How to Make A Superstar
The NBA’s ruling class continues to get larger with new incomers. Will they remain among the best of the best?
Superstars aren’t born overnight. The slow, gradual development of talent typically is the surest way to elite status, but the rare exception still occurs (looking at you Draymond Green). This process is observed but not always fully absorbed until we see the All-NBA talent in front of us. This season we’ve gotten a peek at what might be substantial growth from a select few stars around the league.
Jimmy Butler
Over the last couple of years it was well known throughout the league what kind of talent Butler was. He was universally regarded as a top-25 player during the 2014–2016 seasons earning himself a max contract as a restricted free agent in the summer of 2015. That production was expected to be around what his peak would be considering his age (27) and his reliance of athleticism in his game. But the 2015–16 season was full of disappointment from the Bulls both on and off the court, and then Butler was rumored to be on the trading block further souring the relationship.
The worry coming into this season was that Butler would have to cease control of the team and the offense with the arrival of Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade. That hasn’t happened. Butler has grabbed the post-Rose Bulls by the horns and pulled them toward relevancy by bumping up his numbers across the board. His usage rate is currently sitting at a career-high of 27.7 while his points per game (25.2), total rebounding percentage (9.8), true shooting percentage (59.0), player efficiency rating (26.3) and win shares per 48 minutes (.254) have all followed suit.
Butler was dragging the team to a top-10 offense before they hit a skid over the past couple of weeks. The question is how real is this top-10 NBA player, and is it sustainable?
Taking the next step can be a culmination of things, but what first jumps out at you as a reason is his hike in free throw attempts. Butler is currently averaging 9.5 FTA per game this year, which would beat his next highest number by 2.4 attempts. Only 17 players have hit that mark over the entirety of a season since 1997. Part of that is simply his willingness to accept more contact on drives to the basket this season as he’s currently leading the league in FT’s off of drives in the league at (3.9).
Butler missed a chunk of last season due to a knee injury, which may have been part of what was sapping him of his athleticism. He’s always been a dominating force getting the ball to the basket, but this year his explosion is more evident. That extra lift not only helps on crowded trips to the hoop, but on his jump shot where he can launch up over longer defenders. His percentage on shots taken in the mid-range (every shot that comes outside of the paint but inside the 3-point arc) has increased to 40.4 this season from 37.3 the year before. That difference isn’t monumental this early in the season, but by taking 6.3 a game it shows what kind of difference it can make. What is more incredible with Butler is his percentage in the paint this year. This is usually a tough area to shoot a high percentage from, but Butler is currently at 50 percent on his 2.5 attempts after only nailing these shots at a 37.3 clip the year before. This is where those hops come in handy when taking on contact in crowded spaces and still being able to finish
The concern surrounding Butler is that his efficiency may dip a bit on these tougher shots, or that he won’t be able to get to the free throw line at the same rate over the entirety of the season. Reasonably, it’s fair to expect one or possibly both of these things to happen. But a slight hit in these categories still leaves Butler an indomitable force that the league has to live with, and one that can remain a top-10 player.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Even after knowing his name for years it still kind of feels good to be able to correctly pronounce it in front of an audience of non-NBA fans. The “Greek Freak” is now in his 4th year in Milwaukee and is making strides that Vine can barely due justice.
The development of Antetokounmpo still feels early on, that the versatility and breadth of his game is infinite. Year four shouldn’t feel like that yet here we are looking at a 23.9/9.1/5.8 stat line thinking there’s even more. That’s mostly due to Antetokounmpo turning 22 a month ago and the fact that he’s grown a couple of inches since entering the NBA. The lanky, international prospect is cobbling together a season that’s brought his potential to new heights, but how far will it go?
