It’s Decision Time for the Memphis Grizzlies
Can the Grizzlies afford to remain static and expect different results for this season?
You know in Madden when you run the same five plays every time and you keep winning? At a certain point you usually ask yourself if you should consider diversifying the playbook or raising the level of difficulty up a notch. The Grizzlies are your Madden squad and they are happy, and content. They’ve sidestepped the Grit ‘n’ Grind questions with a respectable performance against the Spurs and have become more assured in their coaching hire.
But they face a summer in which they’ll have to decide if running those five plays are going to get the job done anymore. The modernization of the Grizzlies offense has helped keep them running smoothly, but with contracts up for a couple of key pieces of the past it’s time to determine what the best course of action will be for them. Let’s dive into each player and determine what they may expect on the market and whether they make sense for the team going forward.
Zach Randolph
Randolph gracefully accepted a scoring role off of the bench this season, and was effective. Averaging 14.1 points and 8.2 rebounds per game showed that he can still play a little, and be a pillar of the second unit. That is important and has value in today’s game, especially for the Grizzlies as they have a tendency to lack offensive firepower at times. But how long can they afford to rely on the soon to be 36-year-old to be that driving force? Randolph more so than any other player reflects the crossroads the Grizzlies are facing in deciding on how they want to structure their team around the likes of Marc Gasol and Mike Conley.
From a pure basketball standpoint the question seems to be a bit easier to answer from the Grizzlies side of things. At his age and declining efficiency, Randolph isn’t as attractive of a player as he once was. Add in his defensive limitations with his lack of 3-point shooting and you have some worry over how he’ll be able to be a net positive on a longer contract. In the role of “scoring big man off the bench” he should remain an effective player, as long as they get the years right.When looking at what he’s done for the community and the incredible impact he’s had on the franchise you’d hope they’d be able to work out some type of deal to preserve the relationship, even on a one or two year deal.
This is where it all gets complicated thanks to that pesky thing known as the “salary cap”. More than likely the Grizzlies will avoid going into the luxury cap retaining the rights to all of their free-agents, forcing them to hope for a couple of hometown discounts. One of those will almost certainly be Randolph, and the Grizzlies will hope the relationship they’ve fostered will lead to a cheaper deal.
If he stays in Memphis: Two years, $18 million
If he leaves: Two years, $25 million
Tony Allen
Allen has already been rumored to possibly be willing to take a hometown discount after he said, “I’m not trying to break the bank” in regards to his status with the team. That should be huge in regards to keeping the core going a bit longer. Allen continued to show how dominant of a defensive force he could be throughout the season and his presence was missed in the playoff matchup against the Spurs. His ability to cover one-on-one is a needed service for Memphis during the season, but the importance becomes magnified during the playoffs when one player performances become even more relied upon.
Analysts across the board continued to vote him in on their All-Defensive ballots so it should be no surprise that when the list gets revealed in July his name will be on it. The Grizzlies getting Allen on a two-year deal with Randolph would further the road they’ve been traveling while not altogether dumping a youth invigoration The restrictions they face won’t be solved by losing these two players, so retaining them on lower and shorter contracts becomes important to extending their winning window.
If he stays: Two years, $12 million
JaMychal Green
Green is an interesting subject to focus on for a host of reasons. One of which is his age of 26 (soon to be 27). Most restricted free-agents are a bit younger, making the likelihood that they remain with their club a bit higher. But the late start of Green throws an interesting twist into the situation he’ll face this offseason. From a personal perspective Green might opt to cash in on his first opportunity to grab a large contract on the free-agent market. Wings who can defend a variety of positions while shooting 38 percent from 3-point range are a hot commodity in the league. His season is actually quite similar to the one that Lance Thomas had a year ago. A player that fought through the league on 10-day contracts, defended the best forwards and showed some shooting efficiency from deep. The question for Thomas at the time will be one that teams use to question Green, can your shooting hold up?
That is the multi-million dollar question for Green and the Grizzlies. The lack of a large sample size may put a damper on his value, and with the likelihood that teams can offer a contract that the Grizzlies will match may cool off the market for his services a little. Not many teams will be able to just offer a robust contract while waiting out the matching period. For that reason I think we’ll find some middle ground on this deal. Green assuredly will do better than the four-year, $27 million deal that Thomas received last year. He may be best served to take a three-year deal to get back on the market when he turns 30, but theoretical scenarios are easier to point to from afar when you don’t have $40 million staring at you in the face.
If he stays: Three years, $33 million
If he leaves: Four years, $48 million
They should be able to steer clear of the luxury tax if they all sign for what I project them to. But if they don’t, the Grizzlies will be forced to engage in some salary cap gymnastics, most likely moving on from Brendan Wright and his $6 million contract. That will give them the flexibility of bringing back these pieces while having the mini-mid level exception that should net them a backup point guard or another wing that can shoot. If these players are willing and able to take a tad less than they could possibly make on the open market than the Grizzlies won’t necessarily have to make the decision to diversify everything they’ve been doing. They can continue the juggling act of incorporating some of their youngsters while utilizing their veterans when needed to continue ushering in the next era of Grizzlies basketball.
