way to victory, it will be the one of the great upsets. Either way it’s going to be great theatre so get the popcorn out and be patient with the ads!