Antetokounmpo’s bread and butter is getting to the basket, and he’s shown this season that he does it better than pretty much everyone not named LeBron James. He has taken the 3rd most field goal attempts in the restricted area this season (8.6 per game), but is currently sitting as the 2nd most efficient on those shots of players who take at least five a game (70.2 percent). That is not normal for a player operating as the de facto point guard as the only other guard in shouting distance of Antetokounmpo is James Harden, who’s hitting five attempts a game at a 65.5 rate. His length helps him get around most defenders, especially when he drives in from one part of the court and finishes on the opposite side of the basket, but what’s most impressive is the explosiveness he displays on these runs at the rim. He’s able to stay in the air long enough to double clutch dunks and can hop right back up for put backs after attacking the basket on missed shots faster than most. Antetokounmpo was fantastic on these opportunities last year, but his slight increase in attempts and efficiency puts him in elite territory this season, and it doesn’t look like that it’s likely to change.
Part of those chances he’s able to get is due to his ability to push the ball in transition. Since he plays a lot of center on the defensive end he’s able to gather the defensive rebound and shoot right out of a cannon up the court. This typically causes matchup confusions for the defense as they are racing to cover the correct man on the run, but by the time they get it right he’s flown by them for an easy dunk. Once again, the incredible thing about Antetokounmpo is that he’s able to score in transition at such a high rate with crazy efficiency. He has the 4th highest amount of possessions in transition and is fifth in scoring frequency (the percentage of times a possession ends with at least 1 point) with 65.3 percent.
What holds him back is still his shooting. He’s currently sitting at a 29.3 3-point percentage and has taken just five shots a game outside of the paint. He’s creatively gotten around his lack of range by taking advantage of the transition opportunities along with attacking soft close outs by stepping into passes, which gives him a head of steam when rolling to the rim.
It’s hard to judge exactly where Antetokounmpo ranks among the NBA’s best at this exact time, but his first All-Star appearance seems imminent among a possible place on an All-NBA ballot.
Kemba Walker
Three straight seasons of averaging nearly identical numbers left analysts under the assumption that there wasn’t much more to expect from Walker. His prowess at attacking the rim has always been on display, but his inability to score efficiently always left him as one of the average point guards in the NBA. Walker finally put to bed those questions last season when he had his first mini-breakout, becoming more efficient from the field and taking on a larger offensive role for the Hornets. Most pointed to a sure statistical decline from Walker this year, but he’s proved the doubters wrong with an even better season this year. Can the 26-year-old keep up the hot streak?
The glaring stat with Walker is the 3-point shooting. Sitting at 41.7 percent on 6.5 attempts seems incredibly unsustainable for a player that had a career 3-point percentage below 32. Last season Walker was able to bump that number up to 37.1, but looking for the difference of why he’s been more efficient is mostly based on his ability to hit with a defender on him. The likelihood he can keep up that level of efficiency with defenders tight on him is low, mostly due to his size, but Walker’s ability to gain space with crossovers and shoulder shakes should give him some chance of repeating these results.
“Smart” shots are typically associated with efficient ones, and those tend to be 3-pointers and takes at the basket for most players. Walker’s bump in 3-point percentage has been instrumental in his marked improvement but being a tenacious driver to the basket has been just as important. Walker is one of four players in the NBA that are under 6’4 that have taken at least six shots in the restricted area this season, and he’s hit them at a 57.7 rate. A lot of creativeness is needed for him to get these shots off, but Walker’s one of the best at avoiding contact and skying shots against the backboard.
At 26, Walker is in a similar spot to Butler in his career. Finishing this season at this rate would show that he has fully taken the next step into the elite rank of point guards. You could make a case that he has been a top-5 point guard this season, something hard to imagine with the crop of top tier talent at the position.
Saying he is above all of his counterparts in this grouping would be an extreme, but putting him in the same tier is deserved. He is firmly in the middle of the pack of most, if not all important statistics and is currently keeping a team devoid of any true offensive plusses afloat as the 15th best in the league. Without Walker this team would crater to a bottom-five offense in the NBA considering they’d be relying on the offensive prowess of Frank Kaminsky and company.
All of these players have gotten to this point in different ways and will continue on altered routes throughout the rest of their careers. One may become a top-5 player player and another may just be lucky to enjoy a year or two among the point guard’s elite class. Regardless, these breakouts are notable and deserve recognition while they are happening.
